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Sullla said:

Most of these predictions are pretty bad. Gears of War 2 comes to mind immediately. Last year, Halo 3 (unquestionably a bigger game) released over a month earlier and sold just under 7m copies. And it still wasn't the top holiday seller. Gears 2 will be lucky to manage something in the 4-5m range. (Remember, this is HOLIDAY sales, not lifetime.)

Resistance 2, Little Big Planet, and Fable 2 are simply laughable in this category of discussion.

Me, I'll take Guitar Hero 4 (or whatever they're calling it). Last year, GH3 sold 7.06m copies in the holiday period - more than anything else. I really don't see how any game gets close this year - assuming we're not counting Wii Sports/Play as usual. Wii Fit will do obscenely well, but not being a new release will slow sales down somewhat. Ditto for Mario Kart Wii. Wii Music and Animal Crossing aren't going to sell in this range, or if they do, it will take much longer than the holiday period to achieve it.

Guitar Hero World Tour in an easy victory this year.

The only game that sold more than Halo 3 last year was Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, and it was on three consoles...