Which game will sell the most this holiday season?

[Ail]

Zucas said:

vlad321 said:

Zucas said:

vlad321 said:
I was thinking until the end of December.

Well I get that but I mean the starting point haha. Like this week's sales data or next week's or what.

 

 

Oh sorry, Beginning of October till end end of December. Seems to be the hottest video game buying time in the year.

 

Alright thx. So Q4 2008. Well it's really then going to be between Gears of War 2 and Wii Fit. Who would have thought a game released last holiday season would be a main contender for best seller this holiday season.

My guesses though for Gears of War 2 by the end of the year is between 3-4 million. While Wii Fit has already sold so far about 850,000. It'll probably be at about 1.1 million by the end of the week. Usually holiday sales of big games show about 3-4x increase meaning Wii Fit could easily sale in some week around 1 million haha. Of course I don't see this as probably considering you have a little mroe to manufacture when it comes to Wii Fit as you have to make the balance board. However if we say that in 3 weeks of the year Wii Fit, the biggest weeks, it levels off to a tolerance of 600k a week then that's another 1.8 million. And then in the other 7 weeks it does it's normal average of 300k then that's another 2.1 million. Which of course add it all up and we are looking at 5 million in the timeframe.

Now remember that is tolerances which actually usually underestimates sales considering we know Wii Fit won't sell 300k a week on average during the last 10 weeks or 600k a week in those 3 there. But it works best just to show you the selling power of Wii Fit even without significant and normal holiday increases that games without a hardware would get.

So if Gears 2 can sell more than 5 million by the end of the year... which it'll be doing in a lot less time... then that will be the top dog... but it is highly doubtful that not only Gears 2 could sell more in that time than games that are more prevalent on the brand such as Halo 3 and Halo 2 or in the region such as GTA: Sa that this is not something I'm going to argue.

1. Wii Fit

2. Gears of War 2

 

And if Gears 2 does it then it deserves it because it would defy all trends and all logid which is possible in sales because you are trying to judge the stereotypes of human buying habits. Anyways sales behind that will include Resistance 2 with about 2-2.5 million and Animal crossing with 2-3 million(heavily dependent upon how Japan). And of course the other long term Wii game... Mario Kart Wii which should have about 2-3 million as well. Finally of course we have LittleBigPlanet, and some various multiplat games such as GHIV on 360 and Wii and COD4 on 360. These easily could go over the 2 million mark but I'll list it as such with rough estimates

1. Wii Fit- 5.00 million

2. Gears of War 2- 3.75 million

3. Mario Kart Wii- 3.00 million

4. Resistance 2, Fable II- 2.50 million

5. Animal Crossing: City Folk- 2.25 million

6. Call of Duty: World at War(360), LittleBigPlanet, and GH:WT(Wii,360), - 2.00 m

Differences between those 4 will be too negligble to give a certain difference. So this is my guesses. Seems almost unfair that games released so long ago will sell that much but Ninty definitely has a system that works.

UPDATED- almost forgot to put Fable II in there haha.

 

Are you saying GH:WT will sell 2 millions on the 360 and the same on the Wii ?

Because if that's the case it should be number one on your list then. I don't think the author of the thread was asking for single platforms sales but total sales of a single game accross platforms..