The Wii has probably had the most successful launch of all time in terms of hardware #'s, especially considering it's a first worldwide launch for Nintendo as well. Will the Wii surpass the 360's worldwide userbase by the end of '07? The analysts predict a neck-and-neck race in North America with the Wii likely selling a bit more in Europe and alot more in Asia. But will the difference in Asia be enough to essentially overcome the 1 year head start of the 360?? Will a 360 price cut and some big software releases bring more momentum to its side? Will the 360 hold the lead until the middle or the end of '08, whereby the Wii's lead in Japan would offset any 360 leads elsewhere? What do you guys think? This is turning out to be one *very* interesting generation.

There are 2 main factors from the Wii point of view: 1/ Manufacturing output 2/ Continued "sell-out" status If the 360 keeps to approx the same sales rate it has maintained over the last year or so (I think it will drop slightly, with increased competition from the PS3), the Wii could overtake it around Feb-March next year. Xmas is likely to be huge for the 360, with Halo, GTA, etc... But if Nintendo can upp the output to say ... 1.2 mill a month by August - then there is a chance they will be neck-to-neck by Xmas '07.

I'm reading this at page 12 on neogaf, and they were coincidentally bashing vgchart. Anyway, two words: Wii Sports. The thing is like a fucking virulent virus. If you let 5 friends play with the thing, chances are very good that one of them will get infected and rush out and line up for the Wii.

It's F*king addictive isnt it? Especially multiplayer. I think Wii Sports is one of the most fun games I've played in a long time... however if I compare it to a real game... it was one of the most disappointingly games ever too. 1) No complexity 2) Not enough content 3) Not enough depth 4) Gets boring after playing it for ~3 days straight. 5) (not a big gripe) but it makes your arm hurt. 6) (a big grip) HDTVs hate Wiimotes. :)

If Wii doesn't catch 360 before GTA4 comes out, I think it will take a long time for it to catch up. I think GTA is going to be a turning point, where more of that PS2 audience moves to the XBox camp, because the system is cheaper, and in fact could even have a larger price advantage by then. So basically, if Wii doesn't catch 360 in fall 07, it might not until fall 08... I think Wii will at least be close enough to 360 in Europe and NA, that once the Japanese lead is 10 million or more, Wii will pass it... Thing is, there is no historical precedent you can look at for Wii anymore... It is clear Wii will become the first Nintendo console to perform better than its predecessor, and that it will perform leaps and bounds better than its predecessors in Japan and Europe... Its really hard to know just how fast Wii could sell... Its hard to know how much Nintendo will be able to keep up with demand too...

Is any of this going to matter to the intended customer, though? "Non-gamers" may not value complexity, lots of content, "depth" as gamers understand it, or the ability to play the game for long periods over weeks and months like gamers are accustomed...

Well if Wii continues to sell near PS2 pace, it will land under 4 million LTD in Japan by year end. The XBOX 360 will probably reach a little over .5 million LTD in Japan by year end. This will give the Wii a regional advantage of under 3.5 million consoles. Microsoft has an advantage in U.S. and "other" of 5.64 million consoles according to this website. So for Nintendo to surpass Microsoft by year end, it would have to outsell Microsoft by well over 2 million units outside of Japan. This seems unlikely considering that Microsoft has outsold Wii head to head thus far, has no output problems, and is available in more markets. Halo is certainly a bigger seller than anything Nintendo has in its library. If Microsoft maintains its price point where it is, then Nintendo would probably have a shot, but otherwise I think Microsoft's lead may hold in '07 and '08. The Wii will dominate the XBOX 360 in Japan, but you have to remember that the Japanese market is a declining market and it is unlikely Wii can match the PS2 total sales due to strong competition from PS3. The U.S. and European markets are growing markets and are both twice the size of the Japanese market.

Note the That is coming from a gamer who plays everything and anything. and enjoys most anything that is good. (except sports games. I dont find them as fun normally) Wii sports is not your normal sports game tho! The Wii will succeed if there is more stuff as good as WiiSports comes out. And when I say succeed... I mean blow the doors off 360/PS3. I say Wii will pass 360 in 2008. I say PS3 will pass 360 in 2008 as well. I think Wii/PS3 will sell almost identical numbers at the end of 2007. (2007 numbers alone... I think PS3 will sell ~2 or 3million more in 2007 than Wii) A marketing problem for Nintendo and I think this will hurt them... is their european launch. They are letting PS3 get games... and When you've been waiting 3 months to get a console... you say. "I can get a PS3/360 now... and play it now... With good games." That is my fear for nintendo. ;)

Your point?

Actually, I'll have to dispute some of this. I was playing it on the weekend, when I discovered i had missed several of the training modes - and ALL of the fitness section (which is no big deal really). 1/ Pretty much agree, although I think its more complex than is originally obvious. Part of its secret. Had some really hardcore tennis matches on the weekend ;) 2/ Don't really agree. 5 sports - including 9 different golf courses. and 15 training modes. Could be more, but its heaps - for a FREE GAME. 3/ Same as 1. 4/ Boring - yes, when played for several days straight. But its something you keep coming back to, especially when new people to come around. As its essentially a multiplayer game, the experience varies based on who you play it with. (I find GT3/GT4 boring after an hour or so...). 5/ LOL :) I do find the energy involved in playing annoying at times... but that's because Im generally a lazy person :) 6/ huh? how so? (my semi-HD TV doesn't hate it at all)? Or are you one of these people that managed to cause thousands of dollars of damage by "letting go"? ;)