If Wii doesn't catch 360 before GTA4 comes out, I think it will take a long time for it to catch up. I think GTA is going to be a turning point, where more of that PS2 audience moves to the XBox camp, because the system is cheaper, and in fact could even have a larger price advantage by then. So basically, if Wii doesn't catch 360 in fall 07, it might not until fall 08... I think Wii will at least be close enough to 360 in Europe and NA, that once the Japanese lead is 10 million or more, Wii will pass it... Thing is, there is no historical precedent you can look at for Wii anymore... It is clear Wii will become the first Nintendo console to perform better than its predecessor, and that it will perform leaps and bounds better than its predecessors in Japan and Europe... Its really hard to know just how fast Wii could sell... Its hard to know how much Nintendo will be able to keep up with demand too...
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
