When will Wii surpass 360 (if ever)?

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Well if Wii continues to sell near PS2 pace, it will land under 4 million LTD in Japan by year end. The XBOX 360 will probably reach a little over .5 million LTD in Japan by year end. This will give the Wii a regional advantage of under 3.5 million consoles. Microsoft has an advantage in U.S. and "other" of 5.64 million consoles according to this website. So for Nintendo to surpass Microsoft by year end, it would have to outsell Microsoft by well over 2 million units outside of Japan. This seems unlikely considering that Microsoft has outsold Wii head to head thus far, has no output problems, and is available in more markets. Halo is certainly a bigger seller than anything Nintendo has in its library. If Microsoft maintains its price point where it is, then Nintendo would probably have a shot, but otherwise I think Microsoft's lead may hold in '07 and '08. The Wii will dominate the XBOX 360 in Japan, but you have to remember that the Japanese market is a declining market and it is unlikely Wii can match the PS2 total sales due to strong competition from PS3. The U.S. and European markets are growing markets and are both twice the size of the Japanese market.