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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Results (Switch 52.48m, Pokemon 16m)

siebensus4 said:
Super Mario Maker 2 sold not as good as I have expected. It was such a big hit on Wii U, but it seems that its sales have been cannibalized by NSMBUD. Two 2D Mario games within 6 months was maybe not a good idea.

Super Mario Maker-4.01 million

Super Mario Maker 3DS-3.40 million

Super Mario Maker 2-5.04 million

SMM2 has only been out 6 months, it has already outsold each previous version and will easily go on to outsell them combined and will likely pass 10 million.



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AlbiNecroxz said:
AlbiNecroxz said:

I'd say Just Dance 2020, Minecraft, Dragon Quest XI S, maybe The Witcher 3. There are 4 cause Yoshi's Crafted World is a million seller this FY

Ok maybe FIFA 20 and not TW3

Witcher 3 is still in the top 30 eshop games, and that is not even counting physical.  I think Witcher 3 is easily one of them, especially with the timing with the Netflix show.



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siebensus4 said:
Super Mario Maker 2 sold not as good as I have expected. It was such a big hit on Wii U, but it seems that its sales have been cannibalized by NSMBUD. Two 2D Mario games within 6 months was maybe not a good idea.

It outsold the original in less than 6 months and can probably leg it out to 10m so it definitely did great overall. I'm guessing you were expecting it to be as big as MK8D and Mario Odyssey which is reasonable given how much better those series have done on Switch. While NSMBUD certainly doesn't help, I think it's more that the game just isn't as impressive n ambitious as the aforementioned games. I mean it literally looks like an NES/SNES game half the time. :L



Lonely_Dolphin said:

All the people? If you can show me even one post who genuinely believed it'd sell poorly I will immediately buy Pokemon Sword, Shield, Pikachu, Eevee, Ultra Sun, Ultra Moon, Pokeball Plus, Sw/Sh expansion pass for both versions, Pokemon Bank and Home, Switch Online, and a ham sandwich.

There were most definitely posts here talking about the sales and controversy. The daily COMG thread had people saying its pre-orders were failing. VGChartz had a Sword/Shield sales prediction poll where a lot of people voted fewer than ten million or whatever it was. The thread were its first week Famitsu numbers came out with like 1.35 million in Japan initially had some here saying it was underperforming.

How many people on this website predicted its first 1.5 months would have sales about the same as X/Y and Sun/Moon's lifetime numbers? Find that prediction post for me.



Fantastic hardware numbers and even more awesome 1st party sales. A few notes from this data:

- Top 10 1st party Switch games sums between them 131'54M from the 310'65M total, a 42%. Wikipedia says Switch has around 2000 games in total..., so around 2000 games have sold the 179'11M left. The disparity between 1st party and 3rd party must be enormous. I wonder how many Switch games have surpassed 1M in sales....

- From Nintendo games, the most surprising number in sales for me is Super Mario Party with more than 9M units sold. It's obvious that mutiplayer games are working very well for Nintendo (MK 8 DX 22M, SSBU with 17M, Splatoon with 9M...).

- Pokemon Sword & Shield with 16M in just a few weeks is ridiculous...., but i don't expect Pokemon games to have muchmore legs, at least not like Zelda, MK or Smash, so we'll see where the game ends in the rankings.

- Luigi's Mansion 3 surpassed everyone expectations in sales and quality. Such a good story for Mario's brother.

- Animal Crossing New Horizons is going to obliterate sales next year, isn't it???

- 52'5M shipped by the end of the year puts Switch around 50M units sold to consumers, so leaving the number around 20'5M in 2019 which is what i expected from months ago. It's obvious Switch Lite and a far better lineup in 2019 than i anticipated (i have to give the reason to all the people that told me this around a year ago a i didn't believed them) helped a lot the sales. 2020 is still an enygma for me. I really don't know what is going to do in 2020.... I still expecting is going to do less than in 2019, but who knows.

All in all, everything is all good on Nintendo Land. Now we need to see what Nintendo is going to do with the second half of Switch life because the first half has put the bar very high and new gen is coming. Interesting times...



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Nu-13 said:
RolStoppable said:

Through twelve fiscal quarters:

Switch - 52.48m
PS4 - 47.4m

The PS4 shipped 20.1m in the following four fiscal quarters, so Switch must do 15m+ to stay ahead through four years. Doable, despite the upcoming ~2m in January to March 2020.

RolStoppable said:

That seems completely unnecessary. Nintendo's forecast for the rest of the fiscal year (19.5m for the year, so 1.76m to go) makes it clear that there's quite a bit of excess stock after the holiday quarter, so the previous 2.5m gap you had was going to correct itself naturally to a more sensible gap between LTD shipments and sell-through. January to March 2020 is poised to have higher sell-through than shipments.

Please, tell me you're joking. We both know nintendo doesn't expect such low numbers.

Oh, hes absolutely serious. He sure is going after trunks' numbers, apparently he knows exactly what the numbers are. Hmm. Who knew?



RolStoppable said:
xMetroid said:

No sorry but there is no way there was 2.5 millions Switch still on shelves after the holiday season even if the lite was not out of stock, their forecast was still low when clearly they were going to surpass the 18 million and then adjusted it up by 1.5 millions cause it looks good for investors. I'm sure they are just aiming low on paper for the same reason but clearly know they will do over 20 millions.

There are only three months left in the fiscal year. It would look terrible to investors if Nintendo's leadership was incapable of providing a close to accurate forecast for such a short timeframe, so there's no sense in announcing 19.5m when 20.0m would be an absolutely sure thing.

Nintendo will have the usual Q&A session with investors and its translation will be on Nintendo's corporate website by next week. One obvious question that an investor will ask is why the forecast for the rest of the fiscal year is so low and Nintendo's predictable response will be that stock levels will have to be corrected, just like one year ago. Nintendo will also say that it's pretty normal for a stock level correction to occur after a holiday quarter, so it will all be business as usual.

I am not sure Nintendo has to justify themself about adjusting stock or not. If UK was severly under supplied, I would expect other country to be just fine without too much stock overall. I had a different theory not mentioned here :

If they had announced 20 or 20.5, what would have been then the FY2021 forecast ?...This would have not allowed them a lot of margin, they would have announced more ?... Or a bit less ? admitting that FY2021 would be the decline year of the Switch ? Starting from 19,5M, they can then announce a safe 20M to show that they still forecast progression for the switch. Capitalism is just about "always more, more and MORE..."

Once Nintendo announces a weaker forecast on year N compared to year N-1, the stock could collapse quickly.



Barkley said:
pikashoe said:

Odyssey actually sold better this quarter than the same quarter last year, so 20 million isn't too far out of reach.

2017 Shipments = 9.07m
2018 Shipments = 4.69m
2019 Shipments = 2.83m

Yeah I expect it should be able to pass 20m with another 3 years, only 3.41m to go.

I wouldnt be surprised if it eventually gets packed in with the systems, and sells millions more as a pack in. 



NateH said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:

All the people? If you can show me even one post who genuinely believed it'd sell poorly I will immediately buy Pokemon Sword, Shield, Pikachu, Eevee, Ultra Sun, Ultra Moon, Pokeball Plus, Sw/Sh expansion pass for both versions, Pokemon Bank and Home, Switch Online, and a ham sandwich.

There were most definitely posts here talking about the sales and controversy. The daily COMG thread had people saying its pre-orders were failing. VGChartz had a Sword/Shield sales prediction poll where a lot of people voted fewer than ten million or whatever it was. The thread were its first week Famitsu numbers came out with like 1.35 million in Japan initially had some here saying it was underperforming.

How many people on this website predicted its first 1.5 months would have sales about the same as X/Y and Sun/Moon's lifetime numbers? Find that prediction post for me.

Talking about the sales and controversy =/= saying it'll sell poorly. In order to be sure you're not twisting words/misremembering/misrepresenting/etc. as you just tried to do, show me. After all there definitely are such post.

So you're not gonna show me a post to back up what you said, but you want me to show you one that has nothing to do with anything? The audacity!



colafitte said:

Fantastic hardware numbers and even more awesome 1st party sales. A few notes from this data:

- Top 10 1st party Switch games sums between them 131'54M from the 310'65M total, a 42%. Wikipedia says Switch has around 2000 games in total..., so around 2000 games have sold the 179'11M left. The disparity between 1st party and 3rd party must be enormous. I wonder how many Switch games have surpassed 1M in sales....

2000 games includes digital only titles which are not included in Nintendo's figures.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.