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Amnesia on 30 January 2020
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RolStoppable said:
xMetroid said:

No sorry but there is no way there was 2.5 millions Switch still on shelves after the holiday season even if the lite was not out of stock, their forecast was still low when clearly they were going to surpass the 18 million and then adjusted it up by 1.5 millions cause it looks good for investors. I'm sure they are just aiming low on paper for the same reason but clearly know they will do over 20 millions.

There are only three months left in the fiscal year. It would look terrible to investors if Nintendo's leadership was incapable of providing a close to accurate forecast for such a short timeframe, so there's no sense in announcing 19.5m when 20.0m would be an absolutely sure thing.

Nintendo will have the usual Q&A session with investors and its translation will be on Nintendo's corporate website by next week. One obvious question that an investor will ask is why the forecast for the rest of the fiscal year is so low and Nintendo's predictable response will be that stock levels will have to be corrected, just like one year ago. Nintendo will also say that it's pretty normal for a stock level correction to occur after a holiday quarter, so it will all be business as usual.

I am not sure Nintendo has to justify themself about adjusting stock or not. If UK was severly under supplied, I would expect other country to be just fine without too much stock overall. I had a different theory not mentioned here :

If they had announced 20 or 20.5, what would have been then the FY2021 forecast ?...This would have not allowed them a lot of margin, they would have announced more ?... Or a bit less ? admitting that FY2021 would be the decline year of the Switch ? Starting from 19,5M, they can then announce a safe 20M to show that they still forecast progression for the switch. Capitalism is just about "always more, more and MORE..."

Once Nintendo announces a weaker forecast on year N compared to year N-1, the stock could collapse quickly.