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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 6 4.48%
 
First half of 2023 3 2.24%
 
Second half of 2023 9 6.72%
 
First half of 2024 7 5.22%
 
Second half of 2024 11 8.21%
 
First half of 2025 5 3.73%
 
Second half of 2025 3 2.24%
 
Later than above 1 0.75%
 
Never 89 66.42%
 
Total:134

There are just too many factors to tell, really.. Will Japan still be gung-ho about handhelds in 4 years? Will Nintendo release more upgraded/revamped Switch models? What's the library look like. And the big one - when will Nintendo release Switch 2?

Now I anticipate this thing selling at a similar number/trajectory to the DS - though probably a bit less ultimately. People compare it to the Wii but really the device is something of a hybrid of the two, and maybe a bit more similar to the DS b/c it has a touch screen and handheld functionality is really its biggest draw. I think the sales will similarly be somewhere in the middle, perhaps in the 120-130 range. It'll almost certainly have longer legs than the Wii, which completely flatlined after an explosive first 3 years or so.

PS4 will probably end up with a similar number of close to 120. So it's tough to say whether it'll even cross the PS4 in the first place. I think there's a good chance, IF Nintendo churns out a couple new models in the next 4 or so years and keeps supporting it with a strong library. Assuming that happens? I can see Switch inch past the PS4 (at least slightly) by the end of Christmas 2024.



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zorg1000 said:
Otter said:
Im not sure the Switch can sell 120m units based on its current tarjectory.

Particularly, is there an audience of 100-120m people who want to mainly play Nintendo's games? Their only consoles to go over 100m relied heavily on appealing outside of their core userbase (wii/DS) or being the only big player in the handheld market (Gameboy).

I'm inclined to think the Switch will end around or below the PS4 with a steep decline in later life.

Sure, one of the main issues with Nintendo has been that their audience is split between their handheld and home console ecosystems. On top of that Nintendo software teams have had to split resources between 2-4 different platforms.

For example, in 1999/2000 Nintendo was working on late GBC & N64 games while also working on early GBA & GC games. In the 2004-2006 period they would have been working on late GBA & GC games while also working on early DS & Wii games then around 2009-2012 they had to work on late DS & Wii games while also working on early 3DS & Wii U games.

That means each generation only gets a few years of Nintendo's full attention and even in those years support would be split between handheld and home consoles. This progressively has gotten worse as development costs and times increase.

Switch is the first time since the mid 80s that Nintendo gets to give 100% of their support to a single platform which means their audience will all be in one place and sales will not plummet or stagnate like many previous devices have.

I'm not saying it will pass PS4 but 100-120 million is not out of the question at all.

I fully expect 100m but the PS4 is already past that.  The question Im asking is how big is their audience full stop. Fundementally how many people are interested in what the Switch is and its line up of games? Looking at all big titles its the typical pokemon/mario/animal crossing/zelda etc. The Switch is doing amazingly well at tapping into Nintendo's audience but that could just mean its front loaded.

Even with consistent support up until 2017 the 3DS reached a natural saturation point around 80m. What will that be for the Switch?



I'll go 2025 just to be sure.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Otter said:
zorg1000 said:

Sure, one of the main issues with Nintendo has been that their audience is split between their handheld and home console ecosystems. On top of that Nintendo software teams have had to split resources between 2-4 different platforms.

For example, in 1999/2000 Nintendo was working on late GBC & N64 games while also working on early GBA & GC games. In the 2004-2006 period they would have been working on late GBA & GC games while also working on early DS & Wii games then around 2009-2012 they had to work on late DS & Wii games while also working on early 3DS & Wii U games.

That means each generation only gets a few years of Nintendo's full attention and even in those years support would be split between handheld and home consoles. This progressively has gotten worse as development costs and times increase.

Switch is the first time since the mid 80s that Nintendo gets to give 100% of their support to a single platform which means their audience will all be in one place and sales will not plummet or stagnate like many previous devices have.

I'm not saying it will pass PS4 but 100-120 million is not out of the question at all.

I fully expect 100m but the PS4 is already past that.  The question Im asking is how big is their audience full stop. Fundementally how many people are interested in what the Switch is and its line up of games? Looking at all big titles its the typical pokemon/mario/animal crossing/zelda etc. The Switch is doing amazingly well at tapping into Nintendo's audience but that could just mean its front loaded.

Even with consistent support up until 2017 the 3DS reached a natural saturation point around 80m. What will that be for the Switch?

Well no, you asked if there are 100-120m people who want to play Nintendo games. I'm saying yes there are.

3DS was only moderately successful outside of Japan, this is not the case for Switch. Switch is doing significantly better than 3DS in America, Europe and especially Other regions.

For example, at their investor meeting last January Nintendo announced that Asia (not including Japan) made up 1.4% of 3DS sales while it makes up 7% of Switch sales.

That means that in almost 7 years 3DS sold 1.1 million in this region while Switch sold 2.25 million in under 2 years.

These regions have grown so much that Nintendo has decided to seperate Europe and Other into 2 separate regions in their quarterly reports (they used to be blocked together).

80 million may have been the saturation point for 3DS but it is not for Switch as it is a mainstream success in every region.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Otter said:

I fully expect 100m but the PS4 is already past that.  The question Im asking is how big is their audience full stop. Fundementally how many people are interested in what the Switch is and its line up of games? Looking at all big titles its the typical pokemon/mario/animal crossing/zelda etc. The Switch is doing amazingly well at tapping into Nintendo's audience but that could just mean its front loaded.

Even with consistent support up until 2017 the 3DS reached a natural saturation point around 80m. What will that be for the Switch?

Well no, you asked if there are 100-120m people who want to play Nintendo games. I'm saying yes there are.

3DS was only moderately successful outside of Japan, this is not the case for Switch. Switch is doing significantly better than 3DS in America, Europe and especially Other regions.

For example, at their investor meeting last January Nintendo announced that Asia (not including Japan) made up 1.4% of 3DS sales while it makes up 7% of Switch sales.

That means that in almost 7 years 3DS sold 1.1 million in this region while Switch sold 2.25 million in under 2 years.

These regions have grown so much that Nintendo has decided to seperate Europe and Other into 2 separate regions in their quarterly reports (they used to be blocked together).

80 million may have been the saturation point for 3DS but it is not for Switch as it is a mainstream success in every region.

This is is very interesting and is more response to the question I was asking. Before you were simply talking about how many years of support a system gets and assuming that a Nintendo system with late life support will automatically perform far better than previous systems (which assumes there isn't a saturation point). 

To clarify my first post which I worded awkwardly. Me asking whether there are 100-120m people interested in a Switch is not me saying I don't expect the Switch to pass 100m, i fee like it definitely will but naturally 5-10% of those sales will through people double dipping. Most people who I know who own a Switch lite already own a Switch and I expect at least another SKU coming from Nintendo. There also people who bought a new base Switch just for the improved battery life...

Regarding the PS4 we will have to see whether these other regions account for enough growth to enable Switch to do over 120m, I'm inclined to say no unless Nintendo manages to expand its reach in the major markets too. Maybe there already have but I think they've just tapped into their audience quicker and more efficiently then past systems as oppose to expanding it. 

Last edited by Otter - on 14 January 2020

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Barkley said:

So 80m over the next 4 years? Out of interest how exactly do you expect those 80m sales to be distributed over 2020,2021,2022 and 2023.

Something like this: 23m, 22m, 19m, 16m.

If 2021 does only see next to no drop that would be very impressive.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 10m, Switch - 21.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barkley said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Something like this: 23m, 22m, 19m, 16m.

If 2021 does only see next to no drop that would be very impressive.

That seems a bit drastic to me, I'm thinking this year will be similar to last year with a steady decline from that point onward

2020-~20m

2021-~17m

2022~13m

Basically 2017-2020 in reverse.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Barkley said:

If 2021 does only see next to no drop that would be very impressive.

That seems a bit drastic to me, I'm thinking this year will be similar to last year with a steady decline from that point onward

2020-~20m

2021-~17m

2022~13m

Yep I pretty much agree. 2021 outperforming 2019 as a couple have suggested seems like a fantasy.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 10m, Switch - 21.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Can't wait for this thread to be bumped in 4 or 5 years!

I don't know when the Switch will overtake the PS4, but I'm fairly certain it will happen at some point. I expect the PS4 sales to drop off a cliff by the time the PS5 releases. I could be wrong though.



Official member of VGC's Nintendo family, approved by the one and only RolStoppable. I feel honored.

I'd say second half of 2024 - PS4 sales are declining faster than Sony expected, but I still think PS4 will get over the 120 million mark. I expect Switch to enter that territory in the second half of 2024 and just about overtake PS4. I also expect the Switch successor to launch in early 2024.