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Global Hardware 30 November 2019 - Black Friday Week

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colafitte said:

This data pretty much seems to confirm what i was expecting from weeks/months:

Switch is going to end around 20'5M in 2019, PS4 around 14'5M in 2019 and XBO with less than 5'0M in 2019. That will put Switch around 50'0M sold lifetime and PS4 around 106'0-106'5M. As for XBO i still anticipating it won't reach 50M worldwide before next Xbox launch.

Yeah those numbers seem about right, NSW is currently up about 29%, PS4 down 18% and XB1 down 31%, if those numbers stay the same than we would have

NSW-21.2m

PS4-14.9m

XB1-4.7m

December is hard to tell if they will stick to current trends, for PS4/XB1 it depends on what kind of deals they offer and for NSW it depends on if general momentum can offset the lack of a big title like Smash Bros but those numbers above should be pretty close.



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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

This data pretty much seems to confirm what i was expecting from weeks/months:

Switch is going to end around 20'5M in 2019, PS4 around 14'5M in 2019 and XBO with less than 5'0M in 2019. That will put Switch around 50'0M sold lifetime and PS4 around 106'0-106'5M. As for XBO i still anticipating it won't reach 50M worldwide before next Xbox launch.

Yeah those numbers seem about right, NSW is currently up about 29%, PS4 down 18% and XB1 down 31%, if those numbers stay the same than we would have

NSW-21.2m

PS4-14.9m

XB1-4.7m

December is hard to tell if they will stick to current trends, for PS4/XB1 it depends on what kind of deals they offer and for NSW it depends on if general momentum can offset the lack of a big title like Smash Bros but those numbers above should be pretty close.

I don't think Switch can maintain the same year over year growth in December because Nintendo closed out 2018 strong. Still expect 2019 to show growth, but not on the level of 29%.

Sony's forecast for PS4 shipments suggests that they won't have many deals, if any at all. Their likely strategy is to tank the rest of the fiscal year to get better draft picks for the PS5.



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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

This data pretty much seems to confirm what i was expecting from weeks/months:

Switch is going to end around 20'5M in 2019, PS4 around 14'5M in 2019 and XBO with less than 5'0M in 2019. That will put Switch around 50'0M sold lifetime and PS4 around 106'0-106'5M. As for XBO i still anticipating it won't reach 50M worldwide before next Xbox launch.

Yeah those numbers seem about right, NSW is currently up about 29%, PS4 down 18% and XB1 down 31%, if those numbers stay the same than we would have

NSW-21.2m

PS4-14.9m

XB1-4.7m

December is hard to tell if they will stick to current trends, for PS4/XB1 it depends on what kind of deals they offer and for NSW it depends on if general momentum can offset the lack of a big title like Smash Bros but those numbers above should be pretty close.

PS4 will likely finish the year down by more than 18% as weekly sales year-over-year have been down by a bigger percent as the year has gone on. Similar with the Xbox One. 



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I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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Damn, crazy Xbox sales thanks to their fantastic deals, and monster Switch numbers! Xbox just did 23-24% of its year-to-date sales in one week haha.

So maybe Switch just over 20 million this year?? Man, if they can bring out some big guns next year (AC, BotW2?, and at least one more big monster seller) along with a first price cut Switch might see 22+ million next year - getting up in top Wii territory.



RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

Yeah those numbers seem about right, NSW is currently up about 29%, PS4 down 18% and XB1 down 31%, if those numbers stay the same than we would have

NSW-21.2m

PS4-14.9m

XB1-4.7m

December is hard to tell if they will stick to current trends, for PS4/XB1 it depends on what kind of deals they offer and for NSW it depends on if general momentum can offset the lack of a big title like Smash Bros but those numbers above should be pretty close.

I don't think Switch can maintain the same year over year growth in December because Nintendo closed out 2018 strong. Still expect 2019 to show growth, but not on the level of 29%.

Sony's forecast for PS4 shipments suggests that they won't have many deals, if any at all. Their likely strategy is to tank the rest of the fiscal year to get better draft picks for the PS5.

I agree, December will be hard for Switch to keep up, I still expect over 20m for the year though.



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Slownenberg said:
Damn, crazy Xbox sales thanks to their fantastic deals, and monster Switch numbers! Xbox just did 23-24% of its year-to-date sales in one week haha.

So maybe Switch just over 20 million this year?? Man, if they can bring out some big guns next year (AC, BotW2?, and at least one more big monster seller) along with a first price cut Switch might see 22+ million next year - getting up in top Wii territory.

I doubt we will get a price cut next year, they havent even had a standard pack in title yet and they will likely do that before cutting the price.

Next year

Switch+Smash Bros or Mario Kart-$299.99

Lite+NSMB or Mario Maker-$199.99

2021

Switch-price drop to $249.99

Lite-price drop to $169.99



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

trunkswd said:
Barkley said:

Last year Switch sold another 5.63m after Black Friday. So even if it was flat YoY, Switch will end the year 50.2m easily beating the Snes!

Black Friday week was up by 19% YoY, so if the rest of the year followed it'd end the year with 51.2m, but without the boost from Smash Bros 2018 got it's difficult to say whether this year will be Up, Flat or even slightly down. I don't really know what to expect!

But outselling the SNES by the end of the year is pretty much guaranteed. Should be anywhere from 49.9m-51.3m

20.3m - 21.7m sales for the year, I think I lost the bet. I don't see 2020 beating 2019 anymore. If it does it'll be very close.

Black Friday this year was a week later, so hard to judge if sales after it this year will be the same as last year. Obviously sales should be up for most weeks compared to last year. Other than Smash Bros. launch.

Lest we forget, the Switch is launching in China about a week from now, which would be  a week later after Smash released on the Y-o-Y aligned chart. 

This could offset the balance of the expected growth or decrease in the upcoming month for the Switch.

Early sources already has 100K pre-orders on one of the major e-commerce distributor.



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Mar1217 said:
trunkswd said:

Black Friday this year was a week later, so hard to judge if sales after it this year will be the same as last year. Obviously sales should be up for most weeks compared to last year. Other than Smash Bros. launch.

Lest we forget, the Switch is launching in China about a week from now, which would be  a week later after Smash released on the Y-o-Y aligned chart. 

This could offset the balance of the expected growth or decrease in the upcoming month for the Switch.

Early sources already has 100K pre-orders on one of the major e-commerce distributor.

Yes the China launch will likely help sales. Though it's only launching with one game and two more in the first few weeks. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

zorg1000 said:
Slownenberg said:
Damn, crazy Xbox sales thanks to their fantastic deals, and monster Switch numbers! Xbox just did 23-24% of its year-to-date sales in one week haha.

So maybe Switch just over 20 million this year?? Man, if they can bring out some big guns next year (AC, BotW2?, and at least one more big monster seller) along with a first price cut Switch might see 22+ million next year - getting up in top Wii territory.

I doubt we will get a price cut next year, they havent even had a standard pack in title yet and they will likely do that before cutting the price.

Next year

Switch+Smash Bros or Mario Kart-$299.99

Lite+NSMB or Mario Maker-$199.99

2021

Switch-price drop to $249.99

Lite-price drop to $169.99

I generally agree with those price cuts. But I'd expect the Lite to drop to $179.99 and them to be cut for next holiday to go against the launch of the PS5 and Xbox Scarlett. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo

I stream on Twitch and have my own Youtube

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features

I also post daily news on the Video Game Industry.

If you want to contact me, send me a PM on here or tweet me @TrunksWD

So now UK can count for 30% of whole Europe sales for Switch...Everybody is fine with this fact ?



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