All of the information I have been pointing to was using the information available at the time Trump made his comments. Again, Trump was wrong and people knew he was wrong as soon as he made his comments, but he repeatedly doubled (and tripled (and quadrupled)) down on his wrong-ness.
Trump misrepresented the data at the time. He should own up to that mistake and people should stop relentlessly defending him when he was so nakedly wrong.
"he repeatedly doubled (and tripled (and quadrupled)) down on his wrong-ness"
>I don't recall you ever pointing these out to me. Refresh my memory please.
Is a 10 second Google search too much work? Or is being spoon fed the information part of the skepticism?
Anyway, here is a timeline for you. With double, triple and quadruple downs.
Sunday, Sept. 1
On Sunday morning, the President tweeted that Alabama and other states will be “hit (much) harder than anticipated.”
The Birmingham NWS appeared to respond to the President 20 minutes later, tweeting that the hurricane will be “too far east” to impact Alabama.
That morning, Trump also repeated his claim that Alabama would be affected by the storm, telling reporters, “Alabama is going to get a piece of it, it looks like. But it can change its course again and it could go back more toward Florida.”
At a FEMA briefing an hour later, Trump said that the storm “may get a little piece of a great place: It’s called Alabama. And Alabama could even be in for at least some very strong winds and something more than that, it could be. This just came up, unfortunately. It’s the size of — the storm that we’re talking about. So, for Alabama, just please be careful also.”
According to the Associated Press, the National Hurricane Center was reporting at this time that parts of Alabama only had a 5% to 10% chance of getting tropical storm level winds.
Monday, Sept. 2
On Monday, Katie Rogers of the New York Times wrote that these comments were part of Trump’s “reality-show approach to the presidency.”
“With his reality-show approach to the presidency, Mr. Trump has a habit of weighing in on the day’s most-covered news stories with his own running commentary. As Dorian approached, Mr. Trump switched into town-crier mode, updating the public on what he had learned — or, what he thought he’d learned — from government officials as Dorian threatened the coast of the state of Florida, where he has owned property for decades,” Rogers wrote.
Trump criticized journalists on Twitter for their reporting on his statement about Alabama.
“Such a phony hurricane report by lightweight reporter @jonkarl of @ABCWorldNews. I suggested yesterday at FEMA that, along with Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, even Alabama could possibly come into play, which WAS true,” Trump wrote. “They made a big deal about this when in fact, under certain original scenarios, it was in fact correct that Alabama could have received some ‘hurt.’ Always good to be prepared! But the Fake News is only interested in demeaning and belittling. Didn’t play my whole sentence or statement. Bad people!”
Wednesday, Sept. 4
Three days after his initial tweet, in a meeting in the Oval Office, Trump displayed a NOAA forecast map to demonstrate that Alabama was originally believed to have been threatened by Hurricane Dorian. The map appeared to have been crudely altered by hand, its forecast extended to show that the storm would impact Alabama.
Later, Trump tweeted a South Florida Water Management District map dated from Aug. 28 that showed that some projections showed that the hurricane could reach Alabama. The graphic notes that advisories from the National Hurricane Center should “supersede” the map.
This map South Florida Water Management District map was created 4 days before Trump first mentioned Alabama and well prior to updated maps that no longer showed Alabama in any danger at all.
The South Florida Water Management District later told CNN in a statement that it produces “hundreds” of such maps each day, and that they’re refreshed every 15 minutes with new data.
Trump also stated, "This is the original path that we thought -- and everybody thought that this was about a 95% probability," he said. "And it turned out to be not that path. It turned out to be a path going up the coast," Trump said. 95%...remember that.
Thursday, Sept. 5
Philip Bump of the Washington Post wrote on Thursday that Trump’s response to the criticism was “Orwellian.”
“For Trump, this is a fight worth having because it does two things. It pits the media as oppositional by looping criticism of his initial inaccuracy and his flawed defenses as attacks on him and, by extension, on his supporters. It is also an example of Trump’s unwavering unwillingness to admit mistakes, a central component of his personal survival strategy.”
The White House released a statement from Rear Adm. Peter Brown, Trump’s homeland security and counterterrorism adviser, defending the President’s initial statement.
“The President’s comments were based on that morning’s Hurricane Dorian briefing, which included the possibility of tropical storm force winds in southeastern Alabama,” the statement read according to the Washington Post.
If this is true, which the skeptic in me doubts (you should doubt it too), then the President of the United States of America was briefed on data 4 days old for a frikkin hurricane.
That day, Trump criticized the news media for reporting on his statements about the storm.
SIXTH LAYER DOWN
Later that day, Trump tweeted NOAA maps from 4 days prior to his first Alabama reference. One of the maps identified that parts of Alabama had a 5 to 20% chance of receiving 39 mph winds; the other map said parts of Alabama had a 5 to 30% chance of 39 mph winds.
You know, 5-20% or 5-30% of tropical storm winds are certainly not 95%. So where the hell did he get the 95% figure from?
And remember, those were from 4 days prior to his first Alabama tweet. By the time he tweeted about Alabama, those same maps looked like this:
SEVENTH LAYER DOWN
He also retweeted an Aug. 30 tweet from The Alabama National Guard, which said that the hurricane was “projected to reach southern Alabama by the early part of the week.”
The Guard’s account had then corrected that tweet the day after saying the forecast showed “more consistently” that the storm would track away from Alabama.
LAYER 8 DOWN
Friday, Sept. 6
On Friday, the President tweeted that the news media was “fixated” on what Trump had said about the storm.
“The Fake News Media was fixated on the fact that I properly said, at the beginnings of Hurricane Dorian, that in addition to Florida & other states, Alabama may also be grazed or hit. They went Crazy, hoping against hope that I made a mistake (which I didn’t). Check out maps…..”
He also tweeted an undated video clip that showed that CNN had acknowledged that the storm would hit Alabama.
CNN reported on Friday night that the clip had aired on Aug. 28 — four days before the President’s initial tweet about Hurrican Dorian hitting Alabama.
Reporters from various outlets commented on the President’s determination to prove himself right. Peter Baker and Sarah Mervosh of the New York Times wrote on Sept. 6 that the President seemed keen to “[wage] war over his forecasting skills.”
“Whatever merits there may have been to his original statement, he finds it impossible to back down or brush it off as imprecise wording. Where other presidents would have dropped the matter rather than give it air, Mr. Trump extended the story for nearly a week.”
FRONT 9 ON THE GREENS DOWN
Saturday, Sept. 7
In a pair of tweets on Saturday, President Trump criticized the Times‘ story for saying that they had misstated the hurricane’s trajectory. He noted that he had said “very early on” that the storm “may even hit” Alabama.
Monday, Sept. 9
On Monday, NWS Director Louis Uccellini publicly backed the Birmingham office’s Sept. 1 statement during a National Weather Association presentation, saying the office “did what any office would do to protect the public.”
According to Uccellini, the Birmingham office contradicted Trump’s tweet that Alabama would be hit much harder than anticipated to “stop public panic,” and “ensure public safety,”
“The integrity of the forecast process was maintained by the Birmingham office and across the entire National Weather Service,” added.
But I guess he never double, triple, quadruple, etc...downed, right?
And if this is not enough for you, don't you dare ever call yourself a skeptic just looking for proof and truth again. You will no longer be able to hide behind the disguise of skepticism as a veil for your dogmatic Trump sycophancy.