colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
As I said, this reminds me very much of talk about the PS3 before it launched. At least at that point that Sony had a basically flawless track record. Now they have the PS3 and Vita on their record. They are definitely not flawless anymore. Yet people still act like they are.
It really is nonsense to declare PS5 success, when they haven't even announced it yet. Especially when you take into account that there is a new console on the market that is already very successful.
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In the end, it's a matter of expectations. Would you bet money that PS5 is going to be a failure like no PS home console has been (PS3 was costly to Sony but it sold very well, similar to PS1 pace) or would you bet that PS4 is going to be at least as good as PS3?
By the time PS5 launch, Switch will be already almost 4 years old. PS5 won't compete against Switch at all...
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I would bet money based on what I know. About PS5 itself, I know nothing. About it's competitor, the Switch, I know that it is already successful. Therefore the safe money is on the Switch.
Hiku said:
The_Liquid_Laser said: People are already predicting success for the PS5 without knowing a damn thing about it. Reminds me of the talk just before the PS3 launch. On the other hand we already know that the Switch is a successful console that is selling comparably to the PS4. Isn't it more logical prediction that the Switch will have the top spot for the next 4+ years? |
And about PS3, it's worth noting that it was their biggest screw up, and it was still the top selling console in the world for several years. Most people presume that Sony learned from the PS3 launch the hard way not to repeat that mistake again. And presuming they don't, it's a fairly safe bet to expect that PS5 will do fairly well. Hell, even if they repeat that mistake, it may still do well since their worst selling console sold 87m.
The reason for that is consistency. Even down to the name of the console, it's very consistent in that we know what to expect. A standard home console, the same controller with some minor additions (only the PS3, again, tried something different initially with the boomerang), and all third parties on board since day -1. It's a formula that has worked very well for them so far, and at this time there's no indication of it being a bad approach.
With Nintendo it's very hit or miss, because they often go a different route than the norm, whether its the controller/the way you play games, the storage media, or the console itself. And third parties on their home console is always a questionmark after SNES.
Will the newest Nintendo home console get the latest Final Fantasy or Resident Evil, etc? That's never been a question for the newest Playstation, but something everyone expects since before it even launches. And for good reason.
Now when it comes to Switch, there's still a lot of question marks about which games it will get or not. This week for example has two huge releases for 'every other system' in Resident Evil 2 and Kingdom Hearts 3, both sitting high on Metacritic right now. When PS5 and XB2 are around the corner, that means developers are already working on, or planning, new games that are even more demanding than the ones that are not on Switch today. So all things considered I don't think it's a clearcut safer bet to assume that Switch will handle the next 4+ years better than PS5. 3DS's two best years in the US were it's first two, so you never know how a system will sell. Especially one with many uncertainties. Though personally I think that in 2019 Switch will sell at least around the same as this year.
I don't know how Switch will do compared to PS5 though, but I feel it's safe to assume PS5 will do just fine, based on history, because it follows the same blueprint.
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I have a very different view of the PS3. I see it as a total failure. Although, I am from the US and it was a total failure in the US, shut out by both the Wii and XBox360. Perhaps a person would see it differently in a country where the XBox360 never took off. Also, from Sony's perspective it was a total failure because it lost them a ton of money. But some gamers might see it differently because it had decent marketshare for a few years.
We also have a different perspective on console brands, because you seem to think that console brands matter a great deal. I do not think console brands matter at all. How much did the Wii brand help the Wii U? Not at all. The PS2 brand didn't help the PS3 either. The Playstation brand doesn't mean anything, because none of the console brands mean anything. The Playstation brand will not help the PS5 sell at all.