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PS4 sales surpass 91.6 million, Spiderman over 9 million

Forums - Sony Discussion - PS4 sales surpass 91.6 million, Spiderman over 9 million

zorg1000 said:
Zombie9ers said:
Rumor has it that The Last of Us: Part 2 is releasing in 2019. I think it may release in the fall- around September- about 6 months after Days Gone’s release to give that game some breathing room. If Sony bundles TLOU2 for Black Friday and the holidays at that $199 price point - it’s going to move a ton of consoles!

It will certainly be a solid mover during the holidays but sales will diminish being the 3rd year of $199 bundles.

2016-$249+Uncharted 4

2017-$199

2018-$199+Spider-Man

 

2016 saw PS4 sell 6.2 million in the holiday season

2017 saw PS4 sell 5.9 million in the holiday season

2018 saw PS4 sell 5.6 million in the holiday season

 

Holiday sales have decreased from 2016-2018 despite having better deals, which isnt a bad thing, its completely expected out of a console to decline in the 5th & 6th holiday seasons and I'm expecting that trend to continue regardless of how good the bundles/price cuts are this year.

Honestly I dont think it would make any kinda difference.

If TLOU2 were released off holiday season I see it resulting in no more than a 400k global spike in sales if at all.... and thats because of saturation. Right now the real sales driver will be price and not the game. If Sony drops the price to say $199 over november and december this year then they culd g n to have the best holiday sales in the PS4s history but numbers will drop right back down to whatever they will be for the next upcoming months.



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colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Ya a $199/299 cut for Slim/Pro would be needed and I just cant see Sony giving them that big of a permanent price cut.

Yeah, when i said that the other day maybe i was too much optimistic, mostly knowing how Sony is acting recently is not going to happen. 16M is a better prediction.

Haha...... you guys think 16M? 

I think the PS4 is going to do 15M this year. And sony is going to announce shipment total fr the FY of 16M.

And the reason it will d only 15M is because sony will not cut the price of the PS4 till november if at all. Or at best just do the same promotional $199 bundle again. 

I am calling it, as long as this year sales stay above 2014 sales sony will not drop the price.



What i have clear in my mind is that, if PS4 sells 16M (is what i expect for 2019) and Switch ends selling 17-18M ( i expect 17'5M to be precise, but this is just an example) in 2019, that means PS4 is going to be ahead during most of the year again, and only when holiday season comes, Switch will catch up like what happened in USA last year with a tremendous December.

That's why i think 2019 is going to be close for PS4 and Switch. Switch will only be ahead since the beginning if it ends selling more than 3-4M compared to PS4. And i know, there's some people here that expect 20M+ in 2019, but if Switch ends selling just 20-25% more in 2018 compared to 2017 (like it seems is happening in markets like UK, France and USA), that means Switch is going to be around 16M at best. So, although another 20-25% growth this year could be possible worldwide, i really don't expect that happening.

So PS4 selling 16M vs Swtich selling 17-18M would mean another fantastic year of sales for both. Then, by 2020 PS5 will be announced and PS4 sales will drop a lot more until PS5 launches by November 2020, but PS4 should be near 120M total sales by then.

On the software side, Spiderman, is going to keep selling, but reaching 15M it's going to take time, so people should not expect that if Spiderman is around 10-11M right now should reach 20M easily lifetime. If it sells 15M only on PS4 it will be a monumental success.



DonFerrari said:
Evilms said:

"The big thing is the Playstation consoles usually have longer legs than Nintendo systems.
Even in 2019, Im expecting 16m+ sold for the year."

 

This is what has made the strength of playstation consoles since ps1, they sell well over time.

For those who doubt the wii numbers it comes from this graph :

 

http://fortune.com/2017/04/21/nintendo-classic-console-sales/

Yep, Nintendo system usually peaking on second or third year with steady drop after. Not sure why some people is expecting Switch to peak in 2020 at over 50% increase over 2018 and drop softly after.

I don't know whether Switch's peak is now or in the future, but  if you read my reply to Kerotan you will see my reasons for thinking that the Switch may break away from past Nintendo console sales curves. 



mjk45 said:
DonFerrari said:

Yep, Nintendo system usually peaking on second or third year with steady drop after. Not sure why some people is expecting Switch to peak in 2020 at over 50% increase over 2018 and drop softly after.

I don't know whether Switch's peak is now or in the future, but  if you read my reply to Kerotan you will see my reasons for thinking that the Switch may break away from past Nintendo console sales curves. 

Sure it can break it, but making predictions of not only it breaking it but increasing 50% 2018 to 2019 and then just 10% drop for the next 2 years are just to optmistic



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363


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Intrinsic said:
colafitte said:

Yeah, when i said that the other day maybe i was too much optimistic, mostly knowing how Sony is acting recently is not going to happen. 16M is a better prediction.

Haha...... you guys think 16M? 

I think the PS4 is going to do 15M this year. And sony is going to announce shipment total fr the FY of 16M.

And the reason it will d only 15M is because sony will not cut the price of the PS4 till november if at all. Or at best just do the same promotional $199 bundle again. 

I am calling it, as long as this year sales stay above 2014 sales sony will not drop the price.

I dunno. I think a price cut comes day and date with Days Gone imho. 



100M By August pretty much locked!



Intrinsic said:
colafitte said:

Yeah, when i said that the other day maybe i was too much optimistic, mostly knowing how Sony is acting recently is not going to happen. 16M is a better prediction.

Haha...... you guys think 16M? 

I think the PS4 is going to do 15M this year. And sony is going to announce shipment total fr the FY of 16M.

And the reason it will d only 15M is because sony will not cut the price of the PS4 till november if at all. Or at best just do the same promotional $199 bundle again. 

I am calling it, as long as this year sales stay above 2014 sales sony will not drop the price.

Ups, i did not see your post.

16M is a scenario where a $50 discount comes around half of the year, and it's probably the best scenario. I'm more on the side of 15-16M than 16-17M if you know what i mean. 

PS4 without a PS5 announcement yet in 2019 won't fall to less than 15M in my opinion, even without price cuts.

Edit: And it could very well just ship 14M in FY 2019 and still sell around 15-16M as proved in previous years.



DonFerrari said:
mjk45 said:

I don't know whether Switch's peak is now or in the future, but  if you read my reply to Kerotan you will see my reasons for thinking that the Switch may break away from past Nintendo console sales curves. 

Sure it can break it, but making predictions of not only it breaking it but increasing 50% 2018 to 2019 and then just 10% drop for the next 2 years are just to optmistic

The 50% prediction sounds like someone's hopes being used to make a forecast , can you link who said that and did they underpin that with reasoning or just wishful thinking.



mjk45 said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure it can break it, but making predictions of not only it breaking it but increasing 50% 2018 to 2019 and then just 10% drop for the next 2 years are just to optmistic

The 50% prediction sounds like someone's hopes being used to make a forecast , can you link who said that and did they underpin that with reasoning or just wishful thinking.

Drinkandswin (not alone on being overoptimistic, but to this extent I think only him).

Basically he thinks about Switch getting a HH pricetag in the future, and X1 and PS4 sales dropping a lot.

Plus of course Nintendo predicting this FY to be 20M (instead of probable 18M) made 25M for FY19, 22M for FY20  and 20M for FY21 (same as FY18) reasonable on his analysis.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363