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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Labo is going to flop

 

Sales prediction of Labo (in millions)?

<1 17 13.49%
 
1 12 9.52%
 
2 22 17.46%
 
3 16 12.70%
 
4 5 3.97%
 
5 16 12.70%
 
6 2 1.59%
 
7 1 0.79%
 
8 1 0.79%
 
>8 34 26.98%
 
Total:126
Mnementh said:
Megiddo said:
I'll go with 900,000 for the variety kit and 500,000 for the robot kit by the end of 2018.

These seem like sensible predictions, I would also think the variety kit makes around double as much as the robot kit.

If that seems sensible to you, you're in for a very rude awakening.



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zorg1000 said:
AlfredoTurkey said:

No, FORUM reception was mixed. You inferred what I said incorrectly if you thought I was talking about focus groups.

Yes and im saying forum reception is irrelevant and the reception of the target demographic is what is important.

 

All I'm saying is this. A focus group is a focus group. You can show it to select people at a mall and have them enjoy something and then release it to market and still have it fall on its face. They are going to have to figure out a way to make millions of people who haven't even heard of it yet aware that it exists and then to make them want to buy it with nothing but advertisements. That is so much harder than a focus group of select people.

One is super easy. One is super hard. I haven't seen anything yet to indicate that this is going to be anything more than a niche, nerd toy. If they manage to sell it to families and kids in mass, fine. I really don't care. I'm not the target demographic anyway. But I personally haven't convinced that it's going to happen that way.

Last edited by AlfredoTurkey - on 22 March 2018

Hynad said:
quickrick said:

seems like every game nintedo releases is a big hit, i really doubt nintedo would be happy with 2-3 million, they have been pushing it like crazy saying its there next big thing to attract new people to buy switch.

They've been pushing it like crazy?

How? When? Where?


I have seen zero advertising about it anywhere, outside of their own media channels.

they had a entire direct dedicated to labo, of course advertising won't start this early, but i expect a huge push near release.



curl-6 said:
setsunatenshi said:

That just blows my mind, really.

VR as the most immersive way to enter a videogame world = gimmick

Cardboard folding = interesting

That's a valid opinion for anyone to have outside a videogame forum. Inside one is bizarre to say the least.

Not criticizing your opinion though, just finding it really weird.

I was one of those kids who played with LEGO and made paper planes and stuff, the act of physically building things was a big part of the fun. On the other hand, I find strapping a headset to my face more intrusive than immersive. Different strokes for different folks I guess.

I don't get why building things excites you now when there are tons of options have been available for ages.



Still looking for that game to make me want to buy a Switch and honey, this ain't it



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RolStoppable said:
zorg1000 said:

Yeah i really think Labo will be to Switch as Nintendogs/Brain Age, Wii Sports/Fit & Kinect were to DS, Wii & 360.

I don't see it happening. Labo's target demographic is too narrow to pull off such huge numbers, even if you combined all current and future Labo kits.

The novelty of Labo ensures that individual kits will be million sellers, but Labo won't be as big as the things you mentioned.

Kids/parents/families market and for "those who are kids in they heart" (:D) is not too narrow demographic even if dont includes hard core gamers, potential for Labo is huge.

 

Pagan said: 

Well i hope it will flop so Nintendo can go back to the 2017 switch mind and just focus on real games like Zelda and Odyssey.

Yes, beacuse its obvous Nintendo will stop working on all other kind of projects beacuse of Labo, right!? :)

You still have hard time to realise that Nintendo is not abandoning current demographic of Switch owners and instead they are expanding Switch appealing on market with Labo, also you need to realise that resources needed for something like Labo are probably smaller than resources for Kirby game. In other words, dont worry you will have more real games like Zelda and Odyssey in any case. Higher apealing of some product on market means higher popularity and higher sales, higher sales and bigger install base means stronger support of devs with games.



quickrick said:
curl-6 said:

I was one of those kids who played with LEGO and made paper planes and stuff, the act of physically building things was a big part of the fun. On the other hand, I find strapping a headset to my face more intrusive than immersive. Different strokes for different folks I guess.

I don't get why building things excites you now when there are tons of options have been available for ages.

Physically building things is simply fun for some people. 



curl-6 said:
quickrick said:

I don't get why building things excites you now when there are tons of options have been available for ages.

Physically building things is simply fun for some people. 

I'm just saying why be excited about now? there are way better toys for building stuff then labo.



quickrick said:
curl-6 said:

Physically building things is simply fun for some people. 

I'm just saying why be excited about now? there are way better toys for building stuff then labo.

I find it exciting because to me it's interesting and cool the way Labo combines DIY construction with video games, plus the wide range of possibilities for inventive custom creations. Finding out the clever ways in which it all works through the IR camera and HD rumble is also pretty nifty.



I don't see 1 or 2m being a flop at all. You're looking at it from a purely software perspective, I imagine Labo is the type of product that would people to the Switch who would have never considered the system before. It should continually offer new iterations so It won't just amount to 1 game either.