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My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

Forums - Sales Discussion - My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 46 44.66%
 
PS4 28 27.18%
 
both end up similar (less... 9 8.74%
 
Switch 7 6.80%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 5.83%
 
XBox One 7 6.80%
 
Total:103
NintendoPie said:
DonFerrari said:

Yes do your praises to us...

So someone thinking it won't do over 24M is short-sighted, but somehow someone that is predicting over 24M is a genius?

What evidences are there that Switch will do over 24M?

Don, once again, I never said that someone who predicts 24+ million is a genius. Stop making falsities out of what I'm saying. You are supporting someone's arguments who claims themselves as overdramatic in another thread, which only further supports my statements. 

As for evidence, there is the report that Nintendo is looking to increase shipment passed 24 million next year (though unconfirmed), the fact that Nintendo consoles regularly have much higher spikes rather than long-selling lifetimes, the fact that the Switch continues to sell out and continues to have high demand in the US and Japan, and the fact that the Switch is set to hit a fairly high watermark in its first year, leading one to only reasonably believe that it'll do even better in the future.

Still your "evidence" to sell more than 24M isn't any strong than it not selling over 24M to call people that don't think it will do it are short sighted. If you are offending someone that is on one point of view aren't you giving props to the opposite side? Or is it even worse, that seeing it as 24M is natural and anyone thinking otherwise is just to dumb to notice?

TheBlackNaruto said:
DonFerrari said:

Not all 3DS owners are Nintendo fans... but sure they having 40M fans (if that was the case) doesn't mean it will sell 40M. N64, GC and WiiU sold less than 40M, all Handhelds sold more than it. And numbers so far indicate a better chance of Switch doing 70M than 40M.

True you do not have to be a fan to get the system nor does being a fan mean you will get one either his statement was just odd to me.....but then I would assume a vast majority of those 70million would be some form of Nintendo fan one way or another even if it was just for one game like Pokemon or something sure there are those who just bought it only because someone else said it was worth it but a majority I would ASSUME not for sure of course are some sort of fan of Nintendo.....but the dude who posted just seems upset to me....like a lot of his posts since joining the site not to long ago have seemed to be on a Nintendo hunt to down and talk bad about them for some odd reason.

Understand your point... but yes there are different level of fandom. I appreciate what Nintendo do and have a good time when I play some of their games, just can't make room on my gaming time for Nintendo against Sony.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Nah. both will likely be in the 100-120m range. I don't think one will have a big advantage in another one.

keep dreaming.

If all you can do is just console war or even worse, member war comments, i'm don't even want to have nothing to do with you.



DonFerrari said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

So how has the 3DS reached 70million then?

Not all 3DS owners are Nintendo fans... but sure they having 40M fans (if that was the case) doesn't mean it will sell 40M. N64, GC and WiiU sold less than 40M, all Handhelds sold more than it. And numbers so far indicate a better chance of Switch doing 70M than 40M.

Thats a point, not all Switch curent all future owners are not Nintendo owners also.



Pillertriller said:
Mnementh said:

Ah, you count financial years, I looked at calendar years and ignored the launch if it happened in November or December. 2014 has WiiU more than 2013. But whatever, either way peaking in the first year is the exception, not the rule.

There are no rules for console sales. You doing your job good and you have good sales like playstation. Nintendo does its job good too, but only for nintendo fans. Now its the question how many Nintendo Fans are out there? I dont think there are more than 40 millons. 

Playstation does a good job, but only for Sony fans?

Statements like these are ridiculous. Wii, DS and 3DS all sold more than 40 millions. If you choose that these all are Nintendo fans, than there are more than 40M. If you choose they are not, Nintendo can do a good job outside the Nintendo fanbase. Looking alone at this forum with a lot of people saying Switch is the first Nintendo system they got since <Gamecube/N64/SNES>, I tend to think this sells outside the core Nintendo fanbase. But whatever, no console sales ever fell completely from a cliff. They petered out. With the current momentum Switch will probably sail past 40M.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Mnementh said:
Lauster said:

According to this site, WiiU too

Y1 : 3,643,090 (Nov 2012 - Oct 2013)
Y2 : 3,524,181 (Nov 2013 - Oct 2014)
Y3 : 3,403,503 (Nov 2014 - Oct 2015)
Y4 : 2,655,749 (Nov 2015 - Oct 2016)
Y5 : 299,287 (Nov 2016 - Sept 2017)

Ah, you count financial years, I looked at calendar years and ignored the launch if it happened in November or December. 2014 has WiiU more than 2013. But whatever, either way peaking in the first year is the exception, not the rule.

Ok, I should have specified the demarcation of my years (done in bold). It's the same thing when we compare consoles sales with launch aligned.

Yes it's an exception, but this exception already applied on 2 devices of 8th gen. I will wait until March 2019 to see if the Switch is also a victim of this exception (but with a larger sales volume). This may seem implausible, but nevertheless not impossible.



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DonFerrari said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

So how has the 3DS reached 70million then?

Not all 3DS owners are Nintendo fans... but sure they having 40M fans (if that was the case) doesn't mean it will sell 40M. N64, GC and WiiU sold less than 40M, all Handhelds sold more than it. And numbers so far indicate a better chance of Switch doing 70M than 40M.

Agreed. But Pillertriller suggested Nintendo only sells to Nintendo fans.

Actually I think, if you purchase and like a console of Nintendo, you're probably a Nintendo fan. Even if it is your first one, so you're a freshly converted Nintendo fan. Therefore the number of fans is volatile.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Lauster said:
Mnementh said:

Ah, you count financial years, I looked at calendar years and ignored the launch if it happened in November or December. 2014 has WiiU more than 2013. But whatever, either way peaking in the first year is the exception, not the rule.

Ok, I should have specified the demarcation of my years (done in bold). It's the same thing when we compare consoles sales with launch aligned.

Yes it's an exception, but this exception already applied on 2 devices of 8th gen. I will wait until March 2019 to see if the Switch is also a victim of this exception (but with a larger sales volume). This may seem implausible, but nevertheless not impossible.

Agreed, implausible, but not completely impossible.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

Not all 3DS owners are Nintendo fans... but sure they having 40M fans (if that was the case) doesn't mean it will sell 40M. N64, GC and WiiU sold less than 40M, all Handhelds sold more than it. And numbers so far indicate a better chance of Switch doing 70M than 40M.

Thats a point, not all Switch curent all future owners are not Nintendo owners also.

Not sure about current. Since it was sold out and one needed to "fight" a little for the console and usually early adopters are more of the core. But anyway there is zero evidence that Switch will sell only to core Nintendo.

I'll probably buy one in the next couple years to play with my child that is entering the phase of gaming and already love to see Super Mario on Youtube.

Mnementh said:
DonFerrari said:

Not all 3DS owners are Nintendo fans... but sure they having 40M fans (if that was the case) doesn't mean it will sell 40M. N64, GC and WiiU sold less than 40M, all Handhelds sold more than it. And numbers so far indicate a better chance of Switch doing 70M than 40M.

Agreed. But Pillertriller suggested Nintendo only sells to Nintendo fans.

Actually I think, if you purchase and like a console of Nintendo, you're probably a Nintendo fan. Even if it is your first one, so you're a freshly converted Nintendo fan. Therefore the number of fans is volatile.

That can be true, Nintendo games tend to be very enjoyable so someone playing for the first time may become a fan =]



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

TheBlackNaruto said:
Pillertriller said:

There are no rules for console sales. You doing your job good and you have good sales like playstation. Nintendo does its job good too, but only for nintendo fans. Now its the question how many Nintendo Fans are out there? I dont think there are more than 40 millons. 

So how has the 3DS reached 70million then?

Do you really think everbody of the owners of those 70 million 3ds users are hardcore fans? Same goes for PS4 maybe like 20% are real Hardcore fans of Playstation. But a PS4 is just much more appealing console in every way for someone who isnt a kid who wants a console to play games, besides the portability that switch offers.

A question to you : Why did the Wii U only sold 13 millions?