Quantcast
My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

Forums - Sales Discussion - My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

Who will win?

PS4 will dominate (more than 30M difference) 46 44.66%
 
PS4 28 27.18%
 
both end up similar (less... 9 8.74%
 
Switch 7 6.80%
 
Switch will dominate (mor... 6 5.83%
 
XBox One 7 6.80%
 
Total:103
Lauster said:
Mnementh said:

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.

According to this site, WiiU too

Y1 : 3,643,090
Y2 : 3,524,181
Y3 : 3,403,503
Y4 : 2,655,749
Y5 : 299,287 (to September 2017)

Ohoh Nintendo Fanatics will downplay this somehow



Around the Network
DonFerrari said:

NintendoPie said:

So the Switch couldn't possibly sell 24+ million in a year just because you are against it, or do you have a real reason? If not, you need to set down your blinders because they are obscuring your reality. 

And Switch will hit over 24+M because you want?

betacon said:

Just because you hope/love the switch to sell 24+ million doesn't mean it's realistic either, it's sold extremely well but nothing suggest it will sell that well.

The obvious is lost on both of you. I never stated in my post that I absolutely do think the Switch will sell 24+ million in any given year, just that it's ridiculous and short-sighted of the poster I quoted to only believe it won't because it's unfathomable to him. Besides, there's more evidence to the idea that it can rather than that it can't, but that wasn't even my point.



Carl is a Piplup hater and deserves to be punished eternally.

Lauster said:
Mnementh said:

Only Vita peaked in the first year. Logic and history says that you should assume third year without further data.

According to this site, WiiU too

Y1 : 3,643,090
Y2 : 3,524,181
Y3 : 3,403,503
Y4 : 2,655,749
Y5 : 299,287 (to September 2017)

Ah, you count financial years, I looked at calendar years and ignored the launch if it happened in November or December. 2014 has WiiU more than 2013. But whatever, either way peaking in the first year is the exception, not the rule.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Mnementh said:
Lauster said:

According to this site, WiiU too

Y1 : 3,643,090
Y2 : 3,524,181
Y3 : 3,403,503
Y4 : 2,655,749
Y5 : 299,287 (to September 2017)

Ah, you count financial years, I looked at calendar years and ignored the launch if it happened in November or December. 2014 has WiiU more than 2013. But whatever, either way peaking in the first year is the exception, not the rule.

There are no rules for console sales. You doing your job good and you have good sales like playstation. Nintendo does its job good too, but only for nintendo fans. Now its the question how many Nintendo Fans are out there? I dont think there are more than 40 millons. 



NintendoPie said:
DonFerrari said:

And Switch will hit over 24+M because you want?

betacon said:

Just because you hope/love the switch to sell 24+ million doesn't mean it's realistic either, it's sold extremely well but nothing suggest it will sell that well.

The obvious is lost on both of you. I never stated in my post that I absolutely do think the Switch will sell 24+ million in any given year, just that it's ridiculous and short-sighted of the poster I quoted to only believe it won't because it's unfathomable to him. Besides, there's more evidence to the idea that it can rather than that it can't, but that wasn't even my point.

Yes do your praises to us...

So someone thinking it won't do over 24M is short-sighted, but somehow someone that is predicting over 24M is a genius?

What evidences are there that Switch will do over 24M?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Around the Network
Pillertriller said:
Mnementh said:

Ah, you count financial years, I looked at calendar years and ignored the launch if it happened in November or December. 2014 has WiiU more than 2013. But whatever, either way peaking in the first year is the exception, not the rule.

There are no rules for console sales. You doing your job good and you have good sales like playstation. Nintendo does its job good too, but only for nintendo fans. Now its the question how many Nintendo Fans are out there? I dont think there are more than 40 millons. 

So how has the 3DS reached 70million then?



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

TheBlackNaruto said:
Pillertriller said:

There are no rules for console sales. You doing your job good and you have good sales like playstation. Nintendo does its job good too, but only for nintendo fans. Now its the question how many Nintendo Fans are out there? I dont think there are more than 40 millons. 

So how has the 3DS reached 70million then?

Witchcraft



Signature goes here!

TheBlackNaruto said:
Pillertriller said:

There are no rules for console sales. You doing your job good and you have good sales like playstation. Nintendo does its job good too, but only for nintendo fans. Now its the question how many Nintendo Fans are out there? I dont think there are more than 40 millons. 

So how has the 3DS reached 70million then?

Not all 3DS owners are Nintendo fans... but sure they having 40M fans (if that was the case) doesn't mean it will sell 40M. N64, GC and WiiU sold less than 40M, all Handhelds sold more than it. And numbers so far indicate a better chance of Switch doing 70M than 40M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:

Yes do your praises to us...

So someone thinking it won't do over 24M is short-sighted, but somehow someone that is predicting over 24M is a genius?

What evidences are there that Switch will do over 24M?

Don, once again, I never said that someone who predicts 24+ million is a genius. Stop making falsities out of what I'm saying. You are supporting someone's arguments who claims themselves as overdramatic in another thread, which only further supports my statements. 

As for evidence, there is the report that Nintendo is looking to increase shipment passed 24 million next year (though unconfirmed), the fact that Nintendo consoles regularly have much higher spikes rather than long-selling lifetimes, the fact that the Switch continues to sell out and continues to have high demand in the US and Japan, and the fact that the Switch is set to hit a fairly high watermark in its first year, leading one to only reasonably believe that it'll do even better in the future.



Carl is a Piplup hater and deserves to be punished eternally.

DonFerrari said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

So how has the 3DS reached 70million then?

Not all 3DS owners are Nintendo fans... but sure they having 40M fans (if that was the case) doesn't mean it will sell 40M. N64, GC and WiiU sold less than 40M, all Handhelds sold more than it. And numbers so far indicate a better chance of Switch doing 70M than 40M.

True you do not have to be a fan to get the system nor does being a fan mean you will get one either his statement was just odd to me.....but then I would assume a vast majority of those 70million would be some form of Nintendo fan one way or another even if it was just for one game like Pokemon or something sure there are those who just bought it only because someone else said it was worth it but a majority I would ASSUME not for sure of course are some sort of fan of Nintendo.....but the dude who posted just seems upset to me....like a lot of his posts since joining the site not to long ago have seemed to be on a Nintendo hunt to down and talk bad about them for some odd reason.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23