My prediction is 120-130 million. So 130 is not bold to me. 150 would be.

Why?

199$ perm price

God of War, Spiderman, Monster Hunter, Yakuza, Shadow of the Colossus, Secret of Mana, Shenmue, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, Ni No Kuni, Red Dead, Detroit become human... ect.

Look at the games 2018 has in store.

I dont think the drop off with be very big (if there even is one), Im pretty sure it ll be about what 2016/2017 was.

I disagree. Even if 10,000 people got a PS4 to play, say, the Yakuza games, when you factor in all the other smaller games it all adds up to a lot. That’s why the PS consoles always sell so well - breadth of the library.

Permanent price cut to $199 will definitely keep momentum going and i get the point you are trying to make with software but you are using some strange examples.

For example, Dragon Quest released earlier this year in the only market where its a big deal, in the West its still a relatively niche franchise and will move very little hardware. Same goes for Yakuza.

It seems like half of your list is games you are personally interested in but will have little to no impact on hardware sales.

The type of software that moves PS4 hardware is primarily going to be AAA western games like it has been for the last 4 years.

The problem with doing this quote soup thing is you miss the point. You turn a broader point into little bits and you miss things in between. Given, my point was pretty simple, but the last line you quote was addressed by my first line. If I'm saying the PS5 will come out in 2019, then my projections would be based on that.  Let's say it's at 70M at years end, another 18 million (which is the high end) would put it at 88M and say another 15 puts it at 103M. These are my higher end estimates and it could decline more in 2018 and 2019, especially given its age. This is how I got there.

Since the greatest point of contention is the PS5, I'll start there. Here is House saying why the PS4 Pro exist

“I saw some data that really influenced me,” House said. “It suggested that there’s a dip mid-console life cycle where the players who want the very best graphical experience will start to migrate to PC, because that’s obviously where it’s to be had. We wanted to keep those people within our ecosystem by giving them the very best and very highest [performance quality]. So the net result of those thoughts was PlayStation 4 Pro—and, by and large, a graphical approach to game improvement.”

http://www.pcgamer.com/sony-says-the-pc-and-not-the-xbox-pushed-it-to-create-the-ps4-pro/

The PS4 Pro is a defensive move against PC. Sony is worried that PC will absorb its users. PS4 and PC are competing around the same line: performance. PC offers that as well as more games and more customization. Moreover, it keeps getting easier and easier to get into PC gaming. In general, the lower end of the market is going to buy the Switch due to its price point and versatility. This puts Sony between that and the PC, and the PC market continues to grow. In 2015, PC gaming growth exceeded console growth and the positive trend continued into 2017. I should also note this growth is in spite of PC sales declining. See the links below

https://gamingbolt.com/pc-gaming-growing-faster-than-consoles

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/01/as-pc-sales-shrink-the-gaming-pc-market-grows-faster-than-expected/

With PS4 Pro being a way to keep users on Playstation, Playstation 5 will serve the same purpose. Because PC is becoming the biggest threat to Sony's business, they will release consoles more frequently, not less. PCs can always be upgraded and improved, so Sony needs to release more hardware to be competitive in that regard. The idea that PS5 will be this massive leap is coming from Sony fans, not Sony. Sony fans want a massive leap in performance and a longer life cycle, but market forces are driving them towards shorter lifespans and mid generation refreshes. This is why the PS5 will come out in 2019.

Now, to your question of Switch absorbing PS's pipeline. Think back to this forum before the Switch came out. DoA. It wont get any games. The system comes out and people say "Yeah, it will get SOME games, but developers will still focus on Playstation because of the foreign market." Then comes October earning releases for Q1, and almost every Japanese company talked about the Switch with most of them pledging more games for the system. The trend has been the Switch is getting more games and a greater development focus.

Games take about 2-3 years to make (and then some), so you won't see the effects of the Nintendo Switch on software till about 2019. But with the system doing very well in Japan and overseas, more Japanese companies are going to be putting it at the forefront. You mentioned the 80 million userbase, but often companies will focus on growing consoles rather than the userbase. This is why the number of new games slows greatly when a new console comes out because the demand is on the new one (and there is also less competition). The PS4 will get shoved to the side just due to age. Nintendo Switch is growing while PS4 is (or at least starting to) decline. Waiting until 2020 means that the new projects starting now will be focused on the Switch and not the PS5. If the system released in 2020, then most of the new projects will be finishing or completing around when the system comes out. Since Sony has a weaker first-party offering, it will be hard for them to get off the ground with their own games (which isn't a problem as much for Nintendo). While this is solely talking about Japan, the US will at least port a lot more games to Switch. The same problem will arise. If US companies also look more seriously at the Switch, their new projects may focus more on that. Releasing a PS5 keeps them developing on your system.

Hopefully this address the points you brought up. Again, its hard to pick anything specific out when its broken out that way. But the issue is that the PS4 is going to decline and there are market pressures (the PC and Switch) which will force Sony to release a new system. Sony will break 100M if it can sell 15M over the next two years. That's not unlikely, but I think that 130M is far too high given what I've mentioned above. For reference, you're talking about 20 million over the next three years (expecting 70M at years end). That's too high.

I say that because while it looks like a potential clean sweep, this industry always takes shifts, dips and dives.

PS4 has been out for quite a while. Those that were waiting on just the right game or a console price drop have gotten that moment this year.  Next year will be about supplying the existing fanbase and stragglers while new tech gets introduced and pushed.  I'm not saying sales will not be stronger for this point in the console's lifespan than we have seen in past generations, but that it will continue to increase at the same rate is a bit of a stretch. Trends we will more likely see: a notable drive toward VR, a lot of software purchases, strong Switch sales numbers, and rumors of next gen offerings following E3.  Other tech is starting to gain popularity outside of video games to fight for the hype such as smart home tech, 4k adoption,  robots (yes), and more.  I think it is possible for continued PS4 sale growth and hope that gaming keeps pushing toward more and more impressive numbers this next year, but I'm not sure older console hardware will be as dramatic as expected.  I guess we will see.

Why would it be 70m at years end? The forecast is 79m shipped by March 2018, the last official sold to consumers numbers were 60.4m as of June 11th.

2017 is looking to be the highest selling (to consumers)  calendar year yet, it's considerably up compared to 2016 so far.

Between May 22nd 2016 and January 1st 2017, 13.4m units were sold.

So between June 11th 2017 and January 1st 2018 we could expect a fairly similar number. So 73m sold to consumers by January 1st 2018 seems like a good rough guess.

PS4 is hitting 110m+ lifetime, not "around 100m."

I said 70M because it's at ~66M per VGchartz. So I figured it would be at 70M year-end. If I'm saying the system has two more years on the market, then 30 million in two years would put it around 100M. Sure, it could be 110M given 73M and 38M over two years and change. I think that's a bit high, but yeah, it could happen. My point was more that 130M is way too high. I think we'll see a bigger drop off in 2018 as the system will enter its 5th year on the market. I was more trying to get a ballpark estimate based on what VGchartz have. So a 3 million difference between what I have and what you had is reasonable as I'm just trying to get close enough.

Yeah, I gave the reason

"I was more trying to get a ballpark estimate based on what VGchartz have"

But for fun, let's compare. From May 2016 to January 2017, # of PS4s sold increased from 40.4 million to 54.3 million, which is about 13 million. PS4 has sold 60.4 million as of June 2017. So another 13 million over about 7 months puts it at 73 million which is what I was responding too.

https://www.playstation.com/en-us/corporate/press-releases/2016/playstation-4-sales-surpass-40-million-units-worldwide/

https://gematsu.com/2017/01/ps4-sells-6-2-million-units-2016-holiday-season-worldwide-sales-top-53-4-million

https://www.twst.com/update/sony-corporation-playstation4-sales-surpass-60-4-million-units-worldwide/

The number doesn't matter too much because I'm making a generalization. Note how I never said where it will exactly be but a ballpark (around 100M). The point was more that I don't think it will sell 130 million. A difference of 3 million won't change that, and my back of the napkin guess was close enough so that I could make my point. Forest vs trees people. 

Would be especially hard considering Sony probably sold over 2 million units alone on black Friday. So unless the PS4 is sold out everywhere it will easily hit the 7.5 million target these holidays. Especially with a nice Christmas discount.