Bold Prediction : PS4 goes over 130m Lifetime.

[VideoGameAccountant]

Barkley said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

Let's say it's at 70M at years end, another 18 million (which is the high end) would put it at 88M and say another 15 puts it at 103M. These are my higher end estimates and it could decline more in 2018 and 2019, especially given its age. This is how I got there.

Why would it be 70m at years end? The forecast is 79m shipped by March 2018, the last official sold to consumers numbers were 60.4m as of June 11th.

2017 is looking to be the highest selling (to consumers)  calendar year yet, it's considerably up compared to 2016 so far.

Between May 22nd 2016 and January 1st 2017, 13.4m units were sold.

So between June 11th 2017 and January 1st 2018 we could expect a fairly similar number. So 73m sold to consumers by January 1st 2018 seems like a good rough guess.

PS4 is hitting 110m+ lifetime, not "around 100m."

I said 70M because it's at ~66M per VGchartz. So I figured it would be at 70M year-end. If I'm saying the system has two more years on the market, then 30 million in two years would put it around 100M. Sure, it could be 110M given 73M and 38M over two years and change. I think that's a bit high, but yeah, it could happen. My point was more that 130M is way too high. I think we'll see a bigger drop off in 2018 as the system will enter its 5th year on the market. I was more trying to get a ballpark estimate based on what VGchartz have. So a 3 million difference between what I have and what you had is reasonable as I'm just trying to get close enough.