JRPGfan said:
"The PS5 will be another half-step to keep players on PlayStation." it wont, it ll be its own gen.
"There is also the reality of Nintendo Switch which will absorb a lot of Sony's software pipeline." Why? PS4 will be at 80m units shipped soon. Why would the switch steal anything software wise from the PS4? it ll be minor, most developers want their stuff on the console with 80m units (vs the one at 13m or so, by then).
"Because Sony is dependent on third-party companies to bring the software, they can't let Nintendo remain unchallenged." Why is nintendo unchallenged? theres a PS4 and XB1 on the market place too, for people that want a console. " If Sony waits to long, all of the new projects that are starting could be Switch focused or a Switch exclusive." This sounds borderline crazy lol. All future software will 100% be switch exclusive confirmed, no more 3rd party for sony right? :)
"I do think projections for PS4 are overly aggressive anyway. Sony projected a decline in shipments which means a decline in sales going forward." They shipped 20m last year, and this year their planning to ship 19m. They upped their forecast from 18m to 19m, and I wouldnt be surprised if they did more. So it ll end up another 20m this year too, come march you ll hear sony talking about how it beat their predictions or such.
"2017 will likely be about 2016 and then decline thereafter. 2018 will not see 20 million sold (18m would be good)." That sounds resonable..... 20m in 2017, like 2016 was, putting it at 80m, and then it does 18m units in 2018 putting it around 98m come start of 2019.
"It could probably break 100 million over the next two years, but I think it will end up right around there." You just said it would do 18m in 2018 above..... that means it ll probably be around 100m in almost 1 year, not 2. 80m + 18m = 98m, by your own words, it should do what you said break 100m almost within 1 year. If it does so, and still has 2019,2020 (ps5 launch), 2021,2022,2023 to sell in... you dont think it ll go well over 100m? that doesnt sound logical. |
The problem with doing this quote soup thing is you miss the point. You turn a broader point into little bits and you miss things in between. Given, my point was pretty simple, but the last line you quote was addressed by my first line. If I'm saying the PS5 will come out in 2019, then my projections would be based on that. Let's say it's at 70M at years end, another 18 million (which is the high end) would put it at 88M and say another 15 puts it at 103M. These are my higher end estimates and it could decline more in 2018 and 2019, especially given its age. This is how I got there.
Since the greatest point of contention is the PS5, I'll start there. Here is House saying why the PS4 Pro exist
“I saw some data that really influenced me,” House said. “It suggested that there’s a dip mid-console life cycle where the players who want the very best graphical experience will start to migrate to PC, because that’s obviously where it’s to be had. We wanted to keep those people within our ecosystem by giving them the very best and very highest [performance quality]. So the net result of those thoughts was PlayStation 4 Pro—and, by and large, a graphical approach to game improvement.”
http://www.pcgamer.com/sony-says-the-pc-and-not-the-xbox-pushed-it-to-create-the-ps4-pro/
The PS4 Pro is a defensive move against PC. Sony is worried that PC will absorb its users. PS4 and PC are competing around the same line: performance. PC offers that as well as more games and more customization. Moreover, it keeps getting easier and easier to get into PC gaming. In general, the lower end of the market is going to buy the Switch due to its price point and versatility. This puts Sony between that and the PC, and the PC market continues to grow. In 2015, PC gaming growth exceeded console growth and the positive trend continued into 2017. I should also note this growth is in spite of PC sales declining. See the links below
https://gamingbolt.com/pc-gaming-growing-faster-than-consoles
With PS4 Pro being a way to keep users on Playstation, Playstation 5 will serve the same purpose. Because PC is becoming the biggest threat to Sony's business, they will release consoles more frequently, not less. PCs can always be upgraded and improved, so Sony needs to release more hardware to be competitive in that regard. The idea that PS5 will be this massive leap is coming from Sony fans, not Sony. Sony fans want a massive leap in performance and a longer life cycle, but market forces are driving them towards shorter lifespans and mid generation refreshes. This is why the PS5 will come out in 2019.
Now, to your question of Switch absorbing PS's pipeline. Think back to this forum before the Switch came out. DoA. It wont get any games. The system comes out and people say "Yeah, it will get SOME games, but developers will still focus on Playstation because of the foreign market." Then comes October earning releases for Q1, and almost every Japanese company talked about the Switch with most of them pledging more games for the system. The trend has been the Switch is getting more games and a greater development focus.
Games take about 2-3 years to make (and then some), so you won't see the effects of the Nintendo Switch on software till about 2019. But with the system doing very well in Japan and overseas, more Japanese companies are going to be putting it at the forefront. You mentioned the 80 million userbase, but often companies will focus on growing consoles rather than the userbase. This is why the number of new games slows greatly when a new console comes out because the demand is on the new one (and there is also less competition). The PS4 will get shoved to the side just due to age. Nintendo Switch is growing while PS4 is (or at least starting to) decline. Waiting until 2020 means that the new projects starting now will be focused on the Switch and not the PS5. If the system released in 2020, then most of the new projects will be finishing or completing around when the system comes out. Since Sony has a weaker first-party offering, it will be hard for them to get off the ground with their own games (which isn't a problem as much for Nintendo). While this is solely talking about Japan, the US will at least port a lot more games to Switch. The same problem will arise. If US companies also look more seriously at the Switch, their new projects may focus more on that. Releasing a PS5 keeps them developing on your system.
Hopefully this address the points you brought up. Again, its hard to pick anything specific out when its broken out that way. But the issue is that the PS4 is going to decline and there are market pressures (the PC and Switch) which will force Sony to release a new system. Sony will break 100M if it can sell 15M over the next two years. That's not unlikely, but I think that 130M is far too high given what I've mentioned above. For reference, you're talking about 20 million over the next three years (expecting 70M at years end). That's too high.
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