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Forums - Movies & TV - U.S box office has its worst weekend in 15 years!

Lawlight said:
Chris Hu said:

Ghostbusters was last year it mostly failed because it was a terrible movie not the female cast.  The franchise not having a huge overseas following didn't help either because there a plenty of terrible franchises that get bailed out by overseas numbers. 

Funny you say that because critics think Ghostbusters is a good movie.

Its critic metascore is 60 which is slightly below average not good which is 70 or higher.  I'm pretty sure there are plenty proffesional reviewers that hated it as much as most of the general public.



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Maybe if Hollywood stopped releasing CGI, special effect bore-fests that rely on one thing and one thing only and started releasing character driven, heart felt, original classics again... things would rebound.



Shadow1980 said:
Lawlight said:

The number of people going to the theatres is decreasing while the population is increasing. The average ticket price is going up every single year - that's what's keeping the numerical value up. Hollywood isn't in crisis - movie theatres are the ones facing a crisis.

Hard to say if it's actual number of people, since all we have are grosses and estimated tickets sold based on average prices. We don't know how many individuals made at least one trip to the theater in a given year, or how many of them were repeat visits. But in any case per capita ticket sales have indeed declined since 2002 (see chart from other post), as have total ticket sales:

That's a 16.6% decline. So, even in absolute terms we're seeing fewer tickets despite a growing population.

However, I decided to take a look at some different metrics to see if I could discern any detail about what changes in habits moviegoers might be exhibiting. While I did some rounding, I was able to determine that the top 20 movies of 2002 grossed just slightly over $6B adjusted domestically, while in 2016 the top 20 movies combined to around $5.7B, a decline of only about 5%. The top 10 movies of each year showed 2016 down only 1.5% vs. 2002, nearly flat. It's possible that moviegoers are simply reducing their trips and focusing on fewer titles that provide quality entertainment (for a given definition of "quality").

Whenever I have time, I'm going to piece together more detailed charts to see what I come up with.

Shadow, your just...great.



Chris Hu said:
Lawlight said:

Funny you say that because critics think Ghostbusters is a good movie.

Its critic metascore is 60 which is slightly below average not good which is 70 or higher.  I'm pretty sure there are plenty proffesional reviewers that hated it as much as most of the general public.

60 for movies on metacritic is above average. 61 is what's considered good for movies, not 70.

On top of that, 73% of critics recommend the movie. 



Ticket sales are decent still though.

Seems to me really that 1996-2004 experienced a boom and movie ticket sales are still at a healthy-ish clip considering movie ticket prices have outpaced inflation (not to mention pop corn and drinks probably cost a ton more these days too). So maybe '96-'04 should be looked at as an outlier rather than the normal.

Yes the population is higher, but so are the competitive choices. In 1998 you didn't have Netflix, Youtube, DVRs to record TV, you didn't have TV on the scale of Game Of Thrones (let alone 200 different TV shows in your back catalog to get to), you couldn't pirate movies so easily. In '98 your options generally were to go to Blockbuster Video and rent 1 movie for the weekend, and if the 10 copies of the New Release you wanted to watch were gone, well tough shit, you were watching something else, lol. None of that "instant streaming" of new releases that every cable service has today. 



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I'm not the biggest movie fan but lately, I've found TV / streaming shows to be a lot more interesting than movies. I think the competition is really strong here, at least for me personally. Also agree that political statements are a turn-off. The guy who made the emoji movie (!) said it would "fight Trump" and show a female character "break through a glass ceiling". And the Oscars were just cringe-worthy. 



Chris Hu said:
DonFerrari said:
And what if we discount inflation, how many more years would we would go back on this record?

I'm guessing in over 30 years and this weekend is going to be even worse.  The end of the year North American box office is going to be down compared to last year unless we get a bunch of movies that over perform in the final three month but I can't see that happen.  2017 really hasn't been a very good year when it comes to quality movies especially live action comedies.  Baywatch was terrible and everything else wasn't much better either and the rest of the year there is really nothing else except for sequels that don't look better then the original movies either. 

Very bad, and as another user said if we consider the demography changes this would be one of the worse weekends in probably over 50 years or how many years since movie theathers became widespread.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

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Louie said:

I'm not the biggest movie fan but lately, I've found TV / streaming shows to be a lot more interesting than movies. I think the competition is really strong here, at least for me personally. Also agree that political statements are a turn-off. The guy who made the emoji movie (!) said it would "fight Trump" and show a female character "break through a glass ceiling". And the Oscars were just cringe-worthy. 

Agree a hundred percent. Also, the benefit of shows is that you can flesh out characters longer while a movie you have an hour at best to do so.



Chris Hu said:
bigjon said:
The movie studios should only blame themselves. They, many of their writers, and many of their stars simply could not resist making political statements. Which is really really stupid when you are selling a product that you want as many people to consume as possible.

The political shit can work if it jives with the product you sell (meaning the type of people who enjoy your product would be drawn in by you espoting your political views) an example of this would be a Michael Moore type, the people who watch something he makes would likely be increase by his political activity. Cannot say the same about products intended to go mass market.

?????? You right wingers crack me up.  Take off your tin foil hat please and take your meds.  There haven't been making any political statements in any major movies lately.  The box office is down because we had a bunch of crap movies and uninspired sequels so far this year.

Right winger? I guess if you have to resort to name calling you have no legitimate response. 

Also I was reffering more to things they people themselves are doing. It distracts from their product. See Johnney Depp as a good recent example. 

They have every right to spout off stupid shit but I just wish they wouldn't because it distracts from the product. Michael Jordan had/has it right. He was once asked why he does not make political statements and his response was "Republicans buy shoes too" 

 

 

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Soundwave said:

Ticket sales are decent still though.

Seems to me really that 1996-2004 experienced a boom and movie ticket sales are still at a healthy-ish clip considering movie ticket prices have outpaced inflation (not to mention pop corn and drinks probably cost a ton more these days too). So maybe '96-'04 should be looked at as an outlier rather than the normal.

Yes the population is higher, but so are the competitive choices. In 1998 you didn't have Netflix, Youtube, DVRs to record TV, you didn't have TV on the scale of Game Of Thrones (let alone 200 different TV shows in your back catalog to get to), you couldn't pirate movies so easily. In '98 your options generally were to go to Blockbuster Video and rent 1 movie for the weekend, and if the 10 copies of the New Release you wanted to watch were gone, well tough shit, you were watching something else, lol. None of that "instant streaming" of new releases that every cable service has today. 

 The decline in ticket sales seems to align to several factors and to me the single biggest is the proliferation of flat screen tv/ hd. It used to be you saw a movie because you did not have to wait and because the quality of the big screen was infinitly better than 99% of people's home theater systems. Now for about 1000 bucks you can get a very very good home theater. Missing it in the theaters for quality reasons is less of an issue now.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut