Soundwave said:
Ticket sales are decent still though.
Seems to me really that 1996-2004 experienced a boom and movie ticket sales are still at a healthy-ish clip considering movie ticket prices have outpaced inflation (not to mention pop corn and drinks probably cost a ton more these days too). So maybe '96-'04 should be looked at as an outlier rather than the normal.
Yes the population is higher, but so are the competitive choices. In 1998 you didn't have Netflix, Youtube, DVRs to record TV, you didn't have TV on the scale of Game Of Thrones (let alone 200 different TV shows in your back catalog to get to), you couldn't pirate movies so easily. In '98 your options generally were to go to Blockbuster Video and rent 1 movie for the weekend, and if the 10 copies of the New Release you wanted to watch were gone, well tough shit, you were watching something else, lol. None of that "instant streaming" of new releases that every cable service has today.
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The decline in ticket sales seems to align to several factors and to me the single biggest is the proliferation of flat screen tv/ hd. It used to be you saw a movie because you did not have to wait and because the quality of the big screen was infinitly better than 99% of people's home theater systems. Now for about 1000 bucks you can get a very very good home theater. Missing it in the theaters for quality reasons is less of an issue now.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
