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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Mario Odyssey, Breath of the Wild, and Splatoon 2 will all pass 10 million

 

What do you think?

You're right curl 273 64.24%
 
Go home curl you're drunk 152 35.76%
 
Total:425

I certainly wouldn't bet against you, Curl. It will all depend on just how many units the Switch sells.I personally think a safer bet would be to replace BotW with the upcoming Pokemon RPG as I feel Pokemon has a 90%+ chance of selling more than 10 million. BotW is amazing, but if Ocarina of Time couldn't break 10 million for some insane reason I am just not sure if a masterpiece like BotW has enough pop culture appeal to get to the 10 million threshold either.



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Illusion said:

I certainly wouldn't bet against you, Curl. It will all depend on just how many units the Switch sells.I personally think a safer bet would be to replace BotW with the upcoming Pokemon RPG as I feel Pokemon has a 90%+ chance of selling more than 10 million. BotW is amazing, but if Ocarina of Time couldn't break 10 million for some insane reason I am just not sure if a masterpiece like BotW has enough pop culture appeal to get to the 10 million threshold either.

The reason Ocarina of Time couldn't do it was because the Nintendo 64 only sold 33 million units. The Switch will blow past that mark without breaking 2 sweats. 
As far as pop culture appeal goes, one could say the most popular video game behind FPS and Sports is the open-world/sandbox type game, be it action adventure (GTA) or RPG (Skyrim) and Breath of the Wild has garnered the reputation of one of the best if not THE best one of them all and it isn't just on a system that is popular and everyone wants, but is THE game to get for the system. The Switch version is tracking well ahead of the Wii version of Twilight Princess and is currently beating it comfortably in a week by week basis. There's a chance that the Switch version alone will do 10 million, add the Wii U version, which is on track to pass the GameCube version of Twilight Princess, and that chance increases dramatically.



mZuzek said:

This prediction isn't supposed to be about guaranteed things, that's why it's a prediction. Saying Pokémon is going to sell 10 million is like saying the Sun will rise again tomorrow - there's no value in it whatsoever. If anything, I'd say it has a 90%+ chance of selling more than 15 million, never mind 10.

Yeah, you're probably right.  That said, this is the first time that my making a bad prediction actually feels nice, I am just happy to see Nintendo winning again.  Two years ago I just never thought I would see a day when I would be scratching Nintendo home console releases off a list in trying to find one that may sell less that 10 million. 



Yes I think all three games will make it to 10 million. Mario Odyssey seems pretty obvious. Splatoon 2 should on the strength of Japan. I bet it'll sell 4-5 million in Japan alone so that gets it over 10 million. Zelda has never even cracked 8 million, but I think this will be the one to hit 10 million (Switch version only), though i think it will just barely creep over 10 mil a few years from now.



All 3 games have good chances to hit 10m, I would include MK8D also like game that has good chances to hit 10m.



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Zelda will, Mario might, Splatoon wont.



Azzanation said:
Zelda will, Mario might, Splatoon wont.

Wait, how does Mario have less of a chance than Zelda?



StarDoor said:
Azzanation said:
Zelda will, Mario might, Splatoon wont.

Wait, how does Mario have less of a chance than Zelda?

Zelda is already a masterpiece, We dont know how good Mario is yet. Hence why i said might.



Azzanation said:
StarDoor said:

Wait, how does Mario have less of a chance than Zelda?

Zelda is already a masterpiece, We dont know how good Mario is yet. Hence why i said might.

Fair enough, though 3D Mario has always been just as critically acclaimed as 3D Zelda, on top of always selling better.



zelad has smaller traction in japan while EVERYONE loves mario.
splatoon currently IS bigger than mario as far as japan is concerned... its going to sell 3 mil minimum 6 mil max in japan alone.