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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Switch's First Year Sales

Around 13 millions would be my bet.



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I've said 8-9 million from March to December. Guess I have to increase that a bit, though. But following my original predictions, I'd say 10-11 million for the fiscal year.



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Hmm... I'll go with 9 million. A little conservative, I know. Will be happy to eat crow while playing my own switch this holiday.



12m



Right around WiiU's lifetime sales. I'll say 13m.



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Before any e3 game announcement......

I would say 10mil!



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15 million. The system keeps exceeding my expectations. So I don't want that to keep happening.



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The price is the biggest threat I see to the Switch's sales this year (pretty much everything else, IMO, has been on-point and executed well). Unless, Nintendo does a price drop (at least $50 but more ideally $70-$100; or perhaps both with the $250 coming bundled with something) I, personally, have a difficult time seeing it be competitive against XOne S and PS4 Slim come this Holiday season.

Until we get a more clear post-launch baseline, I am going to be super-conservative and say 5.5 million. I am pretty sure I will revise this later (hopefully significantly upwards), but I do not feel like launch data is the best source to make bold predictions, so I am going to play it safe for now.



10-12m is my guess for the first 12 months.



nemo37 said:
The price is the biggest threat I see to the Switch's sales this year (pretty much everything else, IMO, has been on-point and executed well). Unless, Nintendo does a price drop (at least $50 but more ideally $70-$100; or perhaps both with the $250 coming bundled with something) I, personally, have a difficult time seeing it be competitive against XOne S and PS4 Slim come this Holiday season.

Until we get a more clear post-launch baseline, I am going to be super-conservative and say 5.5 million. I am pretty sure I will revise this later (hopefully significantly upwards), but I do not feel like launch data is the best source to make bold predictions, so I am going to play it safe for now.

There is no any need for price cut in 1st year, Switch is very intresting and apeling console, it has huge system seller game like launch title and few other very strong titles like MK8D, Splatoon2 and Mario Odyssey in its 1st 9 monts, has great brending and marketing. Switch has own value like hybrid system compared to PS4/XB1 and has huge system seller games. I dont see any price cut this year, but I can see some bundle with MK8D for instance for same current price of $299 for holiday season.

Yes, that's super-supervative prediction, Switch will achive those numbers just from launch month and holiday season.

 

 

SpokenTruth said:
It is possible that it might sell Wii U lifetime total in just the first year.

Though I'll say a more conservative 11 million is likely.

Tottaly agree.