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Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - 10th - 16th April 2017

zorg1000 said:
naruball said:

Perhaps from all of those nintendo fans who keep predicting it will sell 100m+ and even stated before its launch that the reason is that it will combine 3ds + wiiu users? Or are we supposed to pretend they never made such claims?

most people didnt say it would sell better than 3DS+Wii U because its the successor to both, the argument was that it made no sense to assume Wii U level sales since its also the successor to 3DS. There is a huge difference.

We can look at the NX prediction threads. Also, never said most, and I specifically said I wasn't referring to most.

What I find funny is people telling off Lawlight (and a few others?), a ps fan, for saying it has to beat 3ds+wiiu combined, whereas they had no issue with those nintendo fans (don't know how many they were) who were predicting it would do more than 3ds+wiiu combined because it will attract both audiences. What changed? How was their opinion fine and remained unchallenged from fellow Ninty fans but a ps fan's same opinion is being attacked?



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naruball said:
Mnementh said:

I know you're baiting, but I bite. It doesn't matter as which successor the selling company places a device, it matters what people make of it. Seemingly looking at the charts the japanese take the Switch as Vita-successor. 3DS isn't hurt so far by Switch. So now we rephrase your statement: "Was there any doubt that the Vita successor would outsell the PS4?" Yes, there was doubt.

This is so flawed, it's not even funny. How did the ps2 and nds do after 3ds and ps3 launched?

According to VGC, numbers in the year before and after launch (if launch was late in the year like November I count the year as pre-launch, if it was early in the year like March as after launch).

PS3 2013: 8.25M 2014: 3.56M
X360 2013: 6.24M 2014: 2.60M
Wii 2012: 5.08M 2013: 1.95M
PSP 2011: 7.46M 2012: 4.22M
DS 2010: 20.62M 2011: 8.76M

As you can see, all major hardware in recent gens that got a successor that was taken as such took a major hit to the sales. You see the biggest outlier is the PSP, the Vita didn't took off that hot, so probably not many PSP-owners saw the Vita as a viable successor. 3DS so far seems to be quite stable, while Vita seems to be affected. Give me different data to go by, and I may change my mind, but the data so far suggests that SO FAR people not taking Switch so much as a 3DS-successor, but as a Vita-successor.



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RolStoppable said:
naruball said:

We can look at the NX prediction threads. Also, never said most, and I specifically said I wasn't referring to most.

What I find funny is people telling off Lawlight (and a few others?), a ps fan, for saying it has to beat 3ds+wiiu combined, whereas they has no issue with those nintendo fans (don't know how many they were) who were predicting it would do more than 3ds+wiiu combined because it will attract both audiences. What changed? How was their opinion fine and remained unchallenged from fellow Ninty fans but a ps fan's same opinion is being attacked?

Lawlight is a user who has an extensive track record of grasping for straws to downplay everything that Nintendo does. He is widely considered as a troll, so he isn't going to get treated with the same respect as the average VGC member.

Thank you, there is a readon why Law wasnt allowed to post in nintendo threads. And Naru ignored my post from before so i dont kno why he is carrying this through



naruball said:
Jranation said:
Not sure where or how he got that idea of how the Switch "needs" to do better than the 3DS + Wii U....... lol xD

Perhaps from all of those nintendo fans who keep predicting it will sell 100m+ and even stated before its launch that the reason is that it will combine 3ds + wiiu users? Or are we supposed to pretend they never made such claims?

Where are "all those Nintendo-fans"? In the thread, only 5.3% voted for 100M+. So you making up this horde of delusional Nintendo-fans to burn the strawmen. Yes, there is always a John Lucas with outrageous claims, but mostly the predictions were by far more moderate. So please stop making up "facts", that are just untrue.



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naruball said:
Jranation said:
Not sure where or how he got that idea of how the Switch "needs" to do better than the 3DS + Wii U....... lol xD

Perhaps from all of those nintendo fans who keep predicting it will sell 100m+ and even stated before its launch that the reason is that it will combine 3ds + wiiu users? Or are we supposed to pretend they never made such claims?

I am one of those that did one of these claims, and I still believe it will do 100 millions plus, but that is different than saying it MEEDS 100 millions to be successful.The system can still be successful at 60 millions, for example, if its software sells exceptionally well.



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naruball said:
zorg1000 said:

most people didnt say it would sell better than 3DS+Wii U because its the successor to both, the argument was that it made no sense to assume Wii U level sales since its also the successor to 3DS. There is a huge difference.

We can look at the NX prediction threads. Also, never said most, and I specifically said I wasn't referring to most.

What I find funny is people telling off Lawlight (and a few others?), a ps fan, for saying it has to beat 3ds+wiiu combined, whereas they had no issue with those nintendo fans (don't know how many they were) who were predicting it would do more than 3ds+wiiu combined because it will attract both audiences. What changed? How was their opinion fine and remained unchallenged from fellow Ninty fans but a ps fan's same opinion is being attacked?

how are those the same thing? saying you think something can sell a certain amount and saying it has to sell a certain amount are two different things.

"i think Switch will sell more than 3DS & Wii U combined and be successful."

"Switch has to sell more than 3DS & Wii U combined to be successful."

do you not see the difference?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

naruball said:
tbone51 said:

I dont get what you mean by this, can you explain? (Not to startvan argument, im just curious)

 

Also there is some truth to what he said. It looks like switch is more successor to vita then anything. Looking at the current japanese support, it has some things going for it that suggest there will be plenty of softwarr in the future that will be ps4/switch multiplat insteaf of ps4vita.

 

We will get a better understanding of this in the near future of course. Vita sales are dropping but i dont think its mostly due to the switch as mang pointed out it was already going down. Minecraft was the reason it did hold on so surprisingly well this paat year and half.

I was pretty clear. You, on the other hand, not so much, I'm afraid. You didn't explain why there is truth in what he said.

He argued that the switch is the successor of vita and wiiu. Well, not necessarilly the case. Vita numbers didn't suddenly fall. It hasn't done well in quite a while and stopped getting proper support some time ago (nothing najor announced for it). So the vita numbers are far from surprising and possibly have nothing to do with the Switch. He also argued that 3ds numbers haven't been affected, but the same thing happened with ps3. The ps2 numbers remained strong. Did that mean that the ps3 was not perceived as the successor of ps2? Of course not. The ps2 got support well after the ps3 launched. Same thing happening with 3ds, hence its sales. We had a new MH game just a few weeks ago and it's been rulling the charts since it came out. Of course it helped 3ds.

No, I did not say that. What I said exactly was:

"It doesn't matter as which successor the selling company places a device, it matters what people make of it. Seemingly looking at the charts the japanese take the Switch as Vita-successor. 3DS isn't hurt so far by Switch."

I didn't say anything about the WiiU as you claim. I said that the numbers may suggest, that japanese people did so far see the Switch more as a successor to the Vita than the 3DS. You can argue, that the drop in Vita-numbers is unrelated to Switch (as we never will know), but the 3DS did hold stable. You go on that the PS2 stayed stable after PS3. Maybe, then PS3 probably wasn't seen as a valid successor of PS2 first. Exactly what I said. Sadly I have no PS2 numbers for that time, but in my other post I showed the most recent five systems that got an successor. They all dropped strongly in sales. Maybe the 3DS will drop too later in this year. That's why I said so far. I based my argument in data. Maybe you draw different conclusions, but you cannot so simply shoo away my argument with just an opinion.



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naruball said:
tbone51 said:

Doesnt matter if its nintendo side or sonys (or ms) You cant use a couple of users predictions and act like its the majority. Logically its still to early to tell but just because a couple of users believe itll do 100mil doesnt mean it (the switch) needs to outselll 3ds+wiiu combined to be successful.

 

Like i said before its good to sell a ton of hardware, but selling units isnt everything.

 

PS4 can stop selling right now, end production and despite a 20mil+ difference to PS3, its clearly the winner of the 2. Not because of HW sales, but because one made alot of money while the other lost a ton. (And seems like ps4 vs x1 ratio in softwares are killings compared to that of ps3 vs x360)

 

Its obvious lawlight is using wiiu+3ds as a goalpost because its the highest some1 could use atm. 

Who said it's the majority? Just like we had some people saying it will do 100m+ because both 3ds and wiiu owners will buy it, we have some people saying it needs to match 3ds + wiiu sales. Why is the first group ignored and the second accused of "moving the goalpost"? Also, if you look at your posts, this is what you keep saying whenever says something; "you moved the goalpost!". Seriously, take a look at your posts even from other threads and you may notice it yourself.

ALL these Nintendo-fans in your first post just got downgraded to SOME people. Funny.



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naruball said:
zorg1000 said:

most people didnt say it would sell better than 3DS+Wii U because its the successor to both, the argument was that it made no sense to assume Wii U level sales since its also the successor to 3DS. There is a huge difference.

We can look at the NX prediction threads. Also, never said most, and I specifically said I wasn't referring to most.

What I find funny is people telling off Lawlight (and a few others?), a ps fan, for saying it has to beat 3ds+wiiu combined, whereas they had no issue with those nintendo fans (don't know how many they were) who were predicting it would do more than 3ds+wiiu combined because it will attract both audiences. What changed? How was their opinion fine and remained unchallenged from fellow Ninty fans but a ps fan's same opinion is being attacked?

LOL. If 'all those Nintendo-fans' doesn't equal to most or whatever, you should be fine if someone says 'all these Sony-fans hating the Switch for no apparent reason'. Well no, this doesn't mean Sony-fans as a group, it only includes all these Sony-fans that hate the Switch for no apparent reason. LOL.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
naruball said:

We can look at the NX prediction threads. Also, never said most, and I specifically said I wasn't referring to most.

What I find funny is people telling off Lawlight (and a few others?), a ps fan, for saying it has to beat 3ds+wiiu combined, whereas they had no issue with those nintendo fans (don't know how many they were) who were predicting it would do more than 3ds+wiiu combined because it will attract both audiences. What changed? How was their opinion fine and remained unchallenged from fellow Ninty fans but a ps fan's same opinion is being attacked?

LOL. If 'all those Nintendo-fans' doesn't equal to most or whatever, you should be fine if someone says 'all these Sony-fans hating the Switch for no apparent reason'. Well no, this doesn't mean Sony-fans as a group, it only includes all these Sony-fans that hate the Switch for no apparent reason. LOL.

You can equate whatever you want. I'll stick to what I said.