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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates in the OP!

 

Whats being said is just the possible reasoning behind PS not showing their numbers. There are legit reasons why they might not want to show them like how PS knows they've won this gen so they dont care, but its just as possible that PS is "losing ground" and wants to keep that hush hush. No business in their right mind goes out and tells people we're losing and hopes to keep the momentum going, especially with the launch of an updated product to the line up. This is why after years of PS boasting about their sales, it seems odd why they all of the sudden changed their tone.

If PS only won because of their Pro sales, its concerning to a degree. Yes they have Pro, yes they have a 6 month head start on Switch and around 1 year on Scorpio, but that just makes you wonder how much more ground can MS make up when Scorpio shows up to this gen. Even more concerning would be what if Scorpio shows up and its actually next gen, what then?

How Pro sales were divided up between existing PS4 users and new buyers also would help answer some questions, but 2017 sales should tell us that. If sales stay strong for Pro, no worries, if they slowly dwindle, its most likely because PS4 users were just upgrading.

Its all a bunch of what if's, and nobody knows for sure, but thats the conversation at hand. At the end of the day, PS won, which is great, and was likely, so congrats to them.

They've just shown their numbers, did you not see their 50m report. Or are you expecting them to mention USA only sales each month, which they havent been doing this whole gen (and they didnt do that for many years on the PS3 either to be fair)...whether winning or losing, Sony have not been giving monthly numbers, so dont know why you think they have been. They only report on the big numbers, not the monthly numbers unless there is something significant, in this case "Best BF ever".

Your statements are full of what if's the only thing that matters is good sales numbers and good software numbers, I think we can assume that they've done well in November, and they had a lull the previous few months. Software releases this year havent been as strong as last year, but a small descrease in % will not be of concern to them, the console is doing better than their quite aggressive forecasts.



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Swordmasterman said:
EricHiggin said:

 

Whats being said is just the possible reasoning behind PS not showing their numbers. There are legit reasons why they might not want to show them like how PS knows they've won this gen so they dont care, but its just as possible that PS is "losing ground" and wants to keep that hush hush. No business in their right mind goes out and tells people we're losing and hopes to keep the momentum going, especially with the launch of an updated product to the line up. This is why after years of PS boasting about their sales, it seems odd why they all of the sudden changed their tone.

If PS only won because of their Pro sales, its concerning to a degree. Yes they have Pro, yes they have a 6 month head start on Switch and around 1 year on Scorpio, but that just makes you wonder how much more ground can MS make up when Scorpio shows up to this gen. Even more concerning would be what if Scorpio shows up and its actually next gen, what then?

How Pro sales were divided up between existing PS4 users and new buyers also would help answer some questions, but 2017 sales should tell us that. If sales stay strong for Pro, no worries, if they slowly dwindle, its most likely because PS4 users were just upgrading.

Its all a bunch of what if's, and nobody knows for sure, but thats the conversation at hand. At the end of the day, PS won, which is great, and was likely, so congrats to them.

That isn't a concern. Scorpio won't be a thing for Sony since they would need a 30-50 millions lead in the USA and UK in order to outsell a Playstation console WW.

If not even Nintendo or Sega were able to win Europe and other regions, why would Microsoft be able ? They don't invest in first party games.

It really doesn't matter if the Pro is a flop while the Slim give a 20-30% YOY grow for the PS4. Pro isn't a PS5. If Sony can manage well the success of the PS4, the PS5 can be even more successful just like  the PS2 sold better than the PS1.

 

Without the USA, Sony still has 33 Millions of units sold, without the UK, 29-30 millions, still more than Xbox One's ww numbers.

This isn't much of a concern for PS4, correct. PS4 has this gen locked up, unless Scorpio fits in this gen as well, and MS starts offering deals like we've never seen before, which is highly unlikely.

The concern is what if Xbox is gaining traction, and what if Scorpio is next gen?

Madword said:

 

Whats being said is just the possible reasoning behind PS not showing their numbers. There are legit reasons why they might not want to show them like how PS knows they've won this gen so they dont care, but its just as possible that PS is "losing ground" and wants to keep that hush hush. No business in their right mind goes out and tells people we're losing and hopes to keep the momentum going, especially with the launch of an updated product to the line up. This is why after years of PS boasting about their sales, it seems odd why they all of the sudden changed their tone.

If PS only won because of their Pro sales, its concerning to a degree. Yes they have Pro, yes they have a 6 month head start on Switch and around 1 year on Scorpio, but that just makes you wonder how much more ground can MS make up when Scorpio shows up to this gen. Even more concerning would be what if Scorpio shows up and its actually next gen, what then?

How Pro sales were divided up between existing PS4 users and new buyers also would help answer some questions, but 2017 sales should tell us that. If sales stay strong for Pro, no worries, if they slowly dwindle, its most likely because PS4 users were just upgrading.

Its all a bunch of what if's, and nobody knows for sure, but thats the conversation at hand. At the end of the day, PS won, which is great, and was likely, so congrats to them.

They've just shown their numbers, did you not see their 50m report. Or are you expecting them to mention USA only sales each month, which they havent been doing this whole gen (and they didnt do that for many years on the PS3 either to be fair)...whether winning or losing, Sony have not been giving monthly numbers, so dont know why you think they have been. They only report on the big numbers, not the monthly numbers unless there is something significant, in this case "Best BF ever".

Your statements are full of what if's the only thing that matters is good sales numbers and good software numbers, I think we can assume that they've done well in November, and they had a lull the previous few months. Software releases this year havent been as strong as last year, but a small descrease in % will not be of concern to them, the console is doing better than their quite aggressive forecasts.

There are lots of people wanting PS to show their numbers with the "BBF EVER" statement. It doesn't mean they will though. PS can do whatever they want.

The 50mil number is not all that matters. Adding software to that helps yes, but whats happenening with the competition matters a whole lot as well. A great example is when PS2 was selling like hot cakes, and Xbox was selling just ok. What ended up happening because PS didn't pay attention to what was happening at MS? The 360 launches a year before PS3 and steals tonnes of business from PS. The hardware, the games, the price, the launch, the "proor" Xbox sales, all contributed to this, and PS had put themselves in a horrible position.

If PS lets this happen again, they could very well suffer with Pro and PS5, if Scorpio turns out to be next gen. Again, this doesn't matter much as to PS4 sales, but the future of the brand most definitely, its all interlocked.



EricHiggin said:
Swordmasterman said:

That isn't a concern. Scorpio won't be a thing for Sony since they would need a 30-50 millions lead in the USA and UK in order to outsell a Playstation console WW.

If not even Nintendo or Sega were able to win Europe and other regions, why would Microsoft be able ? They don't invest in first party games.

It really doesn't matter if the Pro is a flop while the Slim give a 20-30% YOY grow for the PS4. Pro isn't a PS5. If Sony can manage well the success of the PS4, the PS5 can be even more successful just like  the PS2 sold better than the PS1.

 

Without the USA, Sony still has 33 Millions of units sold, without the UK, 29-30 millions, still more than Xbox One's ww numbers.

This isn't much of a concern for PS4, correct. PS4 has this gen locked up, unless Scorpio fits in this gen as well, and MS starts offering deals like we've never seen before, which is highly unlikely.

The concern is what if Xbox is gaining traction, and what if Scorpio is next gen?

Madword said:

They've just shown their numbers, did you not see their 50m report. Or are you expecting them to mention USA only sales each month, which they havent been doing this whole gen (and they didnt do that for many years on the PS3 either to be fair)...whether winning or losing, Sony have not been giving monthly numbers, so dont know why you think they have been. They only report on the big numbers, not the monthly numbers unless there is something significant, in this case "Best BF ever".

Your statements are full of what if's the only thing that matters is good sales numbers and good software numbers, I think we can assume that they've done well in November, and they had a lull the previous few months. Software releases this year havent been as strong as last year, but a small descrease in % will not be of concern to them, the console is doing better than their quite aggressive forecasts.

There are lots of people wanting PS to show their numbers with the "BBF EVER" statement. It doesn't mean they will though. PS can do whatever they want.

The 50mil number is not all that matters. Adding software to that helps yes, but whats happenening with the competition matters a whole lot as well. A great example is when PS2 was selling like hot cakes, and Xbox was selling just ok. What ended up happening because PS didn't pay attention to what was happening at MS? The 360 launches a year before PS3 and steals tonnes of business from PS. The hardware, the games, the price, the launch, the "proor" Xbox sales, all contributed to this, and PS had put themselves in a horrible position.

If PS lets this happen again, they could very well suffer with Pro and PS5, if Scorpio turns out to be next gen. Again, this doesn't matter much as to PS4 sales, but the future of the brand most definitely, its all interlocked.

The Xbox 360 had  half of the price, launched early and re-sold  more than half of what it sold in the first year to the same owners, that due to the Red Ring.

Microsoft got a 20+ millions of lead in the USA, that won't happen again. In the last 2007 November NPD thread, the Xbox 360 easily outsold the PS3 in November, but lost to the PS2, if I remember well.

The PS2 sold almost more than the Xbox 360 even after the 360's launch. So, Sony's fanbase  splitted in 2 platforms.



Congrats. December will be far more intense for sure.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Swordmasterman said:
EricHiggin said:

This isn't much of a concern for PS4, correct. PS4 has this gen locked up, unless Scorpio fits in this gen as well, and MS starts offering deals like we've never seen before, which is highly unlikely.

The concern is what if Xbox is gaining traction, and what if Scorpio is next gen?

There are lots of people wanting PS to show their numbers with the "BBF EVER" statement. It doesn't mean they will though. PS can do whatever they want.

The 50mil number is not all that matters. Adding software to that helps yes, but whats happenening with the competition matters a whole lot as well. A great example is when PS2 was selling like hot cakes, and Xbox was selling just ok. What ended up happening because PS didn't pay attention to what was happening at MS? The 360 launches a year before PS3 and steals tonnes of business from PS. The hardware, the games, the price, the launch, the "proor" Xbox sales, all contributed to this, and PS had put themselves in a horrible position.

If PS lets this happen again, they could very well suffer with Pro and PS5, if Scorpio turns out to be next gen. Again, this doesn't matter much as to PS4 sales, but the future of the brand most definitely, its all interlocked.

The Xbox 360 had  half of the price, launched early and re-sold  more than half of what it sold in the first year to the same owners, that due to the Red Ring.

Microsoft got a 20+ millions of lead in the USA, that won't happen again. In the last 2007 November NPD thread, the Xbox 360 easily outsold the PS3 in November, but lost to the PS2, if I remember well.

The PS2 sold almost more than the Xbox 360 even after the 360's launch. So, Sony's fanbase  splitted in 2 platforms.

Yes, but look at how PS3/360 gen ended. Basically 85mil even steven. How many gamers stayed on PS2 and didn't get a PS3? How many PS2 gamers eventually went to 360? It's not just about this year and next, it the entire upcoming gen and where it may be headed.



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EricHiggin said:
Swordmasterman said:

The Xbox 360 had  half of the price, launched early and re-sold  more than half of what it sold in the first year to the same owners, that due to the Red Ring.

Microsoft got a 20+ millions of lead in the USA, that won't happen again. In the last 2007 November NPD thread, the Xbox 360 easily outsold the PS3 in November, but lost to the PS2, if I remember well.

The PS2 sold almost more than the Xbox 360 even after the 360's launch. So, Sony's fanbase  splitted in 2 platforms.

Yes, but look at how PS3/360 gen ended. Basically 85mil even steven. How many gamers stayed on PS2 and didn't get a PS3? How many PS2 gamers eventually went to 360? It's not just about this year and next, it the entire upcoming gen and where it may be headed.

I don't even know how something that is down YOY even with a new hardware release is considered "in momentum". The Xbox isn't strong worldwide, but it is in the UK and USA. Microsoft's only hope is to  release the Scorpio and make a good installbase so it isn't forgotten when the PS5 comes out.



EricHiggin said:

 

Whats being said is just the possible reasoning behind PS not showing their numbers. There are legit reasons why they might not want to show them like how PS knows they've won this gen so they dont care, but its just as possible that PS is "losing ground" and wants to keep that hush hush. No business in their right mind goes out and tells people we're losing and hopes to keep the momentum going, especially with the launch of an updated product to the line up. This is why after years of PS boasting about their sales, it seems odd why they all of the sudden changed their tone.

If PS only won because of their Pro sales, its concerning to a degree. Yes they have Pro, yes they have a 6 month head start on Switch and around 1 year on Scorpio, but that just makes you wonder how much more ground can MS make up when Scorpio shows up to this gen. Even more concerning would be what if Scorpio shows up and its actually next gen, what then?

How Pro sales were divided up between existing PS4 users and new buyers also would help answer some questions, but 2017 sales should tell us that. If sales stay strong for Pro, no worries, if they slowly dwindle, its most likely because PS4 users were just upgrading.

Its all a bunch of what if's, and nobody knows for sure, but thats the conversation at hand. At the end of the day, PS won, which is great, and was likely, so congrats to them.

The issue with that is, all of this 8th gen Sony has never shown their numbers. Not once. So I have no idea where the years of PS boasting about sales is coming from. Right now that just sounds more like you are flat out lying. 

They only commemt on NPD results. This year their comment was best BF I'm the history of PlayStation. Last year it was PS4 was the number one console bla bla bla. They never give actual numbers. 

Sony only releases two sets of numbers. Shipment numbers in their fiscal reports and sell through numbers in their "milestone" reports. And those are alwsys global numbers. 

And I don't understand how Pro to slim split matters at all. The slim should and will always sell way better than the pro. For one simple reason. it's cheaper. It's no indication of if people are upgrading or not. There will always be fewer people willing to spend more for a console when they can get pretty much the same thing for less. Unless the people in question has a 4k TV. 

There is nothing strange here. or odd, except for the amount of spin we are seeing. 



What's lookin good for sony is if you look at the newest global software sales a lot of the multiplatform games are selling more then double on ps4. High attach rates



X1Gates said:
Lauster said:

Correct, gap could be bigger

or a lot smaller

 

SWORDF1SH said:

Yeah, we need numbers.

Anyway, what do you think to the Xbox One being down year on year? I'm just wondering because I see one or two claim the Xbox One is now a more desirable product and the UHD player would give it more value and increase sales. What we got is Xbox One selling less than last, lost the entire month to Sony any was outsold by Sony on Black Friday, a part of the month where PS4 Pro had little impact on sales with all the deals being slapped on the PS4 Slim. 

Both Slims had pretty much the same deals but the PS4 Slim came out on top. The PS4 Slim a lot proclaimed to be a failure but still outsold the console making a 'comeback'.

I know it's hard to answer and make Xbox look amazing at the same time but give it a try :D 



SWORDF1SH said:
jason1637 said:

I bet most of the 300k were upgraders.

Shu made a comment on this. He said they expected a lot of upgraders but he was surprised by how many Pros sold to first time buyers. So I don't think most were upgraders.

Gamestop said 40% of Xbox One S was sold through trade in. Since the pro is a bigger upgradr from PS4 in comparison  to XB1 yo XB1S i expect the majority to be from Pro.