It's 8 year old x86 mobile tech with DDR3. Consoles this gen cost nothing to produce next to the custom ASICs of the past generations like Cell.

Nope, 2019 at the earliest.

Prepare to be shocked.

By holiday 2018 they can probably get the price down to $250 and the momentum it has right now I think 50 - 60 million units sold is feasible.

Xbox is still very relevant, still makes money, still helps MS push other products.

I agree that the XOne isn't doing as well as its current sales comparisons with X360 may indicate.  That said, I also don't believe that Microsoft is going to be in a rush to replace the XOne (if at all).

The X360 (like the PS3) was initially heavily eclipsed by the success of the Wii.  The SD world was still very much alive in the years 2005-2008 and so the HD consoles of last gen were especially back-loaded when it came to sales (they were deliberately built to be ahead of their time).  Selling on par for the first 3 years of the X360's life does not necessarily mean that the XOne will be able to ascend in sales the way the 360 did in 2009 and onward.  In fact, in my opinion, the XOne has already thrown a lot of its best punches with aggressive price-cuts and two major Halo releases.  To make matters even more challenging, the NX is most likely coming out this year and if rumors are correct the home console component will likely run on par with the PS4.  As a result, starting this Christmas season, Microsoft may have the weakest of the three consoles and this is a position that they have never been in before.  I'm not saying that the XOne will end up being a failture, but I don't think that it's going to sell anywhere near that of  the 360 and I even think that the 50 million milestone is going to be challenging for it at this point.

That said, I do not believe that Microsoft will rush another console out.  Unlike Nintendo, Microsoft doesn't rely on gaming for its survival and even their gaming division doesn't rely on console gaming exclusively.  There are increasingly other options becoming available and I think Microsoft is going to be heavily tempted to move away from the traditional dedicated home console market after XOne.  Year after year, Sony is doing the exact the same thing as Microsoft but with far more success and if Nintendo comes back with a vengeance and starts to crowd the market even a bit more with the NX then I think Microsoft is the company that is most likely to duck out.  Yes, Microsoft has the resources to fight the console wars with the other two companies but they also have the least skin in this battle.  If they see opportunities with an online service as their next platform, I think they will be very likely to take it.

Doubtful. If anything, if they keep failing, their gaming division will tank.

The PC is the alternative. Microsoft is trying to drive us closer to digital. With Sony and Nintendo in the picture and Microsoft having hopes of dominating the console space, full digital will not become a possibility. For now them using the PC with cross play is an alternative revenue stream since the mass of the gamers jumped ship back to Sony. They are working to kill two birds with one stone. 

1. Kill the gap with the PC realm and their exclusive network. Melding the two with their second wave games.

2. Obtain profit where the console realm will not attain maxmum profit capacity.

All the while...keeping in mind that they need to keep their pillar games exclusive from even the PC to keep the Xbox One as sought after as possible. 

P.S.

As long as PC has steam they dont need Xbox Live on WIndows 10. It is a pale picture in comparison. Think of Windows 10 as Microsoft's contribution to PC where they were absent last gen.

I just think the writting's on the wall. Microsoft is really tipping their hand imo. 

The console can be profitable with the Software sales, but of course they are losing a lot of money with hardware, the Xbox One, isn't cheaper to produce like the Playstation 4, because Playstation 4, have mass production, on the Q3 of 2015, Playstation 4, shipped 3 Millions units, while Xbox One, 800-900 Thousands of units, with more shipments is cheaper to produce.

And they are giving the console for 300US$, and some with Gift Card, so is 250-270US$ some consoles.

Way too soon :O

No, I think some people just assume the worst.

If X1 was selling as poorly as Wii U or Vita, I'd understand your reasoning.