padib said:
potato_hamster said:
Yeah, you can't just shift the burden of proof like that. You're the one making claims that the market has stagnated.
I have made no claim that the market has grown. None. I'm simply mentioning that there are numerous factors that could have caused the market to grow, or that the market could be bigger than the sales of last generation indicatie. Just like your claims that the market size has stagnated, you have absolutely zero evidence to refute the possibility that the market could have grown. You are assuming it hasn't, so if you're going to claim tha the market has stagnated, then the burden is on you to support that claim. Again, it is your job to provide evidence that "No, the introduction of consoles into China and other developing markets has not increased the market", because these things have happened, and objectively there are more markets to purchase a PS4 in than there were to purchase a PS3 in. So please go ahead, prove that this is not a factor.
Again, I never said I expected both the PS4 and the X1 to sell at a rate of 1.5x higher than the PS3 and X360 over the next few years - but let's employ your train of thought. You want evidence to support that? Just use the evidence you have that the market has not grown (none). If we can assume that the market has not grown because we don't have any hard numbers to say it definitely has, then we can assume that the sales of the PS4 and X1 will not drop off because we don't have any hard numbers to derfinitely say it will. By your own logic, you should be the one expecting the X1 and PS4 to sell at a rate 1.5 higher than last generation, not me.
But again, I'm not making this claim, I'm just using your reasoning against you.
|
Stagnated is an immense word. Last gen's sales were record-breaking from all points. If the sales stay at the levels of last gen, that would not be stagnating at all. I understand it's a term, but it's not the correct one. If the sales stay the same, that will be, to me, quite unexpected.
The proof that the burden was on you is the fact that you started with the China argument among others, and now I must retort. Because otherwise there is no reason to expect things to change.
About China, I'm not convinced that the people there have taken an interest in games. I am by no means an insider, but I have spoken with a native from there about it and there seems to be little interest in consoles there. Perhaps they are content with more F2P type games. Either way, so far RoW (which includes China and the other countries you mention) represents 1/7th of the global numbers for PS4. This is the same ratio as it was for the PS2. There is little to tell me that this number will suddenly inflate or change rates in the next few years, as the ban was lifted in 2013. Lastly, the PS4's weakest market is by far japan (by virtue of the tastes and games being released on PS4 being more western-centric). For that reason I see little reason why if japan shows little interest why other asian countries should. Sure it's another country, but their tastes are certainly closer than they are to ours.
As for the 2nd paragraph, that is not my logic, you must have misunderstood or I was unclear. I believe that the total sales of this gen will not exceed the total sales of last gen, because I believe last gen sales (PS3+360) were records and unusually high. Hence, if the total sales when the gen is over should not exceed 170m, then the rate at which games are being sold now is much bigger than the expected rate to fulfill the same number by the end of 10 years (34m in 2 years). If it is to happen in 6 years (the number you mentioned earlier), then so much more reason to expect the rate to be abnormally high at the moment.
|