By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Ethomaz's Japan Sales Trending Prediction For 2015 (373,286 For PS4 1.5m)

ethomaz on 30 June 2015

Ryng_Tolu said:

I believe it will sell:

Week 49: 30.000
Week 50: 40.000
Week 51: 50.000
Week 52: 60.000

 

So, i think we will see 180k in 2015 compared to the 150k of 2014... so, better than last year, but not by 50%, more like 20% or so...

Just a question... are you predicting these numbers with price cut or without it? I believe Sony will drop the price this year.



Around the Network
Sharu on 30 June 2015
Aerys said:

PS4 will outsell WiiU early in 2016 since FF XV is planned for a release before april and FFXV marketing will help it a lot during décember so it should well 200k

Any proof that FFXV will launch 1 quarter of 2016?



outlawauron on 30 June 2015

I can see how you arrived at the 1.5 million prediction, but there definitely has to be some new things coming after MGS5 to keep up the positive YoY momentum. I think with the expected price cut this fall + whatever surprises are there will be the only way that can happen.

As for the Wii U, you don't think the baseline has been permanently moved? I know there's nothing of consequence outside of Mario Maker for the rest of the year, but that could be another surprise hit if Nintendo spends the kind of money they did with Splatoon.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

Aerys on 30 June 2015
Sharu said:
Aerys said:

PS4 will outsell WiiU early in 2016 since FF XV is planned for a release before april and FFXV marketing will help it a lot during décember so it should well 200k

Any proof that FFXV will launch 1 quarter of 2016?

Thé game is in Square Enix planning for 2015 fiscal year



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Sharu on 30 June 2015
Aerys said:
Sharu said:

Any proof that FFXV will launch 1 quarter of 2016?

Thé game is in Square Enix planning for 2015 fiscal year

Ok, at last! (Still don't believe it will come that early). ))



Around the Network
Ryng on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

Ryng_Tolu said:

I believe it will sell:

Week 49: 30.000
Week 50: 40.000
Week 51: 50.000
Week 52: 60.000

 

So, i think we will see 180k in 2015 compared to the 150k of 2014... so, better than last year, but not by 50%, more like 20% or so...

Just a question... are you predicting these numbers with price cut or without it? I believe Sony will drop the price this year.

I believe in a pricedrop in September with metal Gear, and i expect PS4 to sell in September nearly equal to December... around 70k the week of Metal Gear+pricedrop, after that PS4 will dropped at 30k the second week of September, and by October PS4 will be above 15k but under 20k (maybe above those numbers with a game release)... November in Japan is not big like in Europe ( for not even talk about US ) , it will be at +20k in November for all week i think, so, between 80k and 100k in November.

That's should mean:

Sep: 150k - 180k

Oct: 60k - 80k

Nov: 80k - 100k

Dec: 170k - 200k

 

The PS4 is currently at some like 550k for this year, agreed? with 10k basis and the boost it should be at 700k-750k by end of Agust, so, 700k/750k + 460k/560k = 1.16m / 1.31m

 

I have PS4 at 1.25 million this year... 1.5 million is possible as well if will have a strong December, just i don't think will happen.



ethomaz on 30 June 2015
outlawauron said:
I can see how you arrived at the 1.5 million prediction, but there definitely has to be some new things coming after MGS5 to keep up the positive YoY momentum. I think with the expected price cut this fall + whatever surprises are there will be the only way that can happen.

As for the Wii U, you don't think the baseline has been permanently moved? I know there's nothing of consequence outside of Mario Maker for the rest of the year, but that could be another surprise hit if Nintendo spends the kind of money they did with Splatoon.

I'm putting Wii U 20% ahead last year... that is really a big boost.



Sharu on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:

Some considerations...

- I started the graph after the Week 8 because the launch breaks it with 309k making almost impossible to see the difference between lower weeks (the pourpose of this graph).
- I matained the Week 9 even so it is the second week of launch.

PS4 is tracking way better than last year in a weekly basis... and this year we have big titles in the second semester than last year... it will easily out do the 2014 number.

But how much?

I believe it will be ~1.5m but some guys can thing 1.2m or something between but it is hard (almost impossible) PS4 do less than last year.

And you guys are missing another big point here: PRICE CUT!!!

So first 8 weeks in 2014 PS4 sold 309k
And 8 weeks in 2015 how much was that?



outlawauron on 30 June 2015
ethomaz said:
outlawauron said:
I can see how you arrived at the 1.5 million prediction, but there definitely has to be some new things coming after MGS5 to keep up the positive YoY momentum. I think with the expected price cut this fall + whatever surprises are there will be the only way that can happen.

As for the Wii U, you don't think the baseline has been permanently moved? I know there's nothing of consequence outside of Mario Maker for the rest of the year, but that could be another surprise hit if Nintendo spends the kind of money they did with Splatoon.

I'm putting Wii U 20% ahead last year... that is really a big boost.

I'm just expecting Nintendo to throw up another price cut/new bundle at lower price for the Fall/Holiday. To keep some of the momentum they have going.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

ethomaz on 30 June 2015

Sharu said:

So first 8 weeks in 2014 PS4 sold 309k
And 8 weeks in 2015 how much was that?

No. One week in 2014 PS4 did 309k (launch week)... it was released in Feb 2014 in Japan... it breaks my graph because 309k makes the others week numbers really small in the graph that why I started at Week 9 (the second week of PS4 in Japan).

These are the numbers for PS4 excluding the launch period.

2014: 202.427
2015: 313.887