1) Price. PS4 will be substantially more price competitive through the year, and more importantly during the holidays. Even is xb one manages to win Nov and Dec the margin will be relatively small.
2) games. We all know multiplats are better on PS4 95% of the time. But we also know that the exclusive offerings from PS4 in 2015 has broad appeal. As usual MS will be putting all its eggs in the Halo basket. But really how many people will be swayed by this? It is a franchise who's popularity peaked on 360. It will still sell millions but principally to the xbox core. It won't really sell beyond that. Rise of the tomb raider you say? I say a lot of people are going to wait and see what 2016 brings once the time limit on the exclusivity wears off. I don't see RTR convincing many people who lean towards PS or PC to get a xb one for this timed exclusive.
3) financial position. Mobile is the monkey on Sony's otherwise profitable back. By all accounts that monkey will be gone, or greatly diminished by the end of Q1 2015. This means Sony will be in a better position to put money into shifting PS4s and not just by making price adjustments.
4) non game services. Xb one may continue to have the edge in entertainment and other non game services. But Sony is not sitting still here, they will bring more to the table here too. While this isn't a direct selling point for either console, for people on the fence it can be one of the deciding factor especially if a non-gamer is part of the decision making process.
5) despite what MS managed to do this year for Nov and Dec, I don't see MS being able to repeat this to the same effect. Once Sony drops PS4 price that squeezes what MS can do. And Sony being in a better financial position going into holiday 2015 means they can do holiday specials at least equal in value to xb one.
6) the casual market is diminished. But they will go where the casual games are and Sony has that covered.
So, I think 2015 is looking to be completely dominated by PS4 in all markets, and while things will be closer in the USA PS4 will extend its lead there too.
I won't necrosis this thread when the inevitable happens and I am shown to be right. But others arwelcome to so we can all celebrate my brilliance.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix