PC has been with us since the beginning of times, Steam of cause rejuvenated PC gaming and is an ever expanding service. But it already started being big this generation, it was not an obstacle to have the biggest generation in history, a least keep the status quo of core gaming consoles sold, in line with 6th gen (that's of course a very rough estimation)

How I feel about it, is PC gaming and console gaming always lived alongside each other and I don't see it changing drastically at all. Sure there are probabl, objectively less reasons to own a console over a PC than ever with less and less console exclusives and Steam. But for a shitton of people PC gaming is just not an option, with simple, streamlined, more socially connected and oriented consoles as more appealing, and I don't see Steamboxes changing that at all. I actually fail to see a clear target for the Steamboxes and in that see their niche character.

Wii Party, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, DKC Returns, New Super Mario Bros Wii have already sequels on the Wii U, and they bombed. MK8's fate might be better but I doubt it's gonna move a lot of consoles.

This.

If Sony can nail PS Now and Cloud TV they should have major steam going into the holiday. If the head mounted display is real, and anything like the media has been clamoring on about, it could be the next Motion like fad. Add some major Killer apps that will be shown/announced at E3/Gamescom/TGS, and PS4 momentum should only grow.

I think 20M LTD end of the year is a lock. Most likely 70%+ market share 2014, and over 50% LTD.

Nothing "dangerous" about that.

Owww ok... well maybe a misunderstanding of my part or a bad phrasing you used (my english is not that good to understand somethings)... but I can understand the burden ethomaz, myself, some others heated users and some of the bickering can give to the mods, sometimes tacking out the fun and enjoyment you guys have at this "work". And since it isn't paid it make no sense to keep doing it while not liking it any. I just asked because recently it seems that a lot of users are blaming him for a lot of things, like the site is in bad shape, he is the greatest fanboy and worst offender of all time, everybody is leaving because of him, etc. Sometimes he behave in a wrong way, but I don't think it's enough to make people leave (I would at most ignore him). I actually see a lot of gang up and personnal attack against him go unpunished (maybe because it's in so much threads, because we have little mod count or maybe because some mods may have something against him, etc, I don't know) in the site. During the PS4/Xbone reveal up to the launch it was more common people bashing him than bashing any console (he painted a target in himself by entering all the Xbone fantasy rumours - like misterxmedia and other secret sauce threads - and talking about how wrong people were there and heating the discussion) but his posture wasn't bitter or trollish (maybe just a little "know better than anyone")  and didn't deserved all the shit he received.

Some people negating the possibilitie of PS4 dominance use arguments imagining that Sony won't release in more countries, won't ever drop the price (even using sony is bankrupt as excuse, and forgeting sony cuted the price while losing 200 per console in the launch and already in the red) and won't have nice exclusives. Of course WiiU and Xbone have a chance of enhancing their sales more than the PS4 because an increase from 35 or 50k is a lot easier than from 130k and a console to have 70% of marketshare must have more than 2.5 to 1 against all the competition, and when you have two of them things become difficult. Every jump in % of marketshare becomes more difficult.
33% is 1 -2 50% is 1-1 (an increase of 17 percentual poinst - 51% increase - needed double the sales relative to competition) 66% is 2-1 (16 pp -32% increase - for another double) then shit happens 80% is 4-1 (14pp - 21% increase - for another double).

Considering PS4 1M per month production giving 250k per week as maximum attainable average during the year for the first year (and something proportional for the rest of the years) let's put some numbers to show it.

For 33% marketshare weekly sale is 250k for PS4 and 500k for WiiU/Xbone - total 750k for all consoles.

For 50% share sale is 250k to 250k - total 500k (33% drop in total).

For 66% share sale is 250k to 125k - total 375k (25% drop)

For 80% share sale is 250k to 62,5k - total 312,5k (16,6% drop) - and around 30-33k for each competitor, what isn't very much probable of course.

Talking about Yearly sales for 70% dominance (will count from this january launch for both consoles to december end). PS4 1st Year 13M - agaisnt 5,57M for the competition what would be abysmal considering that it would be an average 23,2k for each competiting console (and we know both would sell at least 1M each around holidays, making sales in the other months to low). If we talk LTD for 1st January 2015 that people expect 20M PS4 (16M during 2014) for 70% competition would be LTD 8,57M considering current sales of WiiU/Xbone already 5,7+3,5 is 9,2M it will be impossible this year.

The most I can see for this year is 50% marketshare entering November. Sales before the begging of next gen starts would be like 100M PS4 50M Xbone and 30M WiiU for me (that is 55%, 27,7% and 16,67%). For a 70% dominance we would need PS2 legs (selling well for at least 3 years more than the competion, what will be hard considering PS2 had launched 1 year earlier than the competition, and this time it launched 1 year after one and together with the other... plus stayed on the market without it sucessor for another year more than the competition, while outselling it sucessor for 1 year... so yeah it had 3 years more of strong sales, besides the moderate and weak numbers on the tail end of the gen, 100M during it gen and another 60M after). So even if PS4 had the strong sells of PS2 for the whole gen and ended with 160M when discontinued I would put Xbone at 60M and WiiU at 35M for their discontinued sales which would make a 255M gen (almost the same as gen 7) with Marketshare of 62,75% 23,53% and 13,72%.

Which of course shows that for a 70% dominance PS4 doesn't need to only sell pretty well but the competition to blunder completly... so I would preffer a 50-60% dominance for PS4 than 70+% because that would probably mean no competion (which is bad), while dominance would be good (but keep the memory of what happens when a dominant console forgets it must keep it game up to keep dominance).

Microsoft is already making profit at $499, they can compete easily with PS4 dropping Kinect, and still make profit. Although I still think Sony would win by a huge margen no matter what, the Playstation brand is a lot more stronger.

Dangerous? What are you talking about? You know you want this.

Anything over 50% at the end will be a massive achievement for Sony, and will ensure PS4 support for almost all big games, making it difficult for 3rd parties to justify X1 exclusivity (like Titanfall, something you would doubt would have happened if EA felt PS4 would take such big lead). 70% however, as of now, seems implausible.

While its rather clear PS4 will "win" the sales, X1 shouldn't be counted out so soon. As MS has demonstrated by their "180s", they are very receptive to market changes and reactions, which is a good thing and will help X1 sales.