when? | |||
| 2015 | 78 | 16.53% | |
| 2016 | 80 | 16.95% | |
| 2017 | 56 | 11.86% | |
| 2018 | 34 | 7.20% | |
| nevurr | 224 | 47.46% | |
| Total: | 472 | ||
Does it even have a chance? I don't know if I would like to whip out my crystal ball in fear of this thread being bumped in 2-4 years and me being wrong. I'll stay on the safe side and say that it's "Unpredictable!" (Weak, I know.)
| NintendoPie said: Does it even have a chance? I don't know if I would like to whip out my crystal ball in fear of this thread being bumped in 2-4 years and me being wrong. I'll stay on the safe side and say that it's "Unpredictable!" (Weak, I know.) |
You just sit right there on that fence. Must be comfortable.
| Conegamer said: You just sit right there on that fence. Must be comfortable. |
I actually already chose a side. You just don't know which one.
dsage01 said:
|
I doubt that either this late into the gen will have much of an impact on hardware. A drop in price and heavy marketing in developing markets will keep them stable in 2014.
With the PS4 coming out, there won't be much reason to buy another PS3, especially with how cheaply the new PS3 Slims are. It'll probably never happen unless Sony leaves the PS3 out there for another 7-8yrs. It's all irrelevant at this point anyways since the Next-Gen has already started. A new race has already begun.
__________________________________________
'gaming till I'm gone'
| ironmanDX said: What lolz? The ps3 will be lucky to hit 100 million. How could they be right when the numbers show it hasn't even passed the 360 yet and they already speak of passing the Wii? They're excited, I understand that because they have reason too but at least get within 10 million of the Wii.... Especially when this gen will soon be over. I'll re-post this table, again. Okay Bahgdad Bob. ;) The inevitability of the PS3 passing the 360 is a given unless the world ends in the next couple of weeks. I don't really understand what you don't understand about the Wii being completely dead in the water and the PS3 still not at a mass market price (Particularly in developing markets) with a competitive online setup the Xbox 360 (At no charge). It's a dream for developing countries. A dream. The PS4 not having Backwards compatiblity only makes it more attractive to own. It took PS3 an entire generation to potentially pass X360. - The PS3 has outsold the 360 every year since what 2009? - It is, what it is. A close console race and one had a year head start. The PS3 has been outselling the 360 for awhile now - Every system is seeing major declines in sales this late in the generation (Especially at their current prices on the eve of new consoles). - The PS3 being costly or profitable to Sony has no personal bearing on me or anyone who doesn't own stock in the company (Irrelevant). - Why will the PS3 be retired in 2016 at the latest? (Maybe 2015?). Firstly, no evidence supports that. The PS1 was on the market for 11+ years, the PS2 almost 13. Even if the PS3 was the SHORTEST of the three consoles it probably would last until 2017. (Remember, it essentially released in 2007.) However, your previous reasoning actually makes it incredibly likely that the PS3 gets produced as long as it's still selling (This is when the console becomes the MOST profitable for these companies). See chart... I'm also being very generous with the time after PS4 launches. Your chart has no importance to anyone here. Why would I trust your estimates over historical evidence that suggests the PS3 could potentially sell (a lot more) consoles after it reaches more realistic obtainable prices worldwide. What needs to be kept in mind is how much developing markets could potentially gobble up a feature packed system like the PS3 for a song and a dance, with a robust (free) online network? Lastly, the PS3 stands a chance even in existing markets due to the PS4's lack of backwards compatibility (Don't for a second think that isn't part of the overall strategy, either). They're going to force you if you have any interest in PS3 games, to go purchase a cheap PS3) |
| pezus said: Judge for yourself: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5346453 Tell me what you think what won't happen there. 10 year plan, baby |
I refuse to look at an outstanding information. I'll come up with my prediction in 2016... 
Hmm idk. If it continues to sell like this then maybe 2016? Otherwise if sales drop, which I think they will after 2014, then it will never surpass it, which is fine by me because the Ps3 was pretty successful this gen.
pezus said:
FIFA, Gran Turismo, CoD and other reasons |
Those aren't as big in developing markets. No good online means online multiplayer is useless. They sell about 1-2 million in the rest of the world.
And 2 of those are multiplatform. It's not like PS2 which had exclusive after exclusive to sell the console, 360 has all the games as PS3 now as well. And 360 being cheaper. There's a lot more competition.
What people keep seemingly forgetting is that while the Xbox and GC weren't supported very well late in the lifecycle, the PS3 has competition by 360 whith will get the multiplats.
The marginal utility isn't there in the developing markets, especially when they don't have all the stuff to completely benefit from PS3. Who can use multimedia there?
The exception this rule is China. They already have everything set to maximize the utility of an HD console, just laws prevent them from being sold. Which is why I keep saying it depends on when and if China decides to start allowing consoles to be sold there in the future. And even then, it would have to be before the PS4 and 720 really catch on so late 2014 or bust.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/92109/nintendopie/ Nintendopie Was obviously right and I was obviously wrong. I will forever be a lesser being than them. (6/16/13)
| Jay520 said: I say it will not happen: I would love to see the yearly sales prediction for anyone who thinks the PS3 will eventually catch it. Anyone up to the challenge? |
The gap will only decrease by 8million next financial year.
FY13 PS3 predicted 10million shipped. (From Sony) 87million
Wii Predicted 2million shipped. (From Nintendo) 100.4million
FY14 PS3 8million 95million
Wii 1million 101.4million
FY15 PS3 5.5million 100.5million
Wii 101.4million
FY16 PS3 4million 104.5million
Wii 101.4million
So between March 31st 2016 and March 31st 2017, so I predict.
PS3 will Outship Wii on 31st June 2016.
PSP Lifetime more than PSV+3DS Lifetime.
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