key part is underlined.  uncharted 2 had a 3M some userbase who had already played the first one when uncharted 2 released.  the last of us won't and i don't think outside of us forum dwellers that many people actually notice the name of the studio who develops the games they play.  ND on the box won't hurt but i don't think it will guarantee all 5ish M uncharted players are even aware of TLoU.

I was thinking 5 mil.

If it isn't heavily bundled, less than 2.5 million lifetime ...

(Pretty much) all of Sony's new IPs this generation have sold moderately well but needed bundles to sell multiple millions of copies.

We're believing preorders now? 

I am going with 3 million LTD but it could do better or worse by 500K. Good to be conservative. Exited to see what they have for multiplayer.

lol... even if it's 25k off it looks like it's gonna get to at least 300k in merica alone

6 Mill aiming at the high end, I think we could see a massive role on affect if the game live up to the hype or even near. 4 million for the first year sales.

Trust me if it get a 90+ metacritic score half of the Uncharted userbase would buy it not counting the survival horror fans.

Like 3.5-4 million if it's not heavily bundled later on.

The biggest PS3 exclusive of 2013 is NOT The Last of Us by a long shot. 

God of War III which wasn't mass bundled is still much more popular than all of the Uncharted games that depend on mass bundling for sales, The Last of Us won't be bundled as much as Uncharted so it won't 'sell' nearly as well.

The Last of Us will sell = 650K first week and 3.75 million lifetime. If it is bundled Uncharted style then 4.5 million lifetime. 

Moderated,

-Mr Khan