Great thread, Mnementh.

Wii U vs PS2/XBOX/GC/Wii???

Edit - The graphs not showed the first time I enter in this thread... now I see... Wii U vs this gen.

Great thread!

Based on some comments I've read in recent Global Update threads, I thought the Wii U was doing horribly.

Apparently that's not the case.

Great thread, something I'll keep checking. It's obvious Wii U is going to be below Wii's pace for the first two years, but I'm really interested to see how it compares to Wii's third and fourth years, to see if Nintendo can get a steadier, more long-term curve out of this machine.

It's also great to see comparisons to the PS3/360 launches. I fully expect Wii U to be over 10 million by 50 weeks and over 20 million by 100 weeks.

I've been thinking along these lines as well! Perhaps it won't have the same strong first years, but maybe - just maybe, it'll have stronger legs and could manage 100m...

I don't think it'll do much better in the later years when PS4/720 become more affordable. 

Nintendo needs to create a new franchise to really drive hardware sales, Mario can't be relied upon to do everything. 

I think a huge majority of the casuals who embraced the Wii will abandon Nintendo this time out. You'll have the same core Nintendo fans stick around, but the casuals will mostly go elsewhere, with the PS3/360 hardcore transitioning up to the PS4/720 as the years roll on. 

I agree with all 3 of your points, but we haven't seen anything of what PS720 is capable of yet (as a matter of fact, we haven't seen what Wii U can do yet...) so it's really hard to tell right now. And as we've seen time and time again it's not power that wins a generation...

A new Nintendo IP would be great, but nothing sells like Mario (well, CoD and GTA does ^^). I think it's mostly the minority of hardcore gamers that are sick and tired of Mario; he's still selling gangbusters!

There is casuals and then there is casual gamers. It's the casual gamers that move the biggest amount of HW. Just take a look at PS1/PS2 - that wasn't all core gamers who bought those systems. If Nintendo can capture some of those casual gamers (not casuals as in soccer moms) they'll be alright.

Extrapolating the chart as predicted by many VGCers' expection.

@Galaki

No no you have it all wrong, this is the real graph

This gen is WiiU, PS4 and 720.