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Prediction: Halo 4 will sell 7,793,000+ in 2012

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Nsanity said:
Slimebeast said:
Nsanity said:
Slimebeast said:
I've said numerous times that Halo is on a decline. I predicted a 91% Meta. I've said the competition from COD is too fierce.

And I've said that Halo 4 has no chance to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. I stand by that.

Im still waiting for those names of people that cancelled Halo 4.

I don't know their names, I just know they exist.

People are not going to let some troll reviewers sway them from buying Halo 4.

I know they shouldn't, and I think that's what they try to tell themselves too.

But we all know how marketing and perception is important. And it even affects us hardcore gamers.

It was not a disaster but still, quite a few people got disappointed by the reviews and at least some of them must have altered their plans.

The bad reviews sent a message of doubt. Some people will go "what if", "what if this game ain't the masterpiece I thought it was".

It made the same to me. If ACIII hadn't got 85% but instead had got those 90% that ACII got (in combination with the negative early impressions here on vgc), I wouldn't have lost the extreme hype mode I was in for a little while.



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man-bear-pig said:
think-man said:
man-bear-pig said:
think-man said:
Im thinking around 6.5 million, I have no stats to back it up but looking at past halos 6.5 million for 9 weeks of sale is amazing and would still be higher than reach. Plus there are alot of halos already on the 360 so even 6.5 in 9 weeks is being generous.


Past Halos were all released in September, so you can't really compare them to Halo 4. November is a completely different sales climate

Thats true but It doesn't play in its favor with COD releasing around the same time.


Battlefield 3 was released around the same time as CoD too and look how well it's done. Anyway, I think people who get CoD on the 360 will also be interested in getting Halo 4 around Christmas time. Besides, this is the first CoD that will sell considerably less than its predecessor.

I can't see people buying two shooters before xmas, there either gunna pick one or the other which going by sales if people were gunna pick between the two they'd pick COD unless they're mad halo fans, COD will devour Halo once its released.....I think lol don't quote me later if im wrong haha



Slimebeast said:
Nsanity said:
Slimebeast said:
Nsanity said:
Slimebeast said:
I've said numerous times that Halo is on a decline. I predicted a 91% Meta. I've said the competition from COD is too fierce.

And I've said that Halo 4 has no chance to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. I stand by that.

Im still waiting for those names of people that cancelled Halo 4.

I don't know their names, I just know they exist.

People are not going to let some troll reviewers sway them from buying Halo 4.

I know they shouldn't, and I think that's what they try to tell themselves too.

But we all know how marketing and perception is important. And it even affects us hardcore gamers.

It was not a disaster but still, quite a few people got disappointed by the reviews and at least some of them must have altered their plans.

The bad reviews sent a message of doubt. Some people will go "what if", "what if this game ain't the masterpiece I thought it was".

It made the same to me. If ACIII hadn't got 85% but instead had got those 90% that ACII got, I wouldn't have lost the extreme hype mode I was in for a little while.

When your on the bridge deciding wheather or not to buy a game one or two bad reviews is all it takes to sway you from buying the game. That also happened to me with AC3 I was all hype to get it from trailers and gameplay then a few bad reviews stopped me from getting it :/



man-bear-pig said:
Slimebeast said:
I've said numerous times that Halo is on a decline. I predicted a 91% Meta. I've said the competition from COD is too fierce.

And I've said that Halo 4 has no chance to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. I stand by that.


@bolded, that's proof that your predictions don't materialise.

Didn't you predict 96? That doesn't bode well for your prediction here .

Still, I think you will be closer to reality than Slimebeast. ~7m, possibly as much as 7.5m I'd say



Also, people saying they lose hype because the score goes down (which is mostly because of epic troll reviews) are cray-cray



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man-bear-pig said:
Slimebeast said:
I've said numerous times that Halo is on a decline. I predicted a 91% Meta. I've said the competition from COD is too fierce.

And I've said that Halo 4 has no chance to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. I stand by that.


@bolded, that's proof that your predictions don't materialise.

To be fair, that only because Halo 4 seems to have a couple of troll reviews on metacritic. That said, if he's basing his 'review meltdown' concept on those reviews, I'm not sure where he's getting the other stuff from. People who are dumb enough to take those reviews seriously probably weren't that interested in the game anyway. I also fail to see how a good number of 100s, 90s and 80s plus one 70, one 55 and one 20 (two questionable and one troll review) amount to a 'meltdown'.



pezus said:
man-bear-pig said:
Slimebeast said:
I've said numerous times that Halo is on a decline. I predicted a 91% Meta. I've said the competition from COD is too fierce.

And I've said that Halo 4 has no chance to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. I stand by that.


@bolded, that's proof that your predictions don't materialise.

Didn't you predict 96?


Nope, you must be confusing me with someone else. I predicted Halo 4 would get a metascore of 87.



man-bear-pig said:
Slimebeast said:
man-bear-pig said:
Slimebeast said:
man-bear-pig said:
Slimebeast said:
No chance.

6 million is possible but that's the limit.


Lol...we'll see. Why do you think Halo 4 will follow different sales trends than all other popular FPS's?

After 9 weeks Halo Reach had sold 5.7 million.

Your first week 4.4 million is totally unrealistic (Reach had 3.7 million). After the review meltdowns even people on this site have canceled their plans to buy this game early.


Reach was released in September and it isn't a mainline Halo game; Halo 4 is a mainline halo game, it has rave reviews, it's released in November(just when sales start to get huge). Also, reach's sales can't be compared to halo 4's because they're both released in totally different sales climates. To compare their first 9 weeks with eachother is ridiculous.

Anyway, the numbers in the OP aren't pulled out of thin air, they follow the % changes of other FPS's released at a similar time in previous years.

But at the time people didn't know Reach wasn't a mainline game. It was marketed as a mainline game.

Reviews are worse this time and it goes head-to-head with COD. You will not see first week go over 4 mill.


Wanna bet?


...

Your silence says it all, Slimebeast. You don't even believe what you're saying.



man-bear-pig said:
pezus said:
man-bear-pig said:
Slimebeast said:
I've said numerous times that Halo is on a decline. I predicted a 91% Meta. I've said the competition from COD is too fierce.

And I've said that Halo 4 has no chance to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. I stand by that.


@bolded, that's proof that your predictions don't materialise.

Didn't you predict 96?


Nope, you must be confusing me with someone else. I predicted Halo 4 would get a metascore of 87.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=147495&page=1#

lol Theres your 96 metacritic prediction XD

EDIT: Which I might add you're prediction was the highest on the table.



think-man said:
man-bear-pig said:
pezus said:
man-bear-pig said:
Slimebeast said:
I've said numerous times that Halo is on a decline. I predicted a 91% Meta. I've said the competition from COD is too fierce.

And I've said that Halo 4 has no chance to sell over 10 million copies lifetime. I stand by that.


@bolded, that's proof that your predictions don't materialise.

Didn't you predict 96?


Nope, you must be confusing me with someone else. I predicted Halo 4 would get a metascore of 87.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=147495&page=1#

lol Theres your 96 metacritic prediction XD


That's a typo from Boutros.