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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Wii U will sell under 40 million units

Teeqoz on 10 July 2016
Zod95 said:
Teeqoz said:

This wasn't in relation to Man-Bear-Pig's prediction, but a different user in this thread that yesterday said less than 35 million. Another user then asked him why he predicted such a high number now, when it's obvious the Wii U will come nowhere close to 35 million. He said that he "only predicted *less* than 35 million, so he would still be correct". My point was that relying on ambiguous wording and semantics only to claim your prediction is correct even when your prediction clearly is terrible is silly and removes the whole point of predicting. And I indeed think that predicting today that the Wii U will do less than 35 million is a useless prediction, even if it's "correct".

 

The same is true for my "about 0". Since you can't possibly now what I mean by "about", I could indeed say that 10 million is "about zero". After all, if you have a perspective of, let's say, a Googleplex, 10 million and 0 are in the same neighborhood of numbers, which is what "about" means in relation to number quantities. Hence why, when using imprecise words like "about", "less than" or "more than" while making predictions have to be accompanied by common sense. You can predict "Wii U will sell less than 35 million" today, like the user this discussion was about did, and the prediction is correct but the prediction is also terrible. Don't get me wrong though, at the time Man-Bear-Pig made his prediction, it was a very good prediction.

If that's the case, I agree that now his prediction of less than 35M is pretty useless, although not stupid (since it is correct and, I guess, not consensual - I bet there still are some Nintendo die hard fans expecting more than that).

"About" is indeed imprecise. But "less than" is pretty clear. Either the number is lesser or it's not. Where's the imprecision?

Yet, when you say "about 0 units" I know that 0.4 (if it could exist) would be about 0. 1.35 would already be about 1. When a game sells thousands or millions of units, there's no way it can be "about 0 units" (since your scale is in "units", not "billion units"). I think that's logical.

 

PS: Portugal is the european champion!!! I can't believe it! First title ever!!

It is indeed logical, which is why I say you need to apply common sense to scenarios like this.



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Torillian on 10 July 2016
Mummelmann said:
Zod95 said:
Of course the OP deserves kudos for such a prediction. I remember back then, and even some months/years later, anyone who called such a low figure for WiiU's lifetime sales was considered crazy. Now everyone knows 40 million is far too high, but in 2012 it was one of the lowest predictions one could find. I would say that, in 100 predictions, this would be certainly in the top 5. I think that I personally have never made such a good prediction.

There are even those who still believe in magic, lo and behold, the one and only (and relentless) who has now started gearing up for the NX and quite recently made some ridiculous statements on the Wii U;

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?334729-You-can-imagine-a-full-Animal-Crossing-WiiU-version-while-playing-Amiibo-Festival!/page3

Too bad he's not willing to have any discussions here. He'll be back for NX launch, is my guess. 240 million lifetime 4 sho.

The first reply to JohnLucas in that thread is so perfect:

"Well that was a painfully empty message written in 7000 words."



...

gooch_destroyer on 10 July 2016

Well x3



DannyDesario on 10 July 2016

Well........... lol. under 20M and Reggie said they won't heavily manufacture anymore



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Proxy-Pie on 10 July 2016

Well, almost nobody could've predicted that the WiiU would do as badly as it did. Confusing name, terrible marketing, development struggles because of HD, poor communication with customers and the fanbase, lack of third party support, scarce library, etc.

Nobody knew it was gonna be this bad in 2012...



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Mummelmann on 11 July 2016
Torillian said:
Mummelmann said:

There are even those who still believe in magic, lo and behold, the one and only (and relentless) who has now started gearing up for the NX and quite recently made some ridiculous statements on the Wii U;

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?334729-You-can-imagine-a-full-Animal-Crossing-WiiU-version-while-playing-Amiibo-Festival!/page3

Too bad he's not willing to have any discussions here. He'll be back for NX launch, is my guess. 240 million lifetime 4 sho.

The first reply to JohnLucas in that thread is so perfect:

"Well that was a painfully empty message written in 7000 words."

The best part of it all for me is how he explained his lack of time for discussing these matters in here, he clearly has plenty of time to do it elsewhere (he does it on other sites as well), it appears that it has more to do with the fact that he was wrecked by people who actually took their time to dismantle his behemoth posts in here, so he doesn't want to come back.

Like I said though; around the time the NX rolls out, he'll be back with a vengeance, but he'll refuse to own up to his spectacular failure(s), yet again. He also had those "facts vs fiction" threads, where he refused to discuss the UNITY thread, stating that "well, that thread is locked, so we can't really discuss it, now can we?", convenient!

He has to come back, we need more crazy on these forums, most of the people here today are too tame...



Alby_da_Wolf on 11 July 2016
Torillian said:
Mummelmann said:

There are even those who still believe in magic, lo and behold, the one and only (and relentless) who has now started gearing up for the NX and quite recently made some ridiculous statements on the Wii U;

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?334729-You-can-imagine-a-full-Animal-Crossing-WiiU-version-while-playing-Amiibo-Festival!/page3

Too bad he's not willing to have any discussions here. He'll be back for NX launch, is my guess. 240 million lifetime 4 sho.

The first reply to JohnLucas in that thread is so perfect:

"Well that was a painfully empty message written in 7000 words."

As long, redundand and logorrheic, more boring, but at least less condescending than the typical Malstrom rant. I guess JohnLucas was one of his fans...   



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busbfran on 11 July 2016

funniest shit i have read all day



AZWification on 11 July 2016

This thread just keeps coming back, eh?



                
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Mummelmann on 11 July 2016
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Torillian said:

The first reply to JohnLucas in that thread is so perfect:

"Well that was a painfully empty message written in 7000 words."

As long, redundand and logorrheic, more boring, but at least less condescending than the typical Malstrom rant. I guess JohnLucas was one of his fans...   

I used to think they were the same person for some time, a lot of similarities, but Malstrom actually had some insight at least, not nearly as much as some gave him credit for though.