Of course the OP deserves kudos for such a prediction. I remember back then, and even some months/years later, anyone who called such a low figure for WiiU's lifetime sales was considered crazy. Now everyone knows 40 million is far too high, but in 2012 it was one of the lowest predictions one could find. I would say that, in 100 predictions, this would be certainly in the top 5. I think that I personally have never made such a good prediction.

There are even those who still believe in magic, lo and behold, the one and only (and relentless) who has now started gearing up for the NX and quite recently made some ridiculous statements on the Wii U;

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showthread.php?334729-You-can-imagine-a-full-Animal-Crossing-WiiU-version-while-playing-Amiibo-Festival!/page3

Too bad he's not willing to have any discussions here. He'll be back for NX launch, is my guess. 240 million lifetime 4 sho.

I'm just trying to respond to those here that are saying this was not a good prediction and that predicting less than 40M back then in 2012 or predicting 80M or 200M is the same thing since now all are delusional. It's not.

Speaking about our friend JohnLucas (who you show in that link), I remember in 2013 predicting 50M-70M for WiiU to oppose the 240M JohnLucas's insane prediction. Back then, we were all inflating WiiU. However, that doesn't mean we all shared the same view. On the contrary, some of us were trying to explain (to those predicting +100M) that WiiU would not be another Wii or something even more successful. I remember being fiercely attacked because of my low prediction.

40M one year earlier? That's incredible.

Still believing in magic for the WiiU? That's also incredible ;)

These prediction threads are a fun read. Read the new comments. I think I'll read through the whole thread and see what gems I can find.

So many thought after the Wii Nintendo would be dominant in the home console market.... how wrong they were. It's quite sad really ,seeing all the hopeful Nintendo fans looking forward to the new generation back then and predicting great success for Nintendo.

Not that anyone could have predicted what actually happened. Sure I wasn't expecting Wii level numbers, but I definitely wasn't expecting under 40 million units sold...

Now we wait for the NX reveal, see whether the predictions for that are positive or negative and see whether this time the majority predict right or again the majority surprised on the performance of their next console, one way or the other.

Personally I'm almost certain the NX will reach the 35 million mark at the least, but as this thread shows anything can happen.

Of course his statement is correct. I didn't say it was wrong. Just that it's a useless prediction. It's like if I were to say "I predict that Pokemon Sun/Moon will sell about 0 units"

People would call me out on such a silly prediction, but if I wanted to, I could say something like this: "Hah, I was right. Rounding down to the closest billion, we end up with 0".

I mean, I'd still be correct. But I'd understand why people would call me out regardless, because it's a stupid statement.

No, you wouldn't. You'd only be correct if you said it would sell about 0 billion units.

Moreover, pleople use "more than" or "less than" when they're sure about the lower / upper limit (respectively) but they're unsure about the other limit. It's totally legitimate. When many people were saying WiiU would sell 100M, 150M, 200M, to claim it wouldn't sell more than 40M was not stupid / useless at all. On the contrary, it was a bold statement that clearly marked a line of thought.

I never expected the Wii U to sell as little as it did, but I did expect about 40 million when the Wii U was first revealed, and that was giving Nintendo the benefit of the doubt and expecting better specs than it ended up having. I also expected Nintendo to use the Gamepad more.

This wasn't in relation to Man-Bear-Pig's prediction, but a different user in this thread that yesterday said less than 35 million. Another user then asked him why he predicted such a high number now, when it's obvious the Wii U will come nowhere close to 35 million. He said that he "only predicted *less* than 35 million, so he would still be correct". My point was that relying on ambiguous wording and semantics only to claim your prediction is correct even when your prediction clearly is terrible is silly and removes the whole point of predicting. And I indeed think that predicting today that the Wii U will do less than 35 million is a useless prediction, even if it's "correct".

The same is true for my "about 0". Since you can't possibly now what I mean by "about", I could indeed say that 10 million is "about zero". After all, if you have a perspective of, let's say, a Googleplex, 10 million and 0 are in the same neighborhood of numbers, which is what "about" means in relation to number quantities. Hence why, when using imprecise words like "about", "less than" or "more than" while making predictions have to be accompanied by common sense. You can predict "Wii U will sell less than 35 million" today, like the user this discussion was about did, and the prediction is correct but the prediction is also terrible. Don't get me wrong though, at the time Man-Bear-Pig made his prediction, it was a very good prediction.

If that's the case, I agree that now his prediction of less than 35M is pretty useless, although not stupid (since it is correct and, I guess, not consensual - I bet there still are some Nintendo die hard fans expecting more than that).

"About" is indeed imprecise. But "less than" is pretty clear. Either the number is lesser or it's not. Where's the imprecision?

Yet, when you say "about 0 units" I know that 0.4 (if it could exist) would be about 0. 1.35 would already be about 1. When a game sells thousands or millions of units, there's no way it can be "about 0 units" (since your scale is in "units", not "billion units"). I think that's logical.

PS: Portugal is the european champion!!! I can't believe it! First title ever!!