Yeah sure, WiiU will be coming out, but remember that PS4 will be coming out next year too- that would affect PS3's sales, surely?

Joel.... you can't seriously believe that, can you? I thought your crazy predictions ended with GTA4 and GT5, etc.

By Nov 2013 (the latest a neXtBox and PS4 will launch) the PS3 will still be ~25 million less than the Wii's userbase.

PS3's 2011 was its peak. From here on out it will decline just as the Wii has for the last couple of years. This gen is effectively over. Wii won and PS360 are about equal, one will barely win over the other... more than likely PS3 will be 2nd.

To your points directly.

Bluray is not longer a major reason to buy a PS3. Bluray players are cheap now. People only buy PS3s now for gaming.

Price drops. Sure, a price drop always causes a limited bump in sales. LIMITED. The gen is over. By E3, people will all be talking about next gen. PS3's has peaked and will show YoY decreases from here on out.

Word of Mouth? wtf. Gen is over. People own at least one major console at this point. Most sales now are really late adopters or people buying 2nd machines. This is why overall game console sales have been down YoY.

Its over.

3rd parties are moving on. They have created new engines. They want new hardware. current hardware is on its way out. Wii and 360's will be avail for $100 to $120 before this year's out. PS3 will be the same before 2013 ends when PS4 launches.

There is no way in any circumstance will PS3 be able to catch a more than 30 million gap.

Nah not a chance. The Wii will most likely have some massive price cuts just before and when Wii U launches. If they sold it for a cheap enough price say £75 (it's possible) then it would get a big boost at the end. I can't see the PS3 coming within 10 million units.

Unless Sony wants to keep gen 7 around for as long as possible, I can't see this happening. Blue Ray isn't that big a deal, none of the upcoming PS3 games are THAT huge, and if price drops were a big deal, they Wii would be doing much better now.

well it's not hard to fathom really, i just would say it in public again. this is 2010 all over again, i'll never live it down.

it all depends on wht you mean by this gen.! do you mean Wiiu this gen., or 10 yr. vision 2016 this gen., cause whether anyone knows it or not, 2016 is when this gen. has its technical end, under Sonys 10 yr. plan. which does involve all 3 consoles.

and then there's that, when the system stops selling gen.

and before anyone quotes me, and ask a question i don't feel like answering. all i have to say is PC.

edit: care to give a timeline for your prediction with sales figures included?

Nah,even if it does it still wont me a market leader considering that sony had to lose a lot of money just to actually start selling the damn thing..599 us dollers wtf

PS3 might outsell 360, but it'll never outsell Wii.

Sorry your saying it will sell 30 million in two years pretty much? Wii U this year and the next xbox next year and PS4 next year as well. pretty much impossible

Even after all is said and done and the PS3 is finally discontinued, there's no way it surpasses the Wii in all time sales. Nintendo isn't going to pull the plug right away on the Wii after the Wii U launches... they'll be selling it for at least another year or two at just $99.99, and people in the casual market will still buy it as an entry level console. In order to surpass Wii, Sony would have to sell another 40-45 million units of the PS3 before it's discontinued. That's not going to happen in the next 2-3 years or so.

The PS3 is WAY too far behind the Wii and it is very late in the generation. It might pass the 360 though. The Wii will probably reach 107-115 million total, I don't see the PS3 reaching even 80-85m total.