Predicition: PS3 will outsell Wii by the end of this console generation

[superchunk]

Joel.... you can't seriously believe that, can you? I thought your crazy predictions ended with GTA4 and GT5, etc.

By Nov 2013 (the latest a neXtBox and PS4 will launch) the PS3 will still be ~25 million less than the Wii's userbase.

PS3's 2011 was its peak. From here on out it will decline just as the Wii has for the last couple of years. This gen is effectively over. Wii won and PS360 are about equal, one will barely win over the other... more than likely PS3 will be 2nd.

To your points directly.

Bluray is not longer a major reason to buy a PS3. Bluray players are cheap now. People only buy PS3s now for gaming.

Price drops. Sure, a price drop always causes a limited bump in sales. LIMITED. The gen is over. By E3, people will all be talking about next gen. PS3's has peaked and will show YoY decreases from here on out.

Word of Mouth? wtf. Gen is over. People own at least one major console at this point. Most sales now are really late adopters or people buying 2nd machines. This is why overall game console sales have been down YoY.

Its over.

3rd parties are moving on. They have created new engines. They want new hardware. current hardware is on its way out. Wii and 360's will be avail for $100 to $120 before this year's out. PS3 will be the same before 2013 ends when PS4 launches.

There is no way in any circumstance will PS3 be able to catch a more than 30 million gap.