Forums - Sales Discussion - Vita 2012 Predicted Sales Chartz 4.08 mil

Previously I made a thread polling everyones predicition on Vita's end of the year sales. The results are as follows:

Vita's end of year sales will be....

10+ million 34 15.18%
 
9 million 9 4.02%
 
8 million 33 14.73%
 
7 million 28 12.50%
 
6 million 38 16.96%
 
5 million 82 36.61%
 
Total: 224

 

In order to provide a greater understanding of predictable sales I've created a couple graphs. These graphs take the Vita sales up to its 17th week available on the market from launch on December 22nd, 2011 and extend a predicted path until December 31st, 2012 by applying the average weekly sales % change among all hardware over the course of 2011. The red area indicates actual Vita sales made in the past while the blue line indicates the predicted sales forcast based on 2011 weekly percentage change.

2011 might not be the most accurate year to use to predict sale effectively. An ongoing negative trend in industry sales, record 3DS sales, plummetting Wii sales, etc. I will consider creating graphs using years previous to see what their results may be and I might consider creating an averaging percentage change using that meta data.

*EDIT* Also it is my personal opinion that since Vita is a new piece of hardware it has a greater ability to sell above average percentage change. Current low sales also indicate a bottoming out and sales could have a surprising growth rate. In addition if Japan, Vita's current lowest market, decides to slow sales of PSPs than the Vita numbers could effectivly double. These factors could have a dramatic change in the outcome of these charts as well as any major decisions made by PlayStation or particularly high selling software releases.

 

I will update this thread weekly to effect actual changes in Vita sales so that a more accurate prediction can be made. As is, end of the year sales total:

 

Updated to December 29th


 4,084,193 Vitas sold by end of 2012!


Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

LT 2012 2012 LT FY 2012 FY 2012
4,084,193 3,602,620 4,848,382 3,328,576


Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

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5 million is my guess.

6 million if a huge breakthrough occurs such as what happened with the PSP (if anyone knows what I mean ;p).

Insanely high for holidays for what i know, but maybe e3 will give us something to belive it will.

Deoz said:
Insanely high for holidays for what i know, but maybe e3 will give us something to belive it will.


That's what holidays are like for the gaming industry, like I said based on last year average sales percentages.



Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(

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To deoz:

Of course the vita will get some good news at E3. That s what E3 is for.

 Bananaking was right, I was wrong. Like he always is. About the 3DS not selling at least 19.999 million in 2013...

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spurgeonryan said:
To deoz:

Of course the vita will get some good news at E3. That s what E3 is for.

Im hoping it's not ahother TGS tough, i dont want games just teleporting to vita. Anyway crossing fingers.
.



I still think the WiiU will have a massive impact on the sales of the Vita so I think 5 millopns max...

Looks good...had I seen the predicting thread I think I would have gone with 6 million. What are your explanations for the jump at week 35?

Edit, nevermind, read the rest of the OP.



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What happened on the vita at TGS? Either way we all know that E3 always brings some thing great to the table for all involved. I just wonder how much Sony is willing to do being in the hole that they are in financially.

 Bananaking was right, I was wrong. Like he always is. About the 3DS not selling at least 19.999 million in 2013...

http://www.gofundme.com/4uyups

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sam987 said:
I still think the WiiU will have a massive impact on the sales of the Vita so I think 5 millopns max...

Dont think so, i doubt either one will affect each other. It's not like Sony's is really implementing the vita/ps3 combo for games.