Vita 2012 Predicted Sales Chartz 4.08 mil

[Chark]

Previously I made a thread polling everyones predicition on Vita's end of the year sales. The results are as follows:

Vita's end of year sales will be....
10+ million	34	15.18%
9 million	9	4.02%
8 million	33	14.73%
7 million	28	12.50%
6 million	38	16.96%
5 million	82	36.61%
Total:	224

 

In order to provide a greater understanding of predictable sales I've created a couple graphs. These graphs take the Vita sales up to its 17th week available on the market from launch on December 22nd, 2011 and extend a predicted path until December 31st, 2012 by applying the average weekly sales % change among all hardware over the course of 2011. The red area indicates actual Vita sales made in the past while the blue line indicates the predicted sales forcast based on 2011 weekly percentage change.

2011 might not be the most accurate year to use to predict sale effectively. An ongoing negative trend in industry sales, record 3DS sales, plummetting Wii sales, etc. I will consider creating graphs using years previous to see what their results may be and I might consider creating an averaging percentage change using that meta data.

*EDIT* Also it is my personal opinion that since Vita is a new piece of hardware it has a greater ability to sell above average percentage change. Current low sales also indicate a bottoming out and sales could have a surprising growth rate. In addition if Japan, Vita's current lowest market, decides to slow sales of PSPs than the Vita numbers could effectivly double. These factors could have a dramatic change in the outcome of these charts as well as any major decisions made by PlayStation or particularly high selling software releases.

 

I will update this thread weekly to effect actual changes in Vita sales so that a more accurate prediction can be made. As is, end of the year sales total:

 

Updated to December 29th

 4,084,193 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

 

LT 2012	2012	LT FY 2012	FY 2012
4,084,193	3,602,620	4,848,382	3,328,576