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How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

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Switch shipment forecast for FY2019 ?

below 17 5 5.10%
 
17 8 8.16%
 
18 18 18.37%
 
19 9 9.18%
 
20 34 34.69%
 
21 6 6.12%
 
22 6 6.12%
 
23 4 4.08%
 
24 1 1.02%
 
25 or more 7 7.14%
 
Total:98

At this point, we can safely say that the Switch shipment will fall between 17 and 18M for the FY2018...But I am very curious of the next forecast they will announce for the period April 1st 2019 to March 31st 2020. The Switch should be up from FY2018 but somehow I don't imagine them provocating again with a 20M or more...Even if the Switch should have everything on her side to reach 20M+...

My personnal guest is a safe 19M.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 02 February 2019

Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (World Record)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

25M.Labo will explode very soon.



Knowing them they will most likely expect too much again. So I'll go with 20M.



Dr.Vita said:
Knowing them they will most likely expect too much again. So I'll go with 20M.

Which is not crazy, after 2017 they only had 4 "evergreen" titles, now they have 8 like this which will maintain in the top 20 everytime there won't be new releases from SONY and Microsoft.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (World Record)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Depends on when Pokemon and Animal Crossing launch. If late, probably close to 17, if both in the next couple months then 25 may be too small a number...

 

Especially if they launch cheaper more portable switch same time.



Dulfite said:

Depends on when Pokemon and Animal Crossing launch. If late, probably close to 17, if both in the next couple months then 25 may be too small a number...

 

Especially if they launch cheaper more portable switch same time.

Could the main Pokemon alone in begining of Decembre 2019 produce more sales than Smash + the 2 Pokemon remake + Mario Party ?



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (World Record)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

18m.

They'll take a more conservative approach after the ambitious goal (20m, an increase of 33%) wasn't reached in the current fiscal year. With Animal Crossing, Pokémon and Luigi's Mansion 3 they have a lineup of big sellers that matches up closely with SSBU, Pokémon and Super Mario Party, and a price reduction/revision should assure an increase. It's just that this time around they'll go with low end instead of high end expectation based on what they have in the works for the fiscal year.

If things go well, they exceed the forecast; if the turnout is meh, they meet the forecast.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Amnesia said:
Dulfite said:

Depends on when Pokemon and Animal Crossing launch. If late, probably close to 17, if both in the next couple months then 25 may be too small a number...

 

Especially if they launch cheaper more portable switch same time.

Could the main Pokemon alone in begining of Decembre 2019 produce more sales than Smash + the 2 Pokemon remake + Mario Party ?

Most likely yes, it will be a new gen and a lot of people are waiting for it



20m.

Seemed silly last year, but now the console is a bit older, has more games, is getting some big exclusives this year and also has a potential price cut/revision coming it's a more realistic target for this year. Still think it will be hard to achieve, but much more possible than it was last year.



Bet Shiken that COD would outsell Battlefield in 2018. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8749702

Amnesia said:

Could the main Pokemon alone in begining of Decembre 2019 produce more sales than Smash + the 2 Pokemon remake + Mario Party ?

No.

Too many people have made it a habit to overstate the impact of Pokémon on hardware sales. The way they talk about it, you'd think that Pokémon games have been selling 25m+ copies per installment, but the sales data shows otherwise.

Pokémon can be expected to sell 15-20m lifetime just like SSBU could be expected to, so Pokémon merely matches SSBU. Granted, Pokémon's initial sell-through will be higher than SSBU's, but its legs will be shorter because new Pokémon titles are released more frequently than SSB games. Similar lifetime sales, but different sales curves.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club