Quantcast
How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

Forums - Sales Discussion - How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

Switch shipment forecast for FY2019 ?

below 17 5 5.10%
 
17 8 8.16%
 
18 18 18.37%
 
19 9 9.18%
 
20 34 34.69%
 
21 6 6.12%
 
22 6 6.12%
 
23 4 4.08%
 
24 1 1.02%
 
25 or more 7 7.14%
 
Total:98
Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

So can now I have an agreement that Reggie was BSing when pointing to the time in development as reason for RDR2 not showing on Switch? Because before you said he was right.

I also couple of times said he is partially right, again, even if they wanted to release RDR2 on Switch they couldn't because huge development time of game that becgn around 7 years before Switch was released.

And I have pointed to you the obvious information that 2 years is more than enough time to port it. So he isn't partially right, he was just doing PR damage control.

Plenty of games got ported in much lower time. From memory even remasters take less than this time on small studios. So a game with 3000 people I don't really think 2 years to adequate the engine would be insurmountable obstacle. Again, how many games we know started development in other platforms and just at the end got ported? 



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

I also couple of times said he is partially right, again, even if they wanted to release RDR2 on Switch they couldn't because huge development time of game that becgn around 7 years before Switch was released.

And I have pointed to you the obvious information that 2 years is more than enough time to port it. So he isn't partially right, he was just doing PR damage control.

Plenty of games got ported in much lower time. From memory even remasters take less than this time on small studios. So a game with 3000 people I don't really think 2 years to adequate the engine would be insurmountable obstacle. Again, how many games we know started development in other platforms and just at the end got ported? 

No you didnt, its enough for porting of already released game, we talking about developing of new game, and when game was released Switch was around 1.5 years old, and we  talking about game that was around 8 years in development.

Porting already released game and developing new game is not same thing, and we dont talking about ordinary game, we talking about 7-8 years development time, while most other AAA games are done in around 3 years.

I really don't see point continue discussion with you so I will not reply to you anym0ore, you keep twist things, claims things that no one said (your first reply to me didn't have anything with my post) or force me to wrote points that I already wrote to you, like you don't know what exactly you trying to prove here.



Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

And I have pointed to you the obvious information that 2 years is more than enough time to port it. So he isn't partially right, he was just doing PR damage control.

Plenty of games got ported in much lower time. From memory even remasters take less than this time on small studios. So a game with 3000 people I don't really think 2 years to adequate the engine would be insurmountable obstacle. Again, how many games we know started development in other platforms and just at the end got ported? 

No you didnt, its enough for porting of already released game, we talking about developing of new game, and when game was released Switch was around 1.5 years old, and we  talking about game that was around 8 years in development.

Porting already released game and developing new game is not same thing, and we dont talking about ordinary game, we talking about 7-8 years development time, while most other AAA games are done in around 3 years.

I really don't see point continue discussion with you so I will not reply to you anym0ore, you keep twist things, claims things that no one said (your first reply to me didn't have anything with my post) or force me to wrote points that I already wrote to you, like you don't know what exactly you trying to prove here.

We have seem game development taking more like 5 years for AAA than 3 years, 3 years are more likely when using same engine and assets. But if we go with your 3 years, then Switch was know for about 2 years before release of RDR2, so if a full game can be done fully in 3 years it become even more unlikely that it can't be ported in 2.

So you think it is harder a game while in development than a finished game? And when hearing how easy is to port to Switch, how long will we have to wait to see Switch port of it? Will it keep most of the game intact?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

Could the main Pokemon alone in begining of Decembre 2019 produce more sales than Smash + the 2 Pokemon remake + Mario Party ?

No.

Too many people have made it a habit to overstate the impact of Pokémon on hardware sales. The way they talk about it, you'd think that Pokémon games have been selling 25m+ copies per installment, but the sales data shows otherwise.

Pokémon can be expected to sell 15-20m lifetime just like SSBU could be expected to, so Pokémon merely matches SSBU. Granted, Pokémon's initial sell-through will be higher than SSBU's, but its legs will be shorter because new Pokémon titles are released more frequently than SSB games. Similar lifetime sales, but different sales curves.

Pokemon not drive much hardware now, but Animal Crossing is another consumer, sell less software but increase more hardware, i beleive.



Pokemon may not have as much of a sales boost because they already did release a pretty high profile Pokemon game last fall, Pokemon are important characters in Smash as well, and generally speaking Pokemon fans tend to like other Nintendo IP too so it's not like they just sit there waiting for Pokemon to release.

I would forecast 18 mill with the internal expectation to sell 19+ (but not saying this publicly) if they have a nice new model this year and maybe a price cut too.

If they want to be selling 20 mill/year+ they will have to embrace the Pro/X model that Sony/MS have. You need to have two models that can sell concurrently (rather than just a revision that replaces the old model) to get that kind of a sales boost. I would say both sales of PS4 and XB1 would be 15-25% lower what they are right now if they didn't have the Pro/X model. 



Soundwave said:

Pokemon may not have as much of a sales boost because they already did release a pretty high profile Pokemon game last fall, Pokemon are important characters in Smash as well, and generally speaking Pokemon fans tend to like other Nintendo IP too so it's not like they just sit there waiting for Pokemon to release.

I would forecast 18 mill with the internal expectation to sell 19+ (but not saying this publicly) if they have a nice new model this year and maybe a price cut too.

If they want to be selling 20 mill/year+ they will have to embrace the Pro/X model that Sony/MS have. You need to have two models that can sell concurrently (rather than just a revision that replaces the old model) to get that kind of a sales boost. I would say both sales of PS4 and XB1 would be 15-25% lower what they are right now if they didn't have the Pro/X model. 

In the West Let's Go performed on par with a mainline title but in Japan it did less than half so Gen 8 has potential to move hardware.

And that's the great thing about Switch, it can go a whole bunch of different ways with revisions.

Handheld only sku-$199

Console only sku-$169 or $199 w/pair of Joy-Cons

"Pro" hybrid sku-$299

 

At the moment Nintendo has Switch, 2DS, New 2DS XL, New 3DS XL, NES Classic & SNES Classic all on shelves ranging between $59-299.

They have stated that NES/SNES Classic are done getting shipments, N3DS XL is likely out of production (210k shipped April-Dec 2018) and the 2DS/2DS XL only have another year or so before they are done.

Nintendo isnt just going to let all of their lower end price points disappear so they are definitely going to offer up some type of sub-$200 Switch skus along with a potential N64 and/or Gameboy Classic to fill that sub-$100 price point.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

Pokemon may not have as much of a sales boost because they already did release a pretty high profile Pokemon game last fall, Pokemon are important characters in Smash as well, and generally speaking Pokemon fans tend to like other Nintendo IP too so it's not like they just sit there waiting for Pokemon to release.

I would forecast 18 mill with the internal expectation to sell 19+ (but not saying this publicly) if they have a nice new model this year and maybe a price cut too.

If they want to be selling 20 mill/year+ they will have to embrace the Pro/X model that Sony/MS have. You need to have two models that can sell concurrently (rather than just a revision that replaces the old model) to get that kind of a sales boost. I would say both sales of PS4 and XB1 would be 15-25% lower what they are right now if they didn't have the Pro/X model. 

In the West Let's Go performed on par with a mainline title but in Japan it did less than half so Gen 8 has potential to move hardware.

And that's the great thing about Switch, it can go a whole bunch of different ways with revisions.

Handheld only sku-$199

Console only sku-$169 or $199 w/pair of Joy-Cons

"Pro" hybrid sku-$299

 

At the moment Nintendo has Switch, 2DS, New 2DS XL, New 3DS XL, NES Classic & SNES Classic all on shelves ranging between $59-299.

They have stated that NES/SNES Classic are done getting shipments, N3DS XL is likely out of production (210k shipped April-Dec 2018) and the 2DS/2DS XL only have another year or so before they are done.

Nintendo isnt just going to let all of their lower end price points disappear so they are definitely going to offer up some type of sub-$200 Switch skus along with a potential N64 and/or Gameboy Classic to fill that sub-$100 price point.

I don't think we'll see a sub $250 Switch any time that soon, but I guess we'll see. 

Selling 20 million a year is hard too, I think that is also lost ... 17-18 million/year is still very healthy. What Sony does very well that Nintendo doesn't is they have longer tails for their hardware, so Playstation hardware often doesn't peak that high, but they sell over 6, 7, 8 years. 

Whereas Nintendo tends to peak harder and then suffer a harder drop-off particularly in the back end years of their product cycle. I think they're going to have to figure out a way to prevent that, whether that's embracing a Pro model setup, more third party help, or whatever. 



Where is the 1 million option?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.