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How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

Forums - Sales Discussion - How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

Switch shipment forecast for FY2019 ?

below 17 5 5.10%
 
17 8 8.16%
 
18 18 18.37%
 
19 9 9.18%
 
20 34 34.69%
 
21 6 6.12%
 
22 6 6.12%
 
23 4 4.08%
 
24 1 1.02%
 
25 or more 7 7.14%
 
Total:98

20 million.

Because round numbers are cool.



15 Million.

Sales will split between the Switch and and the new portable system, since they will run the same games.

15 Million Switches + 8 Million of new portable = 23 Million systems per year. It's a good number.



Edigar said:
15 Million.

Sales will split between the Switch and and the new portable system, since they will run the same games.

15 Million Switches + 8 Million of new portable = 23 Million systems per year. It's a good number.

How can be new portable system if they run same games?



18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

Last edited by colafitte - on 03 February 2019

colafitte said:

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

You have to consider that 3DS have the peak in first/second year, with a 50$/€ price cut and a revision (XL version)... Switch haven't got any price cut or revision by now and is still far ahead of 3DS launch aligned. You have to consider also the fact that most of games on Switch are already bestseller of the series which are belong to: SMO best selling Mario 3D game of all time, Zelda BotW best seling Zelda game of all time, Mario Tennis Aces best selling Mario Tennis game of all time and is on the way to become the best selling Tennis game of all time and so on



AlbiNecroxz said:
colafitte said:

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

You have to consider that 3DS have the peak in first/second year, with a 50$/€ price cut and a revision (XL version)... Switch haven't got any price cut or revision by now and is still far ahead of 3DS launch aligned. You have to consider also the fact that most of games on Switch are already bestseller of the series which are belong to: SMO best selling Mario 3D game of all time, Zelda BotW best seling Zelda game of all time, Mario Tennis Aces best selling Mario Tennis game of all time and is on the way to become the best selling Tennis game of all time and so on

Your point in the price cut still yet to happen for Switch is a good point. Switch is not "far ahead". I did say how much compare to each other in the same timeframe 32m vs 29m (shipped). That's not "far ahead to me". 3DS and Switch sold around 13M during first calendar year and 3DS sold 14M and Switch around 16'5M in the second (according to VGC). There's not so much differnece. And the games coming in 2019 for Switch are very very similar to same IP's 3DS received on its 3rd year. And in my opinion, the price cut will not help as much as people expect either, it will just help the sales to not drop.

As for the games point. I see it as..., people already bought that much switch because the games they wanted were already available and were extremely good, so that brought your consumers to Switch earlier than normal.

Expecting Switch to sell way more than 3DS because its softaware is selling better, is not a good reason. Switch software is selling way better than Wii back then and Wii will be very far ahead in sales in just a few months (because Wii will receive its 2008 sales in next months).

Switch sales are amazing as they are. People are understimating how difficult is to sell more than 15M consoles in a year.... PS3, X360, 3DS weren't capable to do it, and Swtich is doing that at $300 price. If it sells 17-18M in 2019 it will be another resounding success for Nintendo.



colafitte said:

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

3DS managed to those numbers in second year with revision in 2nd year and huge price cut in 1st year, and Switch without those things started performing stronger than 3DS in same time period and difference will much bigger how time is passing. Maybe you dont realise, but 3DS had only 2 FY above 13m, and only 3 above 10m, first full FY was 13.5m, 2nd full FY was 14m, and 3rd was 12.2m, while on other hand Switch has 15m in full 1st year and it will have around 17m in its full 2nd year and thats still whithout any revision and price cut compared to 3DS. With all that on mind, Switch sales looks much more stronger, healthier and much more promising than 3DS sales ever were.

Only 1m more in FY 2019. compared to FY 2018. sounds too low because 2019. FY Switch lineup will be much stronger than 2018. FY was, and Switch will have most likely have revision and price cut in FY 2019.



colafitte said:
AlbiNecroxz said:

You have to consider that 3DS have the peak in first/second year, with a 50$/€ price cut and a revision (XL version)... Switch haven't got any price cut or revision by now and is still far ahead of 3DS launch aligned. You have to consider also the fact that most of games on Switch are already bestseller of the series which are belong to: SMO best selling Mario 3D game of all time, Zelda BotW best seling Zelda game of all time, Mario Tennis Aces best selling Mario Tennis game of all time and is on the way to become the best selling Tennis game of all time and so on

Your point in the price cut still yet to happen for Switch is a good point. Switch is not "far ahead". I did say how much compare to each other in the same timeframe 32m vs 29m (shipped). That's not "far ahead to me". 3DS and Switch sold around 13M during first calendar year and 3DS sold 14M and Switch around 16'5M in the second (according to VGC). There's not so much differnece. And the games coming in 2019 for Switch are very very similar to same IP's 3DS received on its 3rd year. And in my opinion, the price cut will not help as much as people expect either, it will just help the sales to not drop.

As for the games point. I see it as..., people already bought that much switch because the games they wanted were already available and were extremely good, so that brought your consumers to Switch earlier than normal.

Expecting Switch to sell way more than 3DS because its softaware is selling better, is not a good reason. Switch software is selling way better than Wii back then and Wii will be very far ahead in sales in just a few months (because Wii will receive its 2008 sales in next months).

Switch sales are amazing as they are. People are understimating how difficult is to sell more than 15M consoles in a year.... PS3, X360, 3DS weren't capable to do it, and Swtich is doing that at $300 price. If it sells 17-18M in 2019 it will be another resounding success for Nintendo.

Sorry, I thought it did less XD. By the way, we have to wait March sales if we really want to compare sales and by then we'll know if Switch will be up YoY on the third year or not. That's interesting



Dr.Vita said:
Knowing them they will most likely expect too much again. So I'll go with 20M.

With Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing and Pokemon in one year and coming on the heels of a Smash/PLG which seemingly boosted the baseline quite a bit, I wouldn't exactly think of 20M as expecting too much, and more like conservative estimation.



RolStoppable said:
18m.

They'll take a more conservative approach after the ambitious goal (20m, an increase of 33%) wasn't reached in the current fiscal year. With Animal Crossing, Pokémon and Luigi's Mansion 3 they have a lineup of big sellers that matches up closely with SSBU, Pokémon and Super Mario Party, and a price reduction/revision should assure an increase. It's just that this time around they'll go with low end instead of high end expectation based on what they have in the works for the fiscal year.

If things go well, they exceed the forecast; if the turnout is meh, they meet the forecast.

That's also a possibility, of course