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colafitte on 03 February 2019
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Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

3DS managed to those numbers in second year with revision in 2nd year and huge price cut in 1st year, and Switch without those things started performing stronger than 3DS in same time period and difference will much bigger how time is passing. Maybe you dont realise, but 3DS had only 2 FY above 13m, and only 3 above 10m, first full FY was 13.5m, 2nd full FY was 14m, and 3rd was 12.2m, while on other hand Switch has 15m in full 1st year and it will have around 17m in its full 2nd year and thats still whithout any revision and price cut compared to 3DS. With all that on mind, Switch sales looks much more stronger, healthier and much more promising than 3DS sales ever were.

Only 1m more in FY 2019. compared to FY 2018. sounds too low because 2019. FY Switch lineup will be much stronger than 2018. FY was, and Switch will have most likely have revision and price cut in FY 2019.

Nope to almost all the 1st paragraph for the reasons i said in my previous post. Switch hardware sales are not "much more stronger, healthier" than 3DS. They are just better, just that, and i really think they are because Switch gmes in its first 2 years were better than 3DS ones, so that brought a lot more people despite Switch being more expensive. 

Switch and 3DS were tied during first FY, Switch is going to have better sales in 2nd and 3rd. But that doesn't mean Switch is going to sell way better in the 3rd than the 2nd. People are trying too hard to convert Switch in DS and Wii, and Switch is not them. It will have a different pace during its lifetime, and my opinion, more similar to 3DS. Just my opinion of course.

And no to the second point too. Sorry Miyamotoo, you know we have already had this same discussion multiple times..... I still don't see this year having "much stronger lineup" than 2018. And even if it has better lineup this year, it doesn't need to translate to more hardware sales either. There are multiple examples in others consoles history where better software didn't translate to better sales (PS4 this year for example), but 3DS was the better one to compare because of how much they sold in 2014 compared to 2013, despite 2014 having better games (Monster Hunter 4, Pokemon X/Y, Luigi's Mansion 3D, Yokai Watch, Donkey Kong Country 3D, ....).