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Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

That's why if 3DS ends around 78-79M sold lifetime, i expect Switch around 85-90M by the end too. Switch is going to take the advantage this years, but like 3DS after 3rd year, is going to drop a lot, for Switch it will be 2020, and in 2021 probably will be a below 10M console per year console by then.

I think i already said how much i expect Switch doing

29'5 at the end of 2018

17M in 2019 -> 46'5M LT

12M in 2020 -> 58'5M LT

9M in 2021  ->  67'5M LT

7'5M in 2022 -> 75'0M LT

7M in 2023  ->  82'0M  LT

and from there a few million more until stops around 87-88M.

That's a very specific and very difficult prediction to make, so i will be most probably wrong, but it's the pace i'm expecting. I know this crashes with every Nintendo fan here expecting Switch to sell more than 100M but this is my honest prediction, and it's based in the same reasons that made me believe 9-10M were going to be shipped in Q3 and the same reasons i was sure Switch was not going to reach 20M this FY.

Software sales, is different. I think the people expecting every IP from Nintendo selling the best ever on Switch are going to be right in the end. I said months ago i expected Smash Bros ending around 16-17M, but now is very probable it could surpass that, although i still think selling 5-6M more after such a huge launch is still a difficult task. 

I cant comment your prediction for sales because you didnt said why you expect those numbers, but when you make disccusion and comparing numbers pls stick to shipped numbers, because we getting oficcall shipped numbers from Nintendo, and we also have shipped numbers from 3DS, its much harder to track sold numbers, so stick to facts, at end of 2018. Switch is at 32.3m.

I already explained multiple times why is my reasoning for this year, for the next ones there's no possible way to explain them. 

As for the numbers, fair point. 

Shipped by fiscal year:

FY 2019  18M

FY 2020  11M

FY 2021  10M

FY 2022   7M

FY 2023   5M

So around 85M shipped by March 2024.

Last edited by colafitte - on 03 February 2019