Well, I think we should all know by now that they like to aim high.  So I think they will go for 20m again.

BUT that will depend on if the rumors about a cheaper, handheld only model coming out this year are true.  In which case I expect them to aim for 25m.

Well, I think they are going to stick with a more realistic goal, given that the announcement of dropping this year's FY goal by a whopping 3M led to a drop in stock price. So, they will probably go with their original 20M, but given that this will likely be a peak year, with a Pokemon game and probably a small price cut, they should be able to hit it.

If 200$ switch mini, I'd say they go being 20M. Like 23+.
Otherwise, 18.

I think it's possible. Animal Crossing can attract an audience very few franchises in gaming could: women, especially in Japan. Animal Crossing as a franchise appears to have struck a cord with women and if the cards are played right and the game delivers quality-wise, I think we will get another great Animal Crossing hit.

Pokemon Gen 8 will be interesting as it will be a new generation on a home console. Pokemon Let's Go has been able to succeed as a remake of Pokemon Yellow with Pokemon Go elements. Now we will see how a new generation of Pokemon will fare as the developers will focus on the handheld aspects of Pokemon through this upcoming game(s).

As for a price cut, I think the Switch can make it without a price cut...As long as the potential Switch mini hits the mark and allows families to buy more Switch units for the household. I wonder if Nintendo will prioritize more on profiting on the Switch as much as they can or attract new consumers with a price cut...?

They’ll go with 20 again.

20 million.

Because round numbers are cool.

15 Million.

Sales will split between the Switch and and the new portable system, since they will run the same games.

15 Million Switches + 8 Million of new portable = 23 Million systems per year. It's a good number.

How can be new portable system if they run same games?

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

You have to consider that 3DS have the peak in first/second year, with a 50$/€ price cut and a revision (XL version)... Switch haven't got any price cut or revision by now and is still far ahead of 3DS launch aligned. You have to consider also the fact that most of games on Switch are already bestseller of the series which are belong to: SMO best selling Mario 3D game of all time, Zelda BotW best seling Zelda game of all time, Mario Tennis Aces best selling Mario Tennis game of all time and is on the way to become the best selling Tennis game of all time and so on