I talking about percent not about numbers, expecting around 33% less shipped numbers from 3. to 4. FY is huge drop in any case. There is no way that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.
So by your point, better lineup, first price cut and first revision dont have effect on sales, espacily when we talk about consoles that yets need to enter its 3. year on market?
You told me 18M to 12M is a 33% drop and too much, and i tell you, that 17M shipped then is more probably so the drop is less.
And the "there is no way...." reminds me of some discussions we had about how much Switch was going to do in Q3 and Q4 and how there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3, or that i was missing a point, etc according to you.....As proved..., there IS a way.
And don't put words in my mouth i did not say Miyamotoo!!. My point is, not better lineup, probably (not guaranteed) price cut or revision (not both of them at the same time), and if it's just a price cut, it won't be more than $50, so the sales won't be impacted as much as you want. If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before. So without price drop, Switch should be around 16M this year, with price cut or revision, around 17-17'5M (shipments i am saying). That's really my point.
And there is very unlikely that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.
I was saying around 10m hole time, at end Q3 shipment was 9.4m, that's actually is around 10m. Actualy only surprise is lowered forecasted Q4, 2.5m and that's less than even same period of last year, but we will know in month or two why Nintendo done that (maybe Nintendo will announce Switch Mini soon with launch in April-May and that would clearly effect on Q4 sales of FY 2018).
But I already gave exact titles (and that's even without 3rd party games) that clearly shows that 2019. lineup will be stronger in any case than 2018. and you ignored that, you saying "not better lineup", but based on what? Certainly not on things we do know, and with games we dont know lineup can be only much stronger.
But even $50 price difference will make notable boost in sales in any case (first price cut always do that), also its not point only about price cut, revisions itself boost sales. But imagine situation where you having low price point Switch Mini (like Nikkei rumored fey days ago suggested) for around $200, and than at end of year price cut for current Switch at $250.
"If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", this just show you dont know what you talking about, price cuts are not made only when sales are not good, but also when you want much stronger sales or much stronger software sales, or productions costs went down, every console, even best selling consoles of all time had price cuts and most of them had before 3rd year on market, by time cost of production of some console is going down so you have price cut while in same time you can keep same profit margin that you had before price cut.