Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:
You told me 18M to 12M is a 33% drop and too much, and i tell you, that 17M shipped then is more probably so the drop is less.
And the "there is no way...." reminds me of some discussions we had about how much Switch was going to do in Q3 and Q4 and how there was no way Switch was going to ship just 9M in Q3, or that i was missing a point, etc according to you.....As proved..., there IS a way.
And don't put words in my mouth i did not say Miyamotoo!!. My point is, not better lineup, probably (not guaranteed) price cut or revision (not both of them at the same time), and if it's just a price cut, it won't be more than $50, so the sales won't be impacted as much as you want. If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before. So without price drop, Switch should be around 16M this year, with price cut or revision, around 17-17'5M (shipments i am saying). That's really my point.
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And there is very unlikely that this FY will be 17m, if 2018. FY with weaker lineup, without price cut and revision will be at around 17m.
I was saying around 10m hole time, at end Q3 shipment was 9.4m, that's actually is around 10m. Actualy only surprise is lowered forecasted Q4, 2.5m and that's less than even same period of last year, but we will know in month or two why Nintendo done that (maybe Nintendo will announce Switch Mini soon with launch in April-May and that would clearly effect on Q4 sales of FY 2018).
But I already gave exact titles (and that's even without 3rd party games) that clearly shows that 2019. lineup will be stronger in any case than 2018. and you ignored that, you saying "not better lineup", but based on what? Certainly not on things we do know, and with games we dont know lineup can be only much stronger.
But even $50 price difference will make notable boost in sales in any case (first price cut always do that), also its not point only about price cut, revisions itself boost sales. But imagine situation where you having low price point Switch Mini (like Nikkei rumored fey days ago suggested) for around $200, and than at end of year price cut for current Switch at $250.
"If they do that is because they're afraid to drop sales from the year before", this just show you dont know what you talking about, price cuts are not made only when sales are not good, but also when you want much stronger sales or much stronger software sales, or productions costs went down, every console, even best selling consoles of all time had price cuts and most of them had before 3rd year on market, by time cost of production of some console is going down so you have price cut while in same time you can keep same profit margin that you had before price cut.
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Oh no, you said you expected 18-19M "at least" by your own words back then when i always said 17-18M at most..You were pretty convinced Switch was capable of doing 20M shipped and i was pretty convined it was going to ship way less than that, don't backpedal now!!.
I didn't ingnored any comments. Why always says to me that i'm not listening, or i am not getting the point???, ... I AM!!, believe me!!..XDD. Is just that i don't expect any of those games to sell better than Smash+Pokemon 2018+Mario Party combo from 2018, or do you really think the 3 best selling games from Switch in 2019 will surpass the 3 best selling games of 2018? In my case, i don't.
And the $50 price wil make a boost, a boost of 1-1'5M, like i said, but not much more.
How i'm not going to know what i'm talking about if i have been correct in what i expected for Switch this last quarter almost perfectly, (Shipments and VGC sales)????, please don't understimate my opinion like this...I think i deserve some benefit of the doubt at least, don't you think?.
Price cuts are used to avoid selling/profiting less. If you are selling on expectations or even better, you don't low the price, period. 99% of the games in the market low the price after a few months. Nintendo games don't, why??, because they don't need to. The same reason applies here for hardware. Price dops in other consoles never served to jump sales 20-30% from a previous year if that console was already selling well. The times when that happened were when the console was underachieving expectations (3ds in 2011 or PS3 back then in 2008 and 2009). Switch is not doing that. I think sales will be affected this year if there is no price cut. That's why i think there will be a price cut in the line this year (if it's not a revision), and why i expect 17-17'5M (maybe even 18M) shipped this year. If, for whatever reason, Nintendo decides not cutting the price because they feel they don't need to, i'm pretty sure Switch will sell less in 2019 than in 2018.
In summary:
No price cut/revision : Switch ships 16M FY2019
$50 price cut/revision: Switch ships 17-18M FY 2019 (this is my personal bet).
Reasons: 1st half of 2019 being weak in new games, like 2018 was. In the 2nd half of the year Animal Crossing, Pokemon 2019 (if it launch in 2019, something that has yet to be confirmed by the way), Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion, and every other game you always name....not surpassing Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2018, Super Mario Party, rest of games from 2018 saleswise compared to 2017 ones. So in the end, as whole for the year, a good lineup, but not neccesarily better.
Switch doing extremely fine if they sell the same or even a 5% better than last year. Nintendo really happy with that and software/service profits.
This is just my opinion, based in recent and old trajectories from Switch, other Nintendo consoles and the situation of the market in 2019. You are not going to convince me otherwise. So, like always, we should stop here, and we will see who is right in the end.
Last edited by colafitte - on 04 February 2019
