With announcement of The Last Story and Xenoblade, Nintendo looks to have two quality RPG offering for Japan in 2010. While I have no doubt that both games will perform way better than ARF, Kizuna (what a nightmare it was), Rune Factory, I'm not sure if either of them will become a big hit. I understand it's really early and we know nothing about the games yet. However, I'm wondering what your expectations are for both games. Will they outsell ToG, which many considered as a disappointment? (ToG's sale is decent but somewhat disappoiting to me) Can they become moderate hits (300K+) and receive sequels or spawn a new franchise?

Here is my take.

The Last Story: It will outsell ToG. If Blue Dragon can sell 210K in Japan on 360, TLS should sell more than that. It's Sakaguchi so we know the quality should be there. My early guess on this game is it will sell 300K+ in Japan and receive a sequel (either on Wii or on the successor of Wii).

Xenoblade: The potential of this Tetsuya Takahashi project is an interesting one. Xenogears and Xenosaga were loved by many but at the same time, sales for late Xenosaga game was not that good and Soma Bringer didn't really light the chart on fire when it was released for DS (110K). My early guess on this game is it will sell 150K-200K in Japan. Not a huge success but certainly decent sales.

They should, as previewly mentioned, these two epic wii only games came out of know-where.

I don't think Xenoblade will take off all that well but I have extremely high hopes for The Last Story.

The Last Story is definitely gonna sell well, don't know about Xenoblade. ToG will probab;y end up somewhere in the middle.

Dude Xenoblade and Last Story will but ToG to fuckin shame.. Hell yea they will.. and if they dont I will loose all faith in JRPG community in the Wii fanbase

Nooo, I voted "Xenoblade" only, but wanted to vote "Last Story" only >.

ironicly i voted "only if the reviews are good" since only great reviews from major gaming websites like IGN and gamespot seem to sell alot.

however quality-wise, is all a matter of opinion.

If the president of Enterbrain is right (game like-games don't sell on the Wii) they will probably bomb just like ToG.

Since I don't live in Japan and that guy knows more about the Japanese market than everyone here, I'l go with what he says.

Neither will.
ToG had whole Tales of ... history working for it. And 36/40 score from Famitsu so probably it was quite good too (I can't find any import review at the moment).

So i don't see new IP overtaking good quality recognized series title.

@Zlejedi
Xenoblade has the "xeno" in its name and it's made by monolith whose jp fanbase is quite decent.
I believe both of them will outsell tales of graces.