With announcement of The Last Story and Xenoblade, Nintendo looks to have two quality RPG offering for Japan in 2010. While I have no doubt that both games will perform way better than ARF, Kizuna (what a nightmare it was), Rune Factory, I'm not sure if either of them will become a big hit. I understand it's really early and we know nothing about the games yet. However, I'm wondering what your expectations are for both games. Will they outsell ToG, which many considered as a disappointment? (ToG's sale is decent but somewhat disappoiting to me) Can they become moderate hits (300K+) and receive sequels or spawn a new franchise?
Here is my take.
The Last Story: It will outsell ToG. If Blue Dragon can sell 210K in Japan on 360, TLS should sell more than that. It's Sakaguchi so we know the quality should be there. My early guess on this game is it will sell 300K+ in Japan and receive a sequel (either on Wii or on the successor of Wii).
Xenoblade: The potential of this Tetsuya Takahashi project is an interesting one. Xenogears and Xenosaga were loved by many but at the same time, sales for late Xenosaga game was not that good and Soma Bringer didn't really light the chart on fire when it was released for DS (110K). My early guess on this game is it will sell 150K-200K in Japan. Not a huge success but certainly decent sales.
MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.
