In comparison to NSMB2 at the same time frame:

NSMB2 (3DS): 29 pts

NSMB Wii: No number. It was between 30 and 36

NSMB (DS): 77 points. But preorders started

That said, NSMB and NSMB Wii preorders started Waaaay before NSMB2. It's still on the same pace with the Wii version which ended up at 1072 points while the DS version had 688 points at release. I can do a daily comparison if you guys want.

NSMB2 will sell Millions in Japan. Literally. Millions.

This is like saying a COD won't sell. It will. 

I'm not denying it will sell millions and give profits or push systems. But what if it stops at 3-3.5m japan only? To me it would look like the flop of Animal Crossing Wii, which was thought to be a great system seller like ACWW. NSMB2 not only needs to push systems, it needs to have acceptable results compared to previous 2D Mario games, which all sold extremely well. Even a difference of 1m would be enough for Nintendo to worry since they're heavily basing their 3DS line-up and Wii U launch around Mario.

I'm not saying it's already certain, but IMHO what we're gonna see are worse than expected sales, due to the overmilking of their character in the last year (Mario Kart, Mario 3D, Mario Tennis, NSMB2, Paper Mario, NSMBU all in 12 months) and not much improvements (power-ups or whatever) from NSMBW.

Fair analysis.

I concur.

I think it's too early to say. 2D Mario proved to be huge hits on the DS and Wii. It sold over 6 mil for DS, adn was the biggest game ona  home console since the NES on the Wii (second of all time on home consoles). Right now it's on track with the Wii version, but it's only been available for preorder for a much shorter time. I think anything between 700 and 1000 points is huge, and it might, just might, be the first 3DS game to sell 1 mil in a week me thinks

it was available for preorder much longer than nsmb2, and it didn't have the benifit of being able to download it as well. It will do more, this is on the same track as the new super mario bros wii.

Don't be so conservative.