800K first week

I've been getting the feeling that jumping on John's crazy prediction boat will end up as a one-way trip to crow-town for me, but I ain't jumping off just yet. Japan has been getting crazier by the day, and reality just might be twisted enough in a month's time for this to happen. =P

I know, after the financial disaster Activision faced with Guitar Hero I think Nintendo should have learned their lesson; they should have focused on making a generic shooter where you fight Aliens in a ruined city because that would be so unique and capture a whole new audience.

I think it will sell around 100k since all you do it exercise with it and nothing else right now. So it do not see it selling that well at all. I would rather go to a gym and exercise rather then letting my Wii tell me I am fat or overweight.

Honestly the mindset associated with this title since it was announced has gone from whimsical to flat out disturbing. That said the reality has not changed in the least. We are talking about a new intellectual property. Based on a radically new concept. Which ironically comes with a higher price tag thanks to technology that is, and will almost always be proprietary to a single game. The reason it is ironic is because the titles greatest potential strength the gimmick attached is also the throbbing weak spot.

The history of Nintendo peripherals is a sordid tale of epic failures. Let me toss out a few names for you. SuperScope, Four Score, Power Pad, Rob the Robot, Power Glove. Notice how all those peripherals are unconventional. They all received negligible support past their primary offerings as well. The most successful peripherals they produced were actually modest, and packed with the games. Further more they did not impair standard gaming. Things like the rumble pack.

The point I am making is this. There is no reason other then the faith that Nintendo does not make mistakes anymore. However history has shown that this scheme is a disaster waiting to happen. The concept behind the game is untested there might not even be a market for this game. Then you have the competition with more conventional games.

The game can either be a great success, or an abysmal failure. There is little middle ground either there is a market for it, or there is not a market for it. Nobody knows if there is a market for it. So why assume their is a market for it. Brain Training is hardly comparable, and neither is Wii Sports. That said I would err on the side of caution.

I predict a flop only since Nintendo has flopped me a few times already, and this game with its peripheral feels exactly the same to me. Wii Fit has all the defining characteristics. I have come to expect this from a console manufacturer that desperately wants to market peripherals. Even if they have no intention of supporting them.

Day 1. 5,000
Week 1. 20,000
Month 1. 50,000

I agree with Dodece, actually.

 Here's your reference.

OT, I think around 400k first week. I think it will have good sales, but the kind of people that will buy it wouldn't rush to stores.

No, I don't get what game he's referring to. Unless, of course, he's referring to the general cliche that runs through the genre.

Also, you have to remember that this is a thread for JAPAN. And comparing Guitar Hero to WiiFit is a bit odd. The targeted demographics are very different.

 wow, you're like the polar twin of john lucas.

 you two aren't the same guy, right?  j/k.